For complex industrial processes with multiple operational conditions, it is important to develop effective monitoring algorithms to ensure the safety of production processes. This paper proposes a novel monitoring st...For complex industrial processes with multiple operational conditions, it is important to develop effective monitoring algorithms to ensure the safety of production processes. This paper proposes a novel monitoring strategy based on fuzzy C-means. The high dimensional historical data are transferred to a low dimensional subspace spanned by locality preserving projection. Then the scores in the novel subspace are classified into several overlapped clusters, each representing an operational mode. The distance statistics of each cluster are integrated though the membership values into a novel BID (Bayesian inference distance) monitoring index. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated though the Tennessee Eastman benchmark process.展开更多
The traditional least squares support vector regression（LS-SVR）model,using cross validation to determine the regularization parameter and kernel parameter,is time-consuming.We propose a Bayesian evidence framework t...The traditional least squares support vector regression（LS-SVR）model,using cross validation to determine the regularization parameter and kernel parameter,is time-consuming.We propose a Bayesian evidence framework to infer the LS-SVR model parameters.Three levels Bayesian inferences are used to determine the model parameters,regularization hyper-parameters and tune the nuclear parameters by model comparison.On this basis,we established Bayesian LS-SVR time-series gas forecasting models and provide steps for the algorithm.The gas outburst data of a Hebi 10th mine working face is used to validate the model.The optimal embedding dimension and delay time of the time series were obtained by the smallest differential entropy method.Finally,within a MATLAB7.1 environment,we used actual coal gas data to compare the traditional LS-SVR and the Bayesian LS-SVR with LS-SVMlab1.5 Toolbox simulation.The results show that the Bayesian framework of an LS-SVR significantly improves the speed and accuracy of the forecast.展开更多
This paper presents one of many possible applications of Bayesian inference predictive context of planned tests. We are particularly interested in the use of predictive Bayesian approach in clinical trials or objectiv...This paper presents one of many possible applications of Bayesian inference predictive context of planned tests. We are particularly interested in the use of predictive Bayesian approach in clinical trials or objective is the development of important evidence of an effect of interest We offer the procedure based on the notion of satisfaction index which is a function of the p-value and we look forward, given the available data to calculate a forecast for future satisfaction data as predictive Bayesian hope this index conditional on previous observations. To illustrate the proposed procedure, several models have been studied by choosing the prior distribution justify the reasons of objectivity or neutrality that underlie the analysis of experimental data.展开更多
The application of support vector machines to forecasting problems is becoming popular, lately. Several comparisons between neural networks trained with error backpropagation and support vector machines have shown adv...The application of support vector machines to forecasting problems is becoming popular, lately. Several comparisons between neural networks trained with error backpropagation and support vector machines have shown advantage for the latter in different domains of application. However, some difficulties still deteriorate the performance of the support vector machines. The main one is related to the setting of the hyperparameters involved in their training. Techniques based on meta-heuristics have been employed to determine appropriate values for those hyperparameters. However, because of the high noneonvexity of this estimation problem, which makes the search for a good solution very hard, an approach based on Bayesian inference, called relevance vector machine, has been proposed more recently. The present paper aims at investigating the suitability of this new approach to the short-term load forecasting problem.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61074079)Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project (B054)
文摘For complex industrial processes with multiple operational conditions, it is important to develop effective monitoring algorithms to ensure the safety of production processes. This paper proposes a novel monitoring strategy based on fuzzy C-means. The high dimensional historical data are transferred to a low dimensional subspace spanned by locality preserving projection. Then the scores in the novel subspace are classified into several overlapped clusters, each representing an operational mode. The distance statistics of each cluster are integrated though the membership values into a novel BID (Bayesian inference distance) monitoring index. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated though the Tennessee Eastman benchmark process.
基金Financial support for this work,provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.60974126)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2009094)
文摘The traditional least squares support vector regression（LS-SVR）model,using cross validation to determine the regularization parameter and kernel parameter,is time-consuming.We propose a Bayesian evidence framework to infer the LS-SVR model parameters.Three levels Bayesian inferences are used to determine the model parameters,regularization hyper-parameters and tune the nuclear parameters by model comparison.On this basis,we established Bayesian LS-SVR time-series gas forecasting models and provide steps for the algorithm.The gas outburst data of a Hebi 10th mine working face is used to validate the model.The optimal embedding dimension and delay time of the time series were obtained by the smallest differential entropy method.Finally,within a MATLAB7.1 environment,we used actual coal gas data to compare the traditional LS-SVR and the Bayesian LS-SVR with LS-SVMlab1.5 Toolbox simulation.The results show that the Bayesian framework of an LS-SVR significantly improves the speed and accuracy of the forecast.
文摘This paper presents one of many possible applications of Bayesian inference predictive context of planned tests. We are particularly interested in the use of predictive Bayesian approach in clinical trials or objective is the development of important evidence of an effect of interest We offer the procedure based on the notion of satisfaction index which is a function of the p-value and we look forward, given the available data to calculate a forecast for future satisfaction data as predictive Bayesian hope this index conditional on previous observations. To illustrate the proposed procedure, several models have been studied by choosing the prior distribution justify the reasons of objectivity or neutrality that underlie the analysis of experimental data.
文摘The application of support vector machines to forecasting problems is becoming popular, lately. Several comparisons between neural networks trained with error backpropagation and support vector machines have shown advantage for the latter in different domains of application. However, some difficulties still deteriorate the performance of the support vector machines. The main one is related to the setting of the hyperparameters involved in their training. Techniques based on meta-heuristics have been employed to determine appropriate values for those hyperparameters. However, because of the high noneonvexity of this estimation problem, which makes the search for a good solution very hard, an approach based on Bayesian inference, called relevance vector machine, has been proposed more recently. The present paper aims at investigating the suitability of this new approach to the short-term load forecasting problem.
