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基于概率论和证据理论的小概率问题可靠性分析
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作者 曹亮 陈国强 +1 位作者 董丽君 黄中华 《湖南工程学院学报(自然科学版)》 2019年第2期30-35,共6页
在复杂结构可靠性分析研究中,往往因信息缺乏无法利用经典概率理论去定义结构系统中所有不确定参数.可利用概率论结合证据理论(描述认知不确定性)分析方法,提出一种新颖的基于概率论和证据理论分析结构可靠性的方法.先以贝叶斯转换方法... 在复杂结构可靠性分析研究中,往往因信息缺乏无法利用经典概率理论去定义结构系统中所有不确定参数.可利用概率论结合证据理论(描述认知不确定性)分析方法,提出一种新颖的基于概率论和证据理论分析结构可靠性的方法.先以贝叶斯转换方法用作证据体精确化,再通过反射变换方法将认知不确定性变量转换为正常随机变量,以MCMC子集模拟法引入合理中间失效事件来分析小概率问题的可靠性.给出了一个算例和工程实例验证了该方法的性能.结果表明,该方法的精度和计算效率很高,为混合不确定性的可靠性优化提供了依据. 展开更多
关键词 可靠性分析 概率论 证据理论 贝叶斯转换 MCMC子集模拟
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Packet Cache-Forward Method Based on Improved Bayesian Outlier Detection for Mobile Handover in Satellite Networks 被引量:4
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作者 Hefei Hu Dongming Yuan +1 位作者 Mingxia Liao Yuan'an Liu 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第6期167-177,共11页
In this paper, we propose a Packet Cache-Forward(PCF) method based on improved Bayesian outlier detection to eliminate out-of-order packets caused by transmission path drastically degradation during handover events in... In this paper, we propose a Packet Cache-Forward(PCF) method based on improved Bayesian outlier detection to eliminate out-of-order packets caused by transmission path drastically degradation during handover events in the moving satellite networks, for improving the performance of TCP. The proposed method uses an access node satellite to cache all received packets in a short time when handover occurs and forward them out in order. To calculate the cache time accurately, this paper establishes the Bayesian based mixture model for detecting delay outliers of the entire handover scheme. In view of the outliers' misjudgment, an updated classification threshold and the sliding window has been suggested to correct category collections and model parameters for the purpose of quickly identifying exact compensation delay in the varied network load statuses. Simulation shows that, comparing to average processing delay detection method, the average accuracy rate was scaled up by about 4.0%, and there is about 5.5% cut in error rate in the meantime. It also behaves well even though testing with big dataset. Benefiting from the advantage of the proposed scheme in terms of performance, comparing to conventional independent handover and network controlled synchronizedhandover in simulated LEO satellite networks, the proposed independent handover with PCF eliminates packet out-of-order issue to get better improvement on congestion window. Eventually the average delay decreases more than 70% and TCP performance has improved more than 300%. 展开更多
关键词 satellite networks HANDOVER bayesian method outlier detection
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