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概率联系数化的原理及其在概率推理中的应用 被引量:18
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作者 赵森烽 赵克勤 《智能系统学报》 北大核心 2012年第3期200-205,共6页
为创建一种新的概率理论使概率推理更为客观,借助简单随机试验探讨随机性的本质,说明了事件的随机性是2个事物相互联系的一种属性.具有随机性的事件称为随机事件,随机事件A与A珔成对存在,但可以分为主事件和伴随事件,由此导出主概率和... 为创建一种新的概率理论使概率推理更为客观,借助简单随机试验探讨随机性的本质,说明了事件的随机性是2个事物相互联系的一种属性.具有随机性的事件称为随机事件,随机事件A与A珔成对存在,但可以分为主事件和伴随事件,由此导出主概率和伴随概率,它们分别对应于主事件的大数概率和即或概率.用联系数表示这2个概率,该联系数称为联系概率(复概率),联系概率中的i是主事件和伴随事件相互转换的纽带,并且对产生的负概率作了解释,举例说明了联系概率在概率推理中的应用. 展开更多
关键词 概率推理 随机事件 联系数 主事件 伴随事件 联系概率(复概率) 负概率
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A priority-based dynamic load transfer algorithm for cellular/WLAN integrated networks
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作者 陈赓 夏玮玮 +1 位作者 许波 沈连丰 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2012年第1期14-20,共7页
For the integration network of a cellular network and a wireless local area network (WLAN), a priority-based dynamic load transfer (PDLT) algorithm is proposed. The dynamic vertical handoffs by call admission cont... For the integration network of a cellular network and a wireless local area network (WLAN), a priority-based dynamic load transfer (PDLT) algorithm is proposed. The dynamic vertical handoffs by call admission control are jointly determined by the network conditions and the traffic characteristics in combination with the location-condition of mobile terminals. When there is no bandwidth resource available in the cellular network or WLAN, the proposed PDLT algorithm allows an incoming voice call or data call within the overlapping area of the cellular network and the WLAN to be directed to the spare network; meanwhile, by dynamically computing the occupancy of the bandwidth resource, the proposed PDLT algorithm also allows an ongoing voice call or data communication to be transferred to the network with a sufficient bandwidth resource according to the given threshold to balance the number of voice/data calls in the two networks. The analysis results of a two-dimensional Markov model and the simulation results show that the PDLT algorithm can effectively enhance the whole integrated network' s traffic, reduce the blocking probability of new calls and increase the data throughput, and thus decrease the response time for various services. 展开更多
关键词 cellular network WLAN dynamic load transfer blocking probability Markov model
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“扶贫羊”悖论——基于资产型贫困陷阱
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作者 楚新元 卢爱珍 仇韪 《新疆财经》 2021年第4期16-26,共11页
本文利用CFPS2010年—2018年家庭追踪调查数据,基于“负收入增长概率”构造检验统计量来检验我国农村地区是否存在资产型贫困陷阱。结果表明:我国农村家庭不存在资产型贫困陷阱,主要原因是农村家庭资本产出弹性的持续性增长以及不同富... 本文利用CFPS2010年—2018年家庭追踪调查数据,基于“负收入增长概率”构造检验统计量来检验我国农村地区是否存在资产型贫困陷阱。结果表明:我国农村家庭不存在资产型贫困陷阱,主要原因是农村家庭资本产出弹性的持续性增长以及不同富裕程度家庭的技术水平无显著差异。当存在资产型贫困陷阱时,以“扶贫羊”为代表的无偿援助确实是一种高效的扶贫方式,但在生产要素边际报酬递减规律的作用下,物质资产的投入只能产生短期效应。因此疫情当下,为抑制返贫应优先考虑增加农村家庭的生产性资产和自用性资产,找到内生性致贫原因,为实现持续性脱贫和乡村振兴打下坚实基础。 展开更多
关键词 “扶贫羊”悖论 资产型贫困陷阱 农村家庭收入水平 收入增长概率 资本产出弹性 乡村振兴
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Evaluation of Loss of Load Probability and Expected Energy Generation in Multi-area Interconnected Systems with Wind Generating Units
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作者 Kaisar R. Khan Ahmed A. Abou-Arkoub +1 位作者 Mohamed Youssef Michael J. Newtown 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2014年第5期805-811,共7页
Due to randomness of wind generator's availability, power system planners have big concern on EEG (expected energy generation) and system reliability of power system with wind generators. This paper presents a meth... Due to randomness of wind generator's availability, power system planners have big concern on EEG (expected energy generation) and system reliability of power system with wind generators. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the EEG as well as overall LOLP (loss of load probability), which is an index for system reliability of multi-area interconnected systems with wind generators, as well as conventional fossil fuel based generating units. The proposed model is also capable of tracking the energy export incorporating the multi-state probability model for wind generator which output varies with time and season. 展开更多
关键词 LOLP expected energy generation wind generator.
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Chaotic Load Series Forecasting Based on MPMR
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作者 Liu Zunxiong Cheng Quanhu Zhang Deyun 《Electricity》 2006年第1期25-28,共4页
Minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) was proposed for chaotic load time series global prediction. In MPMR, regression function maximizes the minimum probability that future predication will be within an ε ... Minimax probability machine regression (MPMR) was proposed for chaotic load time series global prediction. In MPMR, regression function maximizes the minimum probability that future predication will be within an ε to the true regression function. After exploring the principle of MPMR, and verifying the chaotic property of the load series from a certain power system, one-day-ahead predictions for 24 time points next day wcre done with MPMR. Thc results demonstrate that MPMP has satisfactory prediction efficiency. Kernel function shape parameter and regression tube value may influence the MPMR-based system performance. In the experiments, cross validation was used to choose the two parameters. 展开更多
关键词 electrical load short-term forecasting minimax probability regression chaos theory
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Asymptotics for the Tail Probability of Random Sums with a Heavy-Tailed Random Number and Extended Negatively Dependent Summands 被引量:3
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作者 Fengyang CHENG Na LI 《Chinese Annals of Mathematics,Series B》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第1期69-78,共10页
Let (X, Xk : k ≥ 1) be a sequence of extended negatively dependent random variables with a common distribution F satisfying EX 〉 0.Let τ be a nonnegative integer-valued random variable, independent of {X, Xk :... Let (X, Xk : k ≥ 1) be a sequence of extended negatively dependent random variables with a common distribution F satisfying EX 〉 0.Let τ be a nonnegative integer-valued random variable, independent of {X, Xk : k ≥ 1}. In this paper, the authors obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions for the random sums Sτ=∑n=1^τ Xn to have a consistently varying tail when the random number τ has a heavier tail than the summands, i.e.,P(X〉x)/P(τ〉x)→0 as x →∞. 展开更多
关键词 Asymptotic behavior Random sums Heavy-Tailed distribution
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