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基于组合预测模型的我国管道货运量的预测分析 被引量:3
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作者 俞佳立 钱芝网 王涛 《科技与经济》 2017年第1期101-105,共5页
选取2005—2014年以来我国管道货运量的时间序列数据,在指数平滑法、灰色预测法的基础上,运用两者的组合预测模型对管道货运量进行预测分析,以揭示出其变化的内在规律。最后运用预测函数对"十三五"规划期间我国管道货运量进... 选取2005—2014年以来我国管道货运量的时间序列数据,在指数平滑法、灰色预测法的基础上,运用两者的组合预测模型对管道货运量进行预测分析,以揭示出其变化的内在规律。最后运用预测函数对"十三五"规划期间我国管道货运量进行短期外推预测。分析结果表明,到2020年,我国管道货运量将达到116.56千万吨。 展开更多
关键词 管道货运 指数平滑法 灰色预测法 组合预测
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未来城市规划与建设应注意的问题及有关设想
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作者 程章德 《三明学院学报》 2000年第S4期79-81,共3页
本文从分析城市“环境危机”入手,引入立体交通思维,设置“空中走廊”;发展电子商务,“解放”建筑底层空间等概念。
关键词 空中走廊 自助车 货运管道
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Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment
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作者 Tomas Saska 《Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B)》 2012年第3期410-415,共6页
Transport risk assessment for the environment has two important aspects--problem solving model and solution veracity. Problem solving model is larger understanding of tasks interconnection, which represents in itself ... Transport risk assessment for the environment has two important aspects--problem solving model and solution veracity. Problem solving model is larger understanding of tasks interconnection, which represents in itself partial solution of general risk assessment. Veracity of solution means how the results are consistent with the reality. By researching of both aspects, it rises many unanswered questions. It is concerned about verification and validation of risk assessment results. By risk assessment for the environment it is possible to meet wide variety of more or less good soluble problems. It exists simple problems based on risk assessment of common traffic accidents connected with service charge outflow. On the other site, it exists complex problems of risk assessment connected with dangerous goods transport by traffic or pipelines. By simple problems solving there are not many questions about risk assessment veracity. It is possible to determine traffic accidents frequencies and service charge outflows consequences on the basis of examined events in transportation with great veracity. By complex problems the situation is quite different. The frequencies of large accidents are very low but the consequences for the environment may be large. Both are encumbered by large level of uncertainty. That is why the question is rising. To what degree, it is in these cases correct to make decision based on risk assessment. 展开更多
关键词 TRANSPORT risk environment risk management UNCERTAINTIES probability.
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