利用“自上而下”法评定微生物定量检测方法的不确定度

参考ISO 19036标准《食物链中的微生物学定量测定的测量不确定度估算》和RB/T 228—2023《食品微生物定量检测的测量不确定度评估指南》,采用“自上而下”法设计实验方案,以生乳和发酵乳为样品,分别对3种不同定量检测方法进行不确定度评估。第1种为菌落总数的不确定度评定,包含技术不确定度、基质不确定度和泊松分布不确定度。综合3个分量的数值计算合成不确定度,当结果为9.4×10~4 CFU/m L时,扩展不确定度为0.31(lg(CFU/m L))。第2种为最可能数法的不确定度评定,包含技术不确定度、基质不确定度和基于最可能数的不确定度。综合3个分量的数值计算合成不确定度,当结果为24 MPN/g时,扩展不确定度为0.94(lg(MPN/g))。第3种为需要对目标菌进行确认的菌落总数不确定度评定,包括技术不确定度、基质不确定度、泊松分布不确定度和确证不确定度。综合4个分量的数值计算合成不确定度,当结果为22 CFU/g时,扩展不确定度为0.29(lg(CFU/g))。

强化基层农税队伍素质建设

随着“分税制”的进一步完善,要适应新形势发展的需要,强化基层农税队伍素质建设迫在眉睫。笔者认为应从以下几方面入手: 一、政治素质 所谓政治素质,主要是指一个基层农税人员所应有的政治态度和立场。一段时间来,乱摊派、乱收费、乱罚款影响了干群关系,党中央三令五申制止“三乱”,但这些现象仍时有发生。农税工作涉及面广,联系千家万户。

Censored Composite Conditional Quantile Screening for High-Dimensional Survival Data

In this paper,we introduce the censored composite conditional quantile coefficient(cC-CQC)to rank the relative importance of each predictor in high-dimensional censored regression.The cCCQC takes advantage of all useful information across quantiles and can detect nonlinear effects including interactions and heterogeneity,effectively.Furthermore,the proposed screening method based on cCCQC is robust to the existence of outliers and enjoys the sure screening property.Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method performs competitively on survival datasets of high-dimensional predictors,particularly when the variables are highly correlated.

Performance of bottleneck shifting for remanufacturing system considering returns' quality grading

Aimed at the remanufacturing system, the effect of the uncertainty of returns＇ quality on bottleneck shifting is investigated. A novel definition of bottleneck station is presented and the probability of a station becoming a bottleneck is also given. By calculating the effective output, the effective operation time （EOT） and the ratio of EOT of each station, the system＇s current bottleneck of effective output time is determined. By calculating the probability coefficient of variation and index of bottleneck shifting, the quantitative performance of bottleneck shifting is obtained. Discrete event simulation and the experiment design method are adopted to simulate the system, in which the proportion of quality grading, repair rates and process routes are considered. The case study shows that the uncertainty of returns＇ quality greatly increases the probability of bottleneck shifting, and with the increase of the discrete degree of the returns＇ repair rate, the bottleneck shifting phenomenon is more obvious. Furthermore, bottleneck shifting is closely related to the process route of the dominating returns＇ quality grade.

基于ISO19036:2019评估饮用水中大肠菌群的测量不确定度

[目的]参考ISO19036:2019对饮用水中大肠菌群的测量不确定度进行评估。[方法]通过设计试验方案,分别评估技术不确定度(u_(tech))、基质不确定度(u_(matrix))和分布不确定度(u_(distrib)),并综合3个分量的数值计算合成不确定度(uc(y))和扩展不确定度(U)。[结果]对GB 4789.3—2016第二法进行测量不确定度评估后,得到的技术不确定度为0.1202 log(CFU/mL),基质不确定度为0.1 log(CFU/mL),分布不确定度分别为0.0655,0.0261 log(CFU/mL),当结果为440 CFU/mL时,扩展不确定度为0.34 log(CFU/mL),表示为(2.64±0.34)log(CFU/mL)。[结论]ISO19036:2019对食品中微生物定量检测方法进行测量不确定度评估相较目前国内标准更科学、更便捷。

产权证券化的设计

现代产权制度是现代企业制度的核心,因而在改革进程中,我国理论界和企业界极为重视现代产权制度,尤其是非常注重强调产权的清晰。在深入国有企业改革进程中,强调产权清晰是完全正确的。问题在于,产权如何才能清晰? 产权清晰可分为静态的清晰和动态的清晰。资产评估及资产所有性质确定,只能实现静态的清晰。但是,随着国有资产的再资本化,资本的经常流动。

确定P-V曲线中质壁分离点的方法比较

质壁分离渗透势（Ψtlp ）与质壁分离相对含水量（ CRW，tlp ）作为重要的水分生理参数，被认为是衡量树木耐旱性强弱的重要指标。为了验证不同方法确定质壁分离点的差异，笔者对比了Ⅰ型与Ⅱ型标绘P-V曲线类型，采用Ⅱ型标绘方式，利用常见的数学法、图形法和程序法分析了东北东部山区主要树种的Ψtlp和CRW，tlp。结果表明：Ⅰ型8个树种Ψtlp和CRW，tlp平均值分别较Ⅱ型高出0．20 MPa和3．17％。其中两种标绘类型对针叶树兴安落叶松和红松参数求解影响大于阔叶树。不同标绘类型改变了树种间参数的对比关系。Ⅱ型中除了程序法求解春榆Ψtlp显著高于数学法外（P＜0．05），其他树种3种方法求解Ψtlp及CRW，tlp均无显著性差异（P＞0．05）。3种方法求解的同一参数间的线性方程决定系数在0．63～0．90之间（ P＜0．01）。其中，数学法与图形法线性关系最好，数学法与程序法、图形法与程序法线性关系次之。Ⅱ型标绘P-V曲线图形变化平缓，曲线部分与直线部分分界明显，可较好地估计水分参数。图形法在适用性上具有优势。

Determination and stability analysis of ultimate open-pit slope under geomechanical uncertainty

In open-pit mines,pit slope as one of the important parameters affects the mine economy and total minable reserve,and it is also affected by different uncertainties which arising from many sources.One of the most critical sources of uncertainty effects on the pit slope design is rock mass geomechanical properties.By comparing the probability of failure resulted from deterministic procedure and probabilistic one,this paper investigated the effects of aforesaid uncertainties on open-pit slope stability in metal mines.In this way,to reduce the effect of variance,it implemented Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS)technique.Furthermore,a hypothesis test was exerted to compare the effects on two cases in Middle East.Subsequently,the investigation approved high influence of geomechanical uncertainties on overall pit steepness and stability in both iron and copper mines,though on the first case the effects were just over.

DETERMINING CARBON-13 ENRICHMENT USING LOW ENERGY PROTONS

The proton-capture reactions 12C(p,γ)13N and 13C(p,γ)14N have been studied to determine 13C enrichments. The system has been calibrated by measuring the gamma-rays yield from the 12C(p,γ)13N and 13C(p,γ)14N reactions as a function of known 13C enrichment.This technique is applicable to the analysis of samples with 13C enrichments between 1% and 90%.

RANDOM SETS: A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR MULTISOURCE INFORMATION FUSION

The more diverse the ways and means of information acquisition are,the more complex and various the types of information are. The qualities of available information are usually uncertain,vague,imprecise,incomplete,and so on. However,the information is modeled and fused traditionally in particular,name some of the known theories: evidential,fuzzy sets,possibilistic,rough sets or conditional events,etc. For several years,researchers have explored the unification of theories enabling the fusion of multisource information and have finally considered random set theory as a powerful mathematical tool. This paper attempts to overall review the close relationships between random set theory and other theories,and introduce recent research results which present how different types of information can be dealt with in this unified framework. Finally,some possible future directions are discussed.

Mothers overcoming remorse to care for self and baby:An emerging concept

Objectives:Mothers with substance use disorder(SUD)experience a range of emotions such as feeling ostracized,diminished,and distressed while watching their baby experience withdrawal from substances.Being fully present in the now moment is to trust self to do what is best by moving beyond perceived boundaries to care for self and baby.The process of concept building arose from nursing practice encounters in a special care nursery(SCN)for babies who experienced withdrawal from substances.Method:Liehr and Smith’s 10-phase concept building approach was used to guide the development of this concept.Concept building began with a practice story.The emerging concept was named,core qualities identified,and supported through a literature review.The middle range theory of uncertainty in illness was chosen to serve as theoretical support for the concept.A model was created to provide clarity on the relationships within the concept.Result:A mini-saga was gathered from a mother in the SCN whose newborn had experienced withdrawal from substances.The minisaga follows:Due to the baby’s discomfort and judging eyes of the staff,she was unable to mother her baby.As the baby recovered,she asked for help,comforted her baby,and gained confidence to move beyond perceived boundaries to become the mother she envisioned.Overcoming perceived boundaries to attend to self and baby is trusting oneself to do what is best in spite of feeling ostracized,diminished,and distressed while watching baby withdraw from substances.Conclusion:This concept provides the perspective of mothers with SUD through intermodernism from experiences in nursing practice.The Uncertainty in Illness theory further allows practitioners to gain an understanding of the role uncertainty plays in this unique situation.

试论私立学校的定位和教育立法问题

中外教育发展史表明，国家办学与私人办学，公立学校与私立学校相互竞争又互相补充，是教育体制发生发展过程中的必然规律、私立学校是国家办学的补充形式，承认私立学校的存在，就是按教育体制的发生发展规律办事。为把私立学校的事办好，必须教育立法。本文对立法内容提出了提议．并提出了当前急待解决的三大问题。

Daily Influent Quantity Forecasting Method for Sewage Treatment Plant Considering Uncertain Factors

Daily influent quantity forecasting plays an important role in sewage treatment plant design and operation. Its uncertain factors are classified into three categories including day types, weather conditions and special events, of which the latter two are considered with a BP (Back Propagation) model. On this basis, the daily period feature is taken into account in the presented model. The data from a practical sewage treatment plant utility is employed to show the effectiveness of the method.

Time Varying Gravitational Constant G via Entropic Force

If the uncertainty principle applies to the Verlinde entropic idea, it leads to a new term in the Newton＇s second law of mechanics in the Planck＇s scale. This curious velocity dependent term inspires a frictional feature of the gravity. In this short letter we address that this new term modifies the effective mass and the Newtonian constant as the time dependent quantities. Thus we must have a running on the value of the effective mass on the particle mass m near the holographic screen and the G. This result has a nigh relation with the Dirac hypothesis about the large numbers hypothesis （L.N.H.）. We propose that the corrected entropie terms via Verlinde idea can be brought as a holographic evidence for the authenticity of the Dirac idea.

论行为的罪化过程——犯罪确定的法理分析

犯罪的原质是行为 ,近现代刑法只把行为当作自己的考察对象。刑法意义上的行为具有主体的限定性 ,主体的意志性 ,刑法上的因果性 ,刑法上的评价性四个基本特征。行为之所以成为犯罪 ,作为其质的社会危害性是不断发展着的社会正义评价的结果 ,而随之确定的刑罚则是社会危害性的量化体现 ,并反之成为判断而后的同类行为是否构成犯罪的客观标准。刑法典作为犯罪的外在判断标准 ,并不需要揭示其实质 ,仅需规定 :凡违反本法规定之行为 ,均受追究。

Monte-Carlo based cascade control approach with focus on real overactuated space systems

The present research relies on a cascade control approach through the Monte-Carlo based method in the presence of uncertainties to evaluate the performance of the real overactuated space systems.A number of potential investigations in this area are first considered to prepare an idea with respect to state-of-the-art.The insight proposed here is organized to present attitude cascade control approach including the low thrust in connection with the high thrust to be implemented,while the aforementioned Monte-Carlo based method is carried out to guarantee the approach performance.It is noted that the investigated outcomes are efficient to handle a class of space systems presented via the center of mass and the moments of inertial.And also a number of profiles for the thrust vector and the misalignments as the disturbances all vary in its span of nominal variations.The acquired results are finally analyzed in line with some well-known benchmarks to verify the approach efficiency.The key core of finding in the research is to propose a novel 3-axis control approach to deal with all the mentioned uncertainties of space systems under control,in a synchronous manner,as long as the appropriate models in the low-high thrusts are realized.

A New Energy Concept

According to the uncertainties in the results and the wide diversity of how to approach the subject, a new concept for energy is proposed： Energy is an exchange between two different concentrations, the concentration of time in space outside what we call matter and the concentrated phase of time in matter space which is the matter itself. The concept of motion for energy is replaced by time-space interactions with time taken as solid matter. Motion enhances the exchange between the mass and its surrounding time in space, annihilation and creation are special forms of this exchange. During the motion of a mass, it increases as a result of this dissolution. Time concentration in Fock space is responsible for the collision phenomena in physics. In this paper, a new mathematical operator （the equal operator） is introduced.

中年心脏健康与未来痴呆风险有关

新研究提示,在中年,让你更容易心脏病发作或卒中的因素（如高血压、糖尿病、吸烟）可能增加25年后患痴呆的风险。一些专家说,这三个因素均影响你的血管健康。损害心脏的因素也可能对大脑有害。

Characterization,controlling, and reduction of uncertainties in the modeling and observation of land-surface systems

Uncertainty is one of the greatest challenges in the quantitative understanding of land-surface systems.This paper discusses the sources of uncertainty in land-surface systems and the possible means to reduce and control this uncertainty.From the perspective of model simulation,the primary source of uncertainty is the high heterogeneity of parameters,state variables,and near-surface atmospheric states.From the perspective of observation,we first utilize the concept of representativeness error to unify the errors caused by scale representativeness.The representativeness error also originates mainly from spatial heterogeneity.With the aim of controlling and reducing uncertainties,here we demonstrate the significance of integrating modeling and observations as they are complementary and propose to treat complex land-surface systems with a stochastic perspective.In addition,through the description of two modern methods of data assimilation,we delineate how data assimilation characterizes and controls uncertainties by maximally integrating modeling and observational information,thereby enhancing the predictability and observability of the system.We suggest that the next-generation modeling should depict the statistical distribution of dynamic systems and that the observations should capture spatial heterogeneity and quantify the representativeness error of observations.

Qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in regional rainfall frequency analysis

Uncertainty exists widely in hydrological analysis, and this makes the process of uncertainty assessment very im- portant for making robust decisions. In this study, uncertainty sources in regional rainfall frequency analysis are identified for the first time. The numeral unite spread assessment pedigree （NUSAP） method is introduced and is first employed to quantify qual- itative uncertainty in regional rainfall frequency analysis. A pedigree matrix is particularly designed for regional rainfall frequency analysis, by which the qualitative uncertainty can be quantified. Finally, the qualitative and quantitative uncertainties are com- bined in an uncertainty diagnostic diagram, which makes the uncertainty evaluation results more intuitive. From the integrated diagnostic diagram, it can be determined that the uncertainty caused by the precipitation data is the smallest, and the uncertainty from different grouping methods is the largest. For the downstream sub-region, a generalized extreme value （GEV） distribution is better than a generalized logistic （GLO） distribution; for the south sub-region, a Pearson type III （PE3） distribution is the better choice; and for the north sub-region, GEV is more appropriate.