贝叶斯三角帽法的GRACE/GRACE-FO组合模型及其不确定性

利用贝叶斯三角帽法将多个GRACE/GRACE-FO重构模型进行融合,提升基于深度学习的地表质量变化重构模型的精度,为高精度填补及重构GRACE/GRACE-FO数据提供参考。实验表明,组合模型估算的全球陆地水储量变化的不确定性最低,其结果在多数流域与参考模型的一致性更佳;较最优的重构模型,组合模型全球及流域的不确定性降低约15%,纳什效率系数(NSE)提升约5%,尤其在半干旱、半湿润及湿润区域,其精度提升更明显。

基于多源数据研究三峡地区环境负荷引起的地壳垂直形变

构建三峡地区大气和陆地水质量变化模型,利用GNSS、GRACE-FO和环境质量变化模型计算三峡地区2019~2022年环境负荷引起的地壳垂直形变,探讨基于GRACE-FO数据的球谐函数法和结合质量变化模型的格林函数法在计算环境负荷垂直形变上的差异。研究发现,2种方法计算的陆地水负荷垂直形变在时空分布上具有一定的一致性,但是后者的精度和空间分辨率更高;基于质量变化模型计算的CQWZ站和HBZG站的环境总负荷垂直形变与GNSS实测结果相关系数达到0.88和0.83;2019~2022年三峡库区和洞庭湖流域的地壳垂直形变速率分别为0.5~0.7 mm/a和0.6~1.5 mm/a,原因是2022年该区域水位降低导致地壳回弹上升;三峡库区附近地壳夏季上升、冬季下沉,垂直形变幅度约为-5~18 mm,主要受水库蓄水和大气负荷驱动的影响。

How to Evaluate Human Capital？

A company is usually founded by individuals striving to achieve their own or broader goals. Goal achievement related to a company＇s operations is called business or the business process. Human capital （man＇s work, employees） is an important element of the business process, however its value is not disclosed on the assets side of the classical balance sheet. In order to shown assets, human capital has to be evaluated. Evaluation can be made in monetary or non-monetary terms. Non-monetary models for evaluating human capital include organisational and behavioural variables. These variables are not expressed in monetary terms, however, based on changes in their quality, one can assume the increased or decreased value of human capital within the company. The value of non-monetary models should not be underestimated, however monetary models are of greater importance. In this article, the most significant non-monetary and monetary models of human capital evaluation are discussed. Among non-monetary models the Michigan, Flamholz, and Ogan models are discussed. Among monetary models the replacement costs model, the opportunity costs model, the discounted wages and salaries model, and originally created dynamic model are discussed. A descriptive approach is used to identify the basic characteristics of existing models for evaluating human capital. According to these findings a different approach is taken in developing an original model. Dynamic model can efficiently overcome most of the practical problems and can be used as an appropriate estimator of human capital value expressed in monetary terms. The research limitations are that the dynamic model has not been sufficiently verified in practice. The model could prove to be directly applicable in those enterprises that would like to define the value of their human capital.

Spatio-temporal Changes in Wildlife Habitat Quality in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from 1980 to 2100 based on the InVEST Model

The Yangtze River(YZR) regions have experienced rapid changes after opening up to economic reforms, and human activities have changed the land cover, ecology, and wildlife habitat quality. However, the specific ways in which those influencing factors changed the habitat quality during different periods remain unknown. This study assessed the wildlife habitat quality of the middle and lower YZR in the past(1980–2018) and in future scenarios(2050, 2100). We analyzed the relationships between habitat quality and various topological social-economic factors, and then mapped and evaluated the changes in habitat quality by using the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST) model. The results show that the slope(R = 0.502, P < 0.01, in 2015), elevation(R = 0.003, P < 0.05, in 2015), population density(R = –0.299, P < 0.01, in 2015), and NDVI(R = 0.366, P < 0.01, in 2015) in the study area were significantly correlated with habitat quality from 2000 to 2015. During the period of 1980–2018, 61.93% of the study area experienced habitat degradation and 38.07% of the study area had improved habitat quality. In the future, the habitat quality of the study area will decline under either the A2 scenario(high level of population density, low environmental technology input, and high traditional energy cost) or the B2 scenario(medium level of population density, medium green technology and lack of cooperation of regional governments). The results also showed that habitat in the lower reaches or north of the YZR had degraded more than in the middle reaches or the south of YZR. Therefore, regional development should put more effort into environmental protection, curb population growth, and encourage green technology innovation. Inter-province cooperation is necessary when dealing with ecological problems. This study can serve as a scientific reference for regional wildlife protection and similar investigations in different areas.

Trend of mass change in the Antarctic ice sheet recovered from the GRACE temporal gravity field

It is important to quantify mass variations in the Antarctic ice sheet hybrid filtering scheme employing a combination of the decorrelated to study the global sea-level rise and climate change. A filter P3M6 and 300 km Fan filter was used, and the sur- face mass variations over the Antarctic are recovered from GRACE CSR RL04 monthly gravity field models from August 2002 to June 2010. After deduction of leakage errors using the GLDAS hydrological model and postglacial rebound effects using the glacial isostatic adjustment model IJ05, the variations in the ice sheet mass are obtained. The results reveal that the rate of melting of the Antarctic ice sheet is 80.0 Gt/a and increasing and contributes 0.22 mm/a to the global sea-level rise; the mass loss rate is 78.3 Gt/a in the West Antarctic and 1.6 Gt/a in the East Antarctic. The average mass loss rate increases from 39.3 Gt/a for the period 2002-2005 to 104.2 Gt/a for the period 2006-2010, and its corresponding contribution to the global sea-level rise increases from 0.11 to 0.29 mm/a, which indicates accelerated ice mass loss over the Antarctic since 2006. Moreover, the mass accumulation rates for Enderby Land and Wilkes Land along the coast of East Antarctica decrease for the period 2006-2008 but increase evidently after 2009.

Impact of Land Use Changes on Habitat Quality in Altay Region

Altay region is located in the northern part of Xinjiang,and has complex and diverse internal geomorphic types,undulating terrain and a fragile ecosystem.Studying the impact of land use changes on habitat quality is of great significance to regional ecological protection and development,rational planning and utilization,and ensuring the sustainable development of the ecological environment.Based on the InVEST model,combined with land use panel data and topographic relief data of the Altay region,this paper studied the habitat quality from 1995 to 2018.The results show that cultivated land,water area and construction land increased gradually from 1995 to 2018,while grassland and unused land decreased.Forestland remained stable in the first five periods,but increased significantly in 2018.During 1995-2018,all land use types were transferred,mainly between cultivated land,forestland,grassland and unused land in the flat and slightly undulating areas.Poor habitat quality was dominant during 1995-2018.Habitat quality decreased significantly in 2015,which was related to the rapid expansion of cultivated and construction land as threat sources,as well as the decrease of forest and grassland as sensitive factors.However,habitat quality improved significantly in 2018,because a large amount of cultivated land and unused land were converted into forest land and grassland with high habitat suitability.Land use type has an important influence on habitat quality.The distribution characteristics of habitat quality for topographic relief types from good to bad were:large undulating area>medium undulating area>small undulating area>flat area>slightly undulating area.The findings of this study are of great significance for coordinating social,economic,and ecological development in this region and in similar areas.