This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper genera...This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory and Sharpe’s rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institu- tional or individual investor can combine Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe’s rule and Value-at-Risk (VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the gen- eralized Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe’s rule improve decision making for investment.展开更多
Empresa Portuguesa das Aguas Livres （EPAL） is a capital intensive company, in which the operational infra-structure assets represent the basis of customer service whilst being a great consumer of capital. In this co...Empresa Portuguesa das Aguas Livres （EPAL） is a capital intensive company, in which the operational infra-structure assets represent the basis of customer service whilst being a great consumer of capital. In this context, the asset management function plays a key role in optimizing the return on infrastructure usage, and at the same time guaranteeing adequate levels of service. With a view to an effective and efficient management of investments to be made in a rational and sustained way under technical-scientific criteria, implementing a systematic inspection program was considered as the best approach strategy. The main purpose of the inspection program is to obtain, in a systematic, coherent and comparable way, relevant information to support decision making, in particular for supporting intervention priorities and identification along with asset maintenance requirements, whether preventive or curative. This methodology is revealed as a key tool in the management of risk of failure associated with the management and operation of EPAL＇s building infrastructure.展开更多
One of the most important issues relating to the economic activity of an enterprise is a reliable valuation of assets. It is also one of the key elements in the condition of bankruptcy risk. The aim of this paper is t...One of the most important issues relating to the economic activity of an enterprise is a reliable valuation of assets. It is also one of the key elements in the condition of bankruptcy risk. The aim of this paper is to present the results of the author＇s empirical research concerning the usefulness of the estimates in the valuation of fixed assets held by the enterprises facing bankruptcy. The empirical research was carried out on a group of 100 companies on which courts declared bankruptcy in 2011 in Poland. The study sample constitutes 14% of the population and is a significant representation of the phenomenon. For comparisons of the carrying amounts and the estimated values, the assets recognized in the balance sheet under ＂property, plant, and equipment （PPE）＂ were selected. During the first stage of the research, the significance of PPE in bankruptcy proceedings was confirmed by comparing the share of their value within the estate with the costs of the proceedings recorded as a percentage of the value of the debtor＇s estate. In the next stage of the research, comparisons between the carrying amounts and the estimated values were made. Simple regression models were constructed. The research results confirm that in the case of a substantial doubt about an entity＇s ability to continue as a going concern, the informative value of financial statements is limited and the estimates of the fixed assets value are of fundamental importance.展开更多
The emergence of Yu＇E Bao and the like provides Chinese investors with a new and flexible investment option. Such new investment instrument forces up the cost of capital of local banks and also takes away the market ...The emergence of Yu＇E Bao and the like provides Chinese investors with a new and flexible investment option. Such new investment instrument forces up the cost of capital of local banks and also takes away the market share from them. Yu＇E Bao has allocated most investments in inter-bank money market due to the liquidity concerns. This study investigates Yu＇E Bao＇s portfolio allocation and potential risk, and also provides policy implications for regulators. The research findings suggest that regulators should issue more provisions to further regulate the operation of online investment products and keep the liquidity risk under control, i.e. require money market funds to hold more capital in reserve on a gradual basis. By examining the case of Yu＇E Bao, a new online investment product in China, this study sheds light on the recent financial development and reform of China.展开更多
This paper uses a Value at Risk （VaR） approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency...This paper uses a Value at Risk （VaR） approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency exchange swaps contracts （USS/Brazilian Reais） are submitted to a delta-normal VaR method, in order to evaluate the market risk of each swaps series, by modeling the variance of the daily returns, from August 1999 to January 2003. All daily returns series exhibited heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance and sudden changes in the unconditional variance. The points of changes of the unconditional variance were determined through the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares （ICSS） algorithm, and the conditional variance was modeled with Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity （SWGARCH） in order to capture heteroscedasticity and regime change. The results lead to two main conclusions： First, a VaR model must incorporate heteroscedasticity and regime switching in order to describe the variance of the tested series, submitted to brisk changes of economic and political scenarios. Second, a volatility-based VaR do not necessarily generate forward-looking indicators, but rather coincident indicators of possible financial vulnerabilities. The future research will evolve towards evaluating the effects of the Basel III recommendations as if they could be applied to this crisis period.展开更多
Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China...Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.展开更多
In the paper, using Levy processes subordinated by ＇asymptotically self-similar activity time＇ pro- cesses with long-range dependence, we set up new asset pricing models. Using the different construction for gamma ...In the paper, using Levy processes subordinated by ＇asymptotically self-similar activity time＇ pro- cesses with long-range dependence, we set up new asset pricing models. Using the different construction for gamma （F） based ＇asymptotically self-similar activity time＇ processes with long-range dependence from Fin- lay and Seneta （2006） we extend the constructions for inverse-gamma and gamma based ＇asymptotically self- similar activity time＇ processes with integer-vMued parameters and long-range dependence in Heyde and Leo- nenko （2005） and Finlay and Seneta （2006） to noninteger-valued parameters.展开更多
This paper considers the optimal investment problem for an insurer in the sense of maximizing the adjustment coefficient of the risk process.The authors propose a modified periodic risk model in which the periodic ris...This paper considers the optimal investment problem for an insurer in the sense of maximizing the adjustment coefficient of the risk process.The authors propose a modified periodic risk model in which the periodic risk process is perturbed by a standard Brownian motion.The insurer can invest in multiple risky assets and one risk-free asset and the correlations between the risky assets and the risk process are considered.Optimal strategy is obtained explicitly,which is a function of time and related to the risk process.The effects of market parameters on the optimal strategy are discussed and a numerical example is also given.展开更多
The pricing theories of capital assets are the principal part in the modern financial theories. Presently, the capital asset pricing model and the arbitrage pricing theory, including their evolutional forms, all don＇...The pricing theories of capital assets are the principal part in the modern financial theories. Presently, the capital asset pricing model and the arbitrage pricing theory, including their evolutional forms, all don＇t embody the premium of non-system risks and non-factor risks. This paper analyses the risk reward of traditional capital assets pricing models, revises the traditional capital assets pricing models, and advances the revised models of capital assets pricing theories basing on full-risk reward.展开更多
This paper introduces the disposition effect into asset pricing process, and sets dynamic equilibrium model on which we can discuss the pattern of risk assets＇ returns. On base of theory results, we use data of China...This paper introduces the disposition effect into asset pricing process, and sets dynamic equilibrium model on which we can discuss the pattern of risk assets＇ returns. On base of theory results, we use data of China stock market to analyze the influence of disposition effect on stock return. The empirical study result confirms the disposition effect＇s existence in China stock market and it does affect the stock return.展开更多
This paper generalizes European call options on the extremum of several risky assets in a Poisson-Gaussian model which allows both the risky assets and stochastic interest rates moving randomly with jump risks. The st...This paper generalizes European call options on the extremum of several risky assets in a Poisson-Gaussian model which allows both the risky assets and stochastic interest rates moving randomly with jump risks. The stochastic interest rate is assumed to follow an extended multi-factor HJM model with jumps. The authors provide explicitly the closed-form solutions of these options through the change of numeralre technique and examine the effects of both jump risks and stochastic interest rate on the option price with numerical experiment. The model can be seen as an extension of Stulz （1982）, Johnson （1987） and Lindset （2006）.展开更多
In this paper, the surplus process is assumed to be a periodic risk model and the insurer is allowed to invest in multiple risky assets described by the Black-Scholes market model. Under shortselling prohibition, the ...In this paper, the surplus process is assumed to be a periodic risk model and the insurer is allowed to invest in multiple risky assets described by the Black-Scholes market model. Under shortselling prohibition, the authors consider the optimal investment from an insurer＇s point of view by maximizing the adjustment coefficent and the expected exponential utility of wealth at one period, respectively. It is shown that the optimal strategies of both of optimization problems are to invest a fixed amount of money in each risky asset.展开更多
This paper developed a model for pricing catastrophe bond whose trigger is loss index. In the model Esscher transform which is a facility usually used in actuarial science now provides an easy way to calculate Radon-N...This paper developed a model for pricing catastrophe bond whose trigger is loss index. In the model Esscher transform which is a facility usually used in actuarial science now provides an easy way to calculate Radon-Nikodym derivative so that the whole pricing process becomes easier to understand. At the end of this paper we use this model to price a China typhoon catastrophe bond which is also designed by us.展开更多
Two important issues in exit of venture capital, exit timing and exit approaches, are analyzed. Based on the real options theory and the contingent claims analysis, it develops approach-selecting models in terms of Tr...Two important issues in exit of venture capital, exit timing and exit approaches, are analyzed. Based on the real options theory and the contingent claims analysis, it develops approach-selecting models in terms of Trade-sales and Initial Public Offers and corresponding timing models. Furthermore, thresholds of cash flows as well as value of real options are derived. Finally, decision criteria of exit of venture capital are obtained and empirical evidence shows that the criteria agree with the real investment activities very well.展开更多
文摘This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory and Sharpe’s rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institu- tional or individual investor can combine Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe’s rule and Value-at-Risk (VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the gen- eralized Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe’s rule improve decision making for investment.
文摘Empresa Portuguesa das Aguas Livres （EPAL） is a capital intensive company, in which the operational infra-structure assets represent the basis of customer service whilst being a great consumer of capital. In this context, the asset management function plays a key role in optimizing the return on infrastructure usage, and at the same time guaranteeing adequate levels of service. With a view to an effective and efficient management of investments to be made in a rational and sustained way under technical-scientific criteria, implementing a systematic inspection program was considered as the best approach strategy. The main purpose of the inspection program is to obtain, in a systematic, coherent and comparable way, relevant information to support decision making, in particular for supporting intervention priorities and identification along with asset maintenance requirements, whether preventive or curative. This methodology is revealed as a key tool in the management of risk of failure associated with the management and operation of EPAL＇s building infrastructure.
文摘One of the most important issues relating to the economic activity of an enterprise is a reliable valuation of assets. It is also one of the key elements in the condition of bankruptcy risk. The aim of this paper is to present the results of the author＇s empirical research concerning the usefulness of the estimates in the valuation of fixed assets held by the enterprises facing bankruptcy. The empirical research was carried out on a group of 100 companies on which courts declared bankruptcy in 2011 in Poland. The study sample constitutes 14% of the population and is a significant representation of the phenomenon. For comparisons of the carrying amounts and the estimated values, the assets recognized in the balance sheet under ＂property, plant, and equipment （PPE）＂ were selected. During the first stage of the research, the significance of PPE in bankruptcy proceedings was confirmed by comparing the share of their value within the estate with the costs of the proceedings recorded as a percentage of the value of the debtor＇s estate. In the next stage of the research, comparisons between the carrying amounts and the estimated values were made. Simple regression models were constructed. The research results confirm that in the case of a substantial doubt about an entity＇s ability to continue as a going concern, the informative value of financial statements is limited and the estimates of the fixed assets value are of fundamental importance.
文摘The emergence of Yu＇E Bao and the like provides Chinese investors with a new and flexible investment option. Such new investment instrument forces up the cost of capital of local banks and also takes away the market share from them. Yu＇E Bao has allocated most investments in inter-bank money market due to the liquidity concerns. This study investigates Yu＇E Bao＇s portfolio allocation and potential risk, and also provides policy implications for regulators. The research findings suggest that regulators should issue more provisions to further regulate the operation of online investment products and keep the liquidity risk under control, i.e. require money market funds to hold more capital in reserve on a gradual basis. By examining the case of Yu＇E Bao, a new online investment product in China, this study sheds light on the recent financial development and reform of China.
文摘This paper uses a Value at Risk （VaR） approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency exchange swaps contracts （USS/Brazilian Reais） are submitted to a delta-normal VaR method, in order to evaluate the market risk of each swaps series, by modeling the variance of the daily returns, from August 1999 to January 2003. All daily returns series exhibited heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance and sudden changes in the unconditional variance. The points of changes of the unconditional variance were determined through the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares （ICSS） algorithm, and the conditional variance was modeled with Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity （SWGARCH） in order to capture heteroscedasticity and regime change. The results lead to two main conclusions： First, a VaR model must incorporate heteroscedasticity and regime switching in order to describe the variance of the tested series, submitted to brisk changes of economic and political scenarios. Second, a volatility-based VaR do not necessarily generate forward-looking indicators, but rather coincident indicators of possible financial vulnerabilities. The future research will evolve towards evaluating the effects of the Basel III recommendations as if they could be applied to this crisis period.
文摘Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71271042)the Plan of Jiangsu Specially-Appointed Professors,the Jiangsu Hi-Level Innovative and Entrepreneurship Talent Introduction Plan and Major Program of Key Research Center in Financial Risk Management of Jiangsu Universities Philosophy Social Sciences(Grant No.2012JDXM009)
文摘In the paper, using Levy processes subordinated by ＇asymptotically self-similar activity time＇ pro- cesses with long-range dependence, we set up new asset pricing models. Using the different construction for gamma （F） based ＇asymptotically self-similar activity time＇ processes with long-range dependence from Fin- lay and Seneta （2006） we extend the constructions for inverse-gamma and gamma based ＇asymptotically self- similar activity time＇ processes with integer-vMued parameters and long-range dependence in Heyde and Leo- nenko （2005） and Finlay and Seneta （2006） to noninteger-valued parameters.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin under Grant No.09JCYBJC01800
文摘This paper considers the optimal investment problem for an insurer in the sense of maximizing the adjustment coefficient of the risk process.The authors propose a modified periodic risk model in which the periodic risk process is perturbed by a standard Brownian motion.The insurer can invest in multiple risky assets and one risk-free asset and the correlations between the risky assets and the risk process are considered.Optimal strategy is obtained explicitly,which is a function of time and related to the risk process.The effects of market parameters on the optimal strategy are discussed and a numerical example is also given.
文摘The pricing theories of capital assets are the principal part in the modern financial theories. Presently, the capital asset pricing model and the arbitrage pricing theory, including their evolutional forms, all don＇t embody the premium of non-system risks and non-factor risks. This paper analyses the risk reward of traditional capital assets pricing models, revises the traditional capital assets pricing models, and advances the revised models of capital assets pricing theories basing on full-risk reward.
文摘This paper introduces the disposition effect into asset pricing process, and sets dynamic equilibrium model on which we can discuss the pattern of risk assets＇ returns. On base of theory results, we use data of China stock market to analyze the influence of disposition effect on stock return. The empirical study result confirms the disposition effect＇s existence in China stock market and it does affect the stock return.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40675023the "985" Project of Hunan Universitythe Guangxi Natural Science Foundation under Grant No. 0991091
文摘This paper generalizes European call options on the extremum of several risky assets in a Poisson-Gaussian model which allows both the risky assets and stochastic interest rates moving randomly with jump risks. The stochastic interest rate is assumed to follow an extended multi-factor HJM model with jumps. The authors provide explicitly the closed-form solutions of these options through the change of numeralre technique and examine the effects of both jump risks and stochastic interest rate on the option price with numerical experiment. The model can be seen as an extension of Stulz （1982）, Johnson （1987） and Lindset （2006）.
基金supported by National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program) under Grant No. 2007CB814905the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11171164
文摘In this paper, the surplus process is assumed to be a periodic risk model and the insurer is allowed to invest in multiple risky assets described by the Black-Scholes market model. Under shortselling prohibition, the authors consider the optimal investment from an insurer＇s point of view by maximizing the adjustment coefficent and the expected exponential utility of wealth at one period, respectively. It is shown that the optimal strategies of both of optimization problems are to invest a fixed amount of money in each risky asset.
文摘This paper developed a model for pricing catastrophe bond whose trigger is loss index. In the model Esscher transform which is a facility usually used in actuarial science now provides an easy way to calculate Radon-Nikodym derivative so that the whole pricing process becomes easier to understand. At the end of this paper we use this model to price a China typhoon catastrophe bond which is also designed by us.
文摘Two important issues in exit of venture capital, exit timing and exit approaches, are analyzed. Based on the real options theory and the contingent claims analysis, it develops approach-selecting models in terms of Trade-sales and Initial Public Offers and corresponding timing models. Furthermore, thresholds of cash flows as well as value of real options are derived. Finally, decision criteria of exit of venture capital are obtained and empirical evidence shows that the criteria agree with the real investment activities very well.
