基于Copula函数的HW一致性检验修正方法

识别地区分布相同的站点,划分为一致区,是运用地区线性矩法进行降雨频率分析的基础。雨量序列间的相关性往往导致Hosking-Wallis一致性检验的结果偏小,影响检验的准确性。利用江西省936站24 h年最大降雨量序列,研究实测雨量资料间的相关性随资料长度及站点距离的分布。结合Hosking-Wallis一致性检验的定义,定性分析雨量资料相关性对检验结果产生影响的原因,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟实验,定量分析相关性大小对检验结果的不同影响。同时,根据雨量资料相关性对一致性检验产生影响的原因及特性,基于正态Copula函数生成与研究区域资料序列具有相同相关性的人工模拟资料,对Hosking-Wallis一致性检验进行修正,以蒙特卡洛模拟实验证明该修正方法的有效性。

A Preliminary Evaluation of Global and East Asian Cloud Radiative Effects in Reanalyses

Cloud radiative effects （CREs） at the top of the atmosphere （TOA） in three reanalysis datasets （the Eur- opean Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts In- terim Reanalysis （ERA-Interim）, the Japanese 55-yr Re- analysis Project （JRA-55）, and the Modem-Era Retro- spective Analysis for Research and Applications （MERRA）） are evaluated using recent satellite-based observations. The reanalyses can basically capture the spatial pattern of the annual mean shortwave CRE, but the global mean longwave CRE in ERA-interim and JRA55 is weaker than observed, leading to overestimations of the net CRE. Moreover, distinct CRE biases of the reanalyses occur in the Intertropical Convergence Zone （ITCZ）, coastal Pa- cific and Atlantic regions, and East Asia. Quantitative examination further indicates that the spatial correlations of CREs and TOA upward radiation fluxes with corre- sponding observations in ERA-Interim are better than in the other two reanalyses. Although MERRA has certain abilities in producing the magnitudes of global mean CREs, its performance in terms of spatial correlations in winter and summer are worse than for the other two re- analyses. The ability of JRA55 in reflecting CREs lies between the other two datasets. Compared to the global mean results, the spatial correlations of shortwave CRE in East Asia decrease and the biases of regional mean CREs increase in the three reanalyses. This implies that, cur- rently, it is still difficult to reproduce East Asian CREs based on these reanalyses. Relatively, ERA-Interim de- scribes the seasonal variation of East Asian CREs well, albeit weaker than observed. The present study also sug- gests that in-depth exploration of the ability of reanalysis data to describe aspects relating to cloud properties and rad- iation is needed usin~ more comprehensive observations.

A Simulation of the Upper-Tropospheric Temperature Pattern in BCC_CSM1.1

A simulation of the upper-tropospheric temperature (UTT) by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1) model is evaluated through a comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It is shown that this model has the ability to simulate the climate pattern of the UTT in all four seasons. The spatial correlation on the climatological distribution between the simulation and the observation is 0.92, 0.93, 0.90, and 0.93 for spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The first leading mode of the UTT in the simulation agrees with that in the observation, except that the simulated second leading mode corresponds to the observed first leading mode in spring. The standard deviation distribution of the simulation is also roughly consistent with the observation, with a pattern coefficient of 0.82, 0.78, 0.82, and 0.82 in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The potential UTT change in the second half of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is examined. The prominent change is that the summer UTT will increase over Eurasia and decrease over the North Pacific compared with the present, indicating that the zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific will be strengthened within the context of future global warming. The intensity of the interannual variability of the UTT over the Asian-Pacific region is also generally increased. The zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific will tend to be enhanced in winter, concurrent with the intensified interannual variability.