Conventionally, mining industry relies on a deterministic view, where a unique mine plan is determined based on a single resource model. A major shortfall of this approach is the inability to assess the risk caused by...Conventionally, mining industry relies on a deterministic view, where a unique mine plan is determined based on a single resource model. A major shortfall of this approach is the inability to assess the risk caused by the well-known geological uncertainty, i.e. the in situ grade and tonnage variability of the mineral deposit. Despite some recent attempts in developing stochastic mine planning models which have demonstrated promising results, the industry still remains sceptical about this innovative idea. With respect to unbiased linear estimation, kriging is the most popular and reliable deterministic interpolation technique for resource estimation and it appears to remain its popularity in the near future. This paper presents a new systematic framework to quantify the risk of kriging-based mining projects due to the geological uncertainties. Firstly, conditional simulation is implemented to generate a series of equally-probable orebody realisations and these realisations are then compared with the kriged resource model to analyse its geological uncertainty. Secondly, a production schedule over the life of mine is determined based on the kriged resource model. Finally, risk profiles of that production schedule, namely ore and waste tonnage production, blending grade and Net Present Value （NPV）, are constructed using the orebody realisations. The proposed model was applied on a multi-element deposit and the result demonstrates that that the kriging-based mine plan is unlikely to meet the production targets. Especially, the kriging-based mine plan overestimated the expected NPV at a magnitude of 6.70% to 7.34% （135 M$ to 151 M$）. A new multivariate conditional simulation framework was also introduced in this paper to cope with the multivariate nature of the deposit. Although an iron ore deposit is used to prove the concepts, the method can easily be adapted to other kinds of mineral deposits, including surface coal mine.展开更多
This work re-examined the simulation result of game analysis (Joshi et al., 2000) based on an agent-based model, Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market. Allowing for recent research work on this artificial model, ...This work re-examined the simulation result of game analysis (Joshi et al., 2000) based on an agent-based model, Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market. Allowing for recent research work on this artificial model, this paper’s modified game simulations found that the dividend amplitude parameter is a crucial factor and that the original conclusion still holds in a not long period, but only when the dividend amplitude is large enough. Our explanation of this result is that the dividend amplitude pa- rameter is a measurement of market uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the price volatility, and so is the risk of investing in the stock market. The greater the risk, the greater the advantage of including technical rules.展开更多
The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among personality, physical self-description, and social physique anxiety in employees of a hospital in Yunlin, Taiwan. Questionnaires were submitted to 4...The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among personality, physical self-description, and social physique anxiety in employees of a hospital in Yunlin, Taiwan. Questionnaires were submitted to 400 nurses and of which 386 were completed, resulting in a response rate of 96.5%. A sample of this size ensured the validity and reliability of the results. The data were analyzed using statistical analysis and techniques such as frequencies, means and path analysis using computer software SPSS for Windows 15.0 and LISREL 8.72. The results demonstrate （1） a significant, direct, and positive effect of personality on physical self-description; （2） a significant, direct, and negative effect of physical self-description on social physique anxiety; and （3） an indirect negative effect of personality on social physique anxiety through physical self-description. All paths in the model were significant （p 〈 0.05）. Analysis using linear structural relational model （LISREL） demonstrated the suitability of the framework and proved that the model used was applicable for this research. The results of this research will be used as a reference to develop strategies for human resource management in Taiwan Residents hospitals.展开更多
Resource reuse and sustainability are gradually becoming hot issues nowadays. Waste paper is an important material in paper reproducing. Comparing to wood pulp, waste paper is more energy-saving and environmentally-fr...Resource reuse and sustainability are gradually becoming hot issues nowadays. Waste paper is an important material in paper reproducing. Comparing to wood pulp, waste paper is more energy-saving and environmentally-friendly. Being a top of one paper producing country in the world, China needs a continuous large quantity of waste paper supply. Waste paper strategy＂ is being taken seriously until the ti^ding of paper manufacttlring period. This paper strives to examine the waste paper circle and the changes of waste paper resource strategy in China nowadays by doing both amount and price analysis on waste paper trade. It is found that China now strives to promote a sustainability of waste paper resource reuse by drawing down waste paper import, increasing domestic reuse and increasing import channels and categories.展开更多
In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybde...In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.展开更多
This paper generalizes European call options on the extremum of several risky assets in a Poisson-Gaussian model which allows both the risky assets and stochastic interest rates moving randomly with jump risks. The st...This paper generalizes European call options on the extremum of several risky assets in a Poisson-Gaussian model which allows both the risky assets and stochastic interest rates moving randomly with jump risks. The stochastic interest rate is assumed to follow an extended multi-factor HJM model with jumps. The authors provide explicitly the closed-form solutions of these options through the change of numeralre technique and examine the effects of both jump risks and stochastic interest rate on the option price with numerical experiment. The model can be seen as an extension of Stulz （1982）, Johnson （1987） and Lindset （2006）.展开更多
文摘Conventionally, mining industry relies on a deterministic view, where a unique mine plan is determined based on a single resource model. A major shortfall of this approach is the inability to assess the risk caused by the well-known geological uncertainty, i.e. the in situ grade and tonnage variability of the mineral deposit. Despite some recent attempts in developing stochastic mine planning models which have demonstrated promising results, the industry still remains sceptical about this innovative idea. With respect to unbiased linear estimation, kriging is the most popular and reliable deterministic interpolation technique for resource estimation and it appears to remain its popularity in the near future. This paper presents a new systematic framework to quantify the risk of kriging-based mining projects due to the geological uncertainties. Firstly, conditional simulation is implemented to generate a series of equally-probable orebody realisations and these realisations are then compared with the kriged resource model to analyse its geological uncertainty. Secondly, a production schedule over the life of mine is determined based on the kriged resource model. Finally, risk profiles of that production schedule, namely ore and waste tonnage production, blending grade and Net Present Value （NPV）, are constructed using the orebody realisations. The proposed model was applied on a multi-element deposit and the result demonstrates that that the kriging-based mine plan is unlikely to meet the production targets. Especially, the kriging-based mine plan overestimated the expected NPV at a magnitude of 6.70% to 7.34% （135 M$ to 151 M$）. A new multivariate conditional simulation framework was also introduced in this paper to cope with the multivariate nature of the deposit. Although an iron ore deposit is used to prove the concepts, the method can easily be adapted to other kinds of mineral deposits, including surface coal mine.
基金Project supported by the Talent Project Foundation of Zhejiang Province, China
文摘This work re-examined the simulation result of game analysis (Joshi et al., 2000) based on an agent-based model, Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market. Allowing for recent research work on this artificial model, this paper’s modified game simulations found that the dividend amplitude parameter is a crucial factor and that the original conclusion still holds in a not long period, but only when the dividend amplitude is large enough. Our explanation of this result is that the dividend amplitude pa- rameter is a measurement of market uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the price volatility, and so is the risk of investing in the stock market. The greater the risk, the greater the advantage of including technical rules.
文摘The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among personality, physical self-description, and social physique anxiety in employees of a hospital in Yunlin, Taiwan. Questionnaires were submitted to 400 nurses and of which 386 were completed, resulting in a response rate of 96.5%. A sample of this size ensured the validity and reliability of the results. The data were analyzed using statistical analysis and techniques such as frequencies, means and path analysis using computer software SPSS for Windows 15.0 and LISREL 8.72. The results demonstrate （1） a significant, direct, and positive effect of personality on physical self-description; （2） a significant, direct, and negative effect of physical self-description on social physique anxiety; and （3） an indirect negative effect of personality on social physique anxiety through physical self-description. All paths in the model were significant （p 〈 0.05）. Analysis using linear structural relational model （LISREL） demonstrated the suitability of the framework and proved that the model used was applicable for this research. The results of this research will be used as a reference to develop strategies for human resource management in Taiwan Residents hospitals.
文摘Resource reuse and sustainability are gradually becoming hot issues nowadays. Waste paper is an important material in paper reproducing. Comparing to wood pulp, waste paper is more energy-saving and environmentally-friendly. Being a top of one paper producing country in the world, China needs a continuous large quantity of waste paper supply. Waste paper strategy＂ is being taken seriously until the ti^ding of paper manufacttlring period. This paper strives to examine the waste paper circle and the changes of waste paper resource strategy in China nowadays by doing both amount and price analysis on waste paper trade. It is found that China now strives to promote a sustainability of waste paper resource reuse by drawing down waste paper import, increasing domestic reuse and increasing import channels and categories.
文摘In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40675023the "985" Project of Hunan Universitythe Guangxi Natural Science Foundation under Grant No. 0991091
文摘This paper generalizes European call options on the extremum of several risky assets in a Poisson-Gaussian model which allows both the risky assets and stochastic interest rates moving randomly with jump risks. The stochastic interest rate is assumed to follow an extended multi-factor HJM model with jumps. The authors provide explicitly the closed-form solutions of these options through the change of numeralre technique and examine the effects of both jump risks and stochastic interest rate on the option price with numerical experiment. The model can be seen as an extension of Stulz （1982）, Johnson （1987） and Lindset （2006）.
