军事人力资源评估模型研究

构建科学合理的军事人力资源模拟模型,可为研究和评估军事人力资源政策制度提供工具支撑。以计算机模拟方法为手段,采用人工智能技术构建军事人员模型,将军事人力资源政策转换为人员演化规则,以粒子群优化算法来设计军事人员演化过程,构建离散时间和事件仿真引擎推进模拟推演,分析不同政策对军事人员的等级结构、年龄分布、职业路径等影响,为军事人力资源政策研究提供了量化依据和辅助支撑,为人力资源相关研究提供了参考。

头足类资源评估模型及其影响因素的研究进展

头足类是海洋生态系统的重要组成部分,也是目前世界上最具开发潜力的渔业资源之一,对该资源进行科学评估是实现其可持续利用的关键。不同于传统的鱼类种群,头足类具有生命周期短、生长速度快、种群结构复杂等生物学特点,且其资源量极易受到海洋环境波动的影响,使得头足类种群动力学和资源评估研究与传统鱼类资源相比面临着更多困难和挑战。本文总结了头足类的生活史特征及其资源与海洋环境因子的关系对资源评估的影响,并梳理了主要评估模型对头足类资源评估的适用性。分析认为,当前经过改进的衰减模型和剩余产量模型应用最为广泛,但仍无法制定出具有时效性的渔业管理措施。为此,文章从提高输入参数的准确度和可靠性、开展长期系统的资源环境调查和开发新的评估模型等方面提出了优化头足类资源评估研究的建议。

自然资源评估方法与模型在土地工程中的应用研究

本文针对土地工程领域中自然资源评估的问题展开研究,探讨了自然资源评估方法与模型在土地工程中的应用。首先,对自然资源评估的概念、目的和重要性进行了概述,并对土地工程中涉及的自然资源进行了分析。其次研究了自然资源评估方法与模型在土地工程中的应用,进一步对自然资源评估方法与模型的优势与挑战进行了分析,最后提出了相应的建议和展望,希望可以为土地工程领域的决策制定和规划设计提供科学的依据和支持,促进土地资源的可持续利用与环境保护。

渔业资源的评估方法和模型研究进展

渔业资源评估模型主要有产量模型(production models)、Delay-difference模型、消耗模型(depletion models)和年龄结构模型(age-structured models)。产量模型在渔业资源评估中应用很广泛,但不能精确反映统计误差;Delay-difference模型增加了生物参数、并考虑生物过程中的时间延迟,它是扩充了的产量模型,但当可获得的数据不足时,不能精确估算模型中的参数,甚至可能产生错误的估算值;此时,消耗模型相对于Delay-difference模型是有效的,该模型研究渔获量如何影响残存鱼的相对丰度;年龄结构模型能更好地显示种群的动态变化,能为配置合理的捕捞强度提供科学的依据,但需要很多数据,尤其要求精确的渔获物年龄数据。我国渔业资源的评估多采用产量模型和年龄结构模型,对于Delay-difference模型和消耗模型的应用甚为少见。

粤港澳大湾区城市群水资源配置模型

现有水资源评估和规划(WEAP)模型缺乏考虑地区配水优先顺序,研究基于用水安全度确定的地区配水优先度改进现有WEAP模型,并应用于粤港澳大湾区城市群水资源配置,比较了不同地区和行业配水优先顺序下的WEAP模型配水方案效果。结果表明,大湾区各市用水安全度随地区及用水行业不同呈现差异,广州、深圳、东莞生活及工业用水安全度较低;在保障生态基流的前提下,同时考虑地区和行业配水优先顺序的配水方案提升了重点地区生活及工业用水满足度,配水结果更合理;枯水期深圳及东莞用水受限,大湾区河库互联互通工程十分必要。研究同时考虑地区和行业配水优先顺序,为WEAP模型改进提供了新思路。

基于可控蒸散发的狭义水资源配置

以流域"天然-人工"二元水循环模式和水资源优化配置模型为基础,构建针对区域目标蒸散发(ET)的狭义水资源评估模型。结合流域分区经济耗水和生态耗水计算方法,给出评估模型分析过程,提出基于可控ET的水资源可持续利用评价指标。以湟水干流为例,利用针对区域目标ET的狭义水资源评估模型,阐述当地近5 a水资源开发利用过程中存在的问题,为社会经济发展规划和水资源配置格局提供建议。实例应用表明,基于区域目标ET的狭义水资源评估模型,可为流域分区的水资源配置和管理提供依据。

Integrated assessment model of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization in arid area

Water has become a key restricting factor of the urbanization process in developing arid areas.Based on qualitative and quantitative methods,we constructed an integrated in-dicator system to assess the status of water resources and urbanization system in arid area,and established an AHP model reformed by entropy technology to evaluate the temporal and spatial variations of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization.This model is ap-plied to the Hexi Corridor,a typical arid area in NW China.Results show that,water resources constraint intensity on urbanization in the Hexi Corridor is bigger in the east and smaller in the west.It has changed from the less strong constraint type into the strong constraint type from 1985 to 2005,yet it decreased appreciably in recent years.At present,most areas in the Hexi Corridor belong to the less strong or strong constraint type.Through rational adjustment of water resources and urbanization system,the Hexi Corridor can still promote water resources sustainable utilization and accelerate the urbanization process.This study suggests that the integrated assessment model of water resources constraint intensity on urbanization is an effective method to analyze the conflicts between water resources and urbanization system in arid area.

Application of WEAP Simulation Model to Hengshui City Water Planning

Like many river basins in China, water resources in the Fudong Pai River are almost fully allocated. This paper seeks to assess and evaluate water resource problems using water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model via its application to Hengshui Basin of Fudong Pai River. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocation scenarios and, above all, scenarios of users' behavior. Water demand management is one of the options discussed in detail. Simulations are proposed for diverse climatic situations from dry years to normal years and results are discussed. Within the limits of data availability, it appears that most water users are not able to meet all their requirements from the river, and that even the ecological reserve will not be fully met during certain years. But the adoption of water demand management procedures offers opportunities for remedying this situation during normal hydrological years. However, it appears that demand management alone will not suffice during dry years. Nevertheless, the ease of use of the model and its user-friendly interfaces make it particularly useful for discussions and dialogue on water resources management among stakeholders.

Fishery stock assessment of Kiddi shrimp (Parapenaeopsis stylifera) in the Northern Arabian Sea Coast of Pakistan by using surplus production models

Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime. Due to poor management and policy implications, blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses. Thus, it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting. In this study, catch and effort data, 1996-2009, of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp. Maximum, minimum and average capture production ofP. stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons （mr） （1997）, 9 438 mt （2009） and 11 667 mt/a. Two stock assessment tools viz. CEDA （catch and effort data analysis） and ASPIC （a stock production model incorporating covariates） were used to compute MSY （maximum sustainable yield） of this organism. In CEDA, three surplus production models, Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson, along with three error assumptions, log, log normal and gamma, were used. For initial proportion （IP） 0.8, the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 nat （CV=0.204, R^2=0.709） and 7 384 mt （CV=0.149, R^2=0.72） for log and log normal error assumption respectively. Here, gamma error produced minimization failure. Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log, log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e. 7 083 mt, 8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly. The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R2 （0.712） values. ASPIC computed MSY, CV, R2, FMsv and BMsv parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 nat, 0.142, 0.872, 0.111 and 65 280, while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt, 0.148, 0.868, 0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly. Results obtained have shown that P. stylifera has been overexploited. Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.

Impacts of distorted fishery statistical data on assessments of three surplus production models

We evaluated the effect of various error sources in fishery harvest/effort data on the maximum sustainable yield （MSY） and corresponding fishing effort （EMsv） using Monte Carlo simulation analyses. A high coefficient of variation （CV） of the catch and effort values biased the estimates of MSY and EMsv. Thus, the state of the fisheries resource and its exploitation was overestimated. We compared the effect using three surplus production models, Hilborn-Waters （H-W）, Schnute, and Prager models. The estimates generated using the H-W model were significantly affected by the CV. The Schnute model was least affected by errors in the underlying data. The CVof the catch data had a greater impact on the assessment than the CV of the fishing effort. Similarly, the changes in CV had a greater impact on the estimated maximum sustainable yield （MSY） than on the corresponding estimate of fishing effort （EMsY）. We discuss the likely effect of these biases on management efforts and provide suggestions for the improvement of fishery evaluations.

The Application of Expand Option of Real Options in Human Resources Evaluation

The traditional models of evaluating human resources are mainly based upon the discounted value of future payment, but these models fail to take the employment risk into account, and often neglect the uncertainty and underes- timate the human resource value. This paper first introduces the option theory, and then presents human resources as the real commodity for the call option. Second, concerning the choices for the uncertainty decision, the decisions of delay- ing the employment of the human resources, expanding or deducing the scale of human resources, giving up or chang- ing human resources, etc., are made to deal with the future uncertainties appropriately. This will cause the investment to be more beneficial or to reduce the loss. Finally, the expand option theory of real options is used to evaluate the value of reinvestment in human resources, and the expand option theory could be provided as a reference for management im- plementation and decision-making in human resources.

Study on the rights and interests value of mineral resources and its evaluation method

The rights and interests value of mineral resources includes the prospecting rights value and the mining rights value. The mining rights value is made up of the min-eral resources value and the compensation value based on the inputs of capitals and labors in different exploration stage, the prospecting rights value should be equal to ex-ploration differential rent of resources. According to the stage characteristic of mineral resources exploration and development, the initial evaluating methods and models are used to evaluate the prospecting rights and mining rights value.

Distributed Estimation and Analysis of Precipitation Recharge Coefficient in Strongly-exploited Beijing Plain Area, China

The precipitation recharge coefficient(PRC), representing the amount of groundwater recharge from precipitation, is an important parameter for groundwater resources evaluation and numerical simulation. It was usually obtained from empirical knowledge and site experiments in the 1980 s. However, the environmental settings have been greatly modified from that time due to land use change and groundwater over-pumping, especially in the Beijing plain area(BPA). This paper aims to estimate and analyze PRC of BPA with the distributed hydrological model and GIS for the year 2011 with similar annual precipitation as long-term mean. It is found that the recharge from vertical(precipitation + irrigation) and precipitation is 291.0 mm/yr and 233.7 mm/yr, respectively, which accounts for 38.6% and 36.6% of corresponding input water. The regional mean PRC is 0.366, which is a little different from the traditional map. However, it has a spatial variation ranging from –7.0% to 17.5% for various sub-regions. Since the vadose zone is now much thicker than the evaporation extinction depth, the land cover is regarded as the major dynamic factor that causes the variation of PRC in this area due to the difference of evapotranspiration rates. It is suggested that the negative impact of reforestation on groundwater quantity within BPA should be well investigated, because the PRC beneath forestland is the smallest among all land cover types.