中国重要金属矿产资源现状、供需、进出口数据集

金属矿产是经济社会发展的物质基础。本数据集采集了16种对国民经济发展有重要影响的大宗紧缺矿产(铁、锰、铜、铝、金、铅、锌、镍、铬)、优势矿产(钨、钼、锡、锑)及战略新兴矿产(锂、钴、钛)2006—2017年的世界及中国资源储量、原矿产量、消费量、贸易量及贸易金额等数据。数据集为Excel表格型数据,包含6个sheet表(世界资源量、中国查明资源储量、中国基础储量、中国原矿产量、中国原矿消费量、中国进出口量),旨在分析研究我国在工业化进程中后期阶段所需重要金属矿产的资源现状和供需趋势。数据集显示:①我国大宗紧缺矿产如铁、锰、铜、金等查明资源储量虽稳步增长,但开采消耗量大,使得基础储量增速缓慢;未来需求总量仍将维持高位,国内保障程度不足,进口量持续攀升。优势矿产资源钨、锑储采比低,后备资源接替不足,优势程度下降;②战略新兴矿产锂、钴、钛资源量、基础储量增长缓慢或呈下降态势,国内资源品质较差,难利用资源多;产量、消费量近十年快速增长,且未来将持续高增长,国内资源储量增长缓慢,供需矛盾凸显。该数据集对已有金属矿产供需数据的收集和总结,为今后金属矿产勘查及战略部署提供参考。

Impacts of distorted fishery statistical data on assessments of three surplus production models

We evaluated the effect of various error sources in fishery harvest/effort data on the maximum sustainable yield （MSY） and corresponding fishing effort （EMsv） using Monte Carlo simulation analyses. A high coefficient of variation （CV） of the catch and effort values biased the estimates of MSY and EMsv. Thus, the state of the fisheries resource and its exploitation was overestimated. We compared the effect using three surplus production models, Hilborn-Waters （H-W）, Schnute, and Prager models. The estimates generated using the H-W model were significantly affected by the CV. The Schnute model was least affected by errors in the underlying data. The CVof the catch data had a greater impact on the assessment than the CV of the fishing effort. Similarly, the changes in CV had a greater impact on the estimated maximum sustainable yield （MSY） than on the corresponding estimate of fishing effort （EMsY）. We discuss the likely effect of these biases on management efforts and provide suggestions for the improvement of fishery evaluations.

Estimation of correction coefficients for measured coal bed methane contents

Improving the accuracy and precision of coal bed methane(CBM) estimates requires correction of older data from older coal exploration surveys to newer standards.Three methods,the depth gradient method,the contour aerial weight method,and the well-point aerial weight method,were used to estimate the correction coefficient required to predict CBM gas content from coal exploration data.The data from the Nos.3 and 15 coal seams provided the coal exploration data while the CBM exploration stages within the X1 well block located in the southern part of the Qinshui Basin provided the data obtained using newer standards.The results show the correction coefficients obtained from the two aerial weight methods are similar in value but lower than the one obtained from the depth gradient method.The three methods provide similar results for the Nos.3 and 15 seams in that the correction factor is lower for the former seam.The results from the depth gradient method taken together with the coal seam burial depth and the coal rank suggest that variations in the correction factor increase linearly along with coal seam burial depth and coal rank.The correlation obtained can be applied to exploration and the evaluation of coal bed gas resources located in coalfields.

Climate Change and its Impact on Water Resources in the Huai River Basin

Rainfall and air temperature data from six meteorological stations above the Bengbu Sluice and hydrological and water resources evaluation data from the Bengbu Hydrological Station in the Huai River Basin from 1961 to 2008 are used to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors on the amount of water resources in the Basin. There was a general trend of rise in its average annual air temperature, with the highest increase of 0.289℃/10a recorded at Bengbu in Anhui Province. Rising rainfall was mainly observed in the western part of the study area, while rainfall actually declined in the eastern part, i.e. the middle reaches of the Huai River. The Average rainfall in the study area was in a vaguely declining trend. In other words, the rainfall in the Basin is still much affected by natural fluctuations. On the whole, there was a trend of gradual decrease in the quantity of the Basin＇s water resources for the period under study. Water resources quantity is found to fall with decreasing rainfall and rising air temperature. Regression analysis is used to establish a mathematical model between water resources quantity and climatic factors （i.e. air temperature and rainfall） in order to explore the impact of climate change on water resources in the Basin. Moreover, various scenarios are set to quantitatively analyze the response of water resources to climate change. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in rainfall have a much bigger impact on its water resources quantity than changes in its air temperature.