Throughout the decision-making process, prudent investors must address questions regarding the probabilities of future profit gain. In this study, the probability-based discounted cash flow （DCF） method with net pre...Throughout the decision-making process, prudent investors must address questions regarding the probabilities of future profit gain. In this study, the probability-based discounted cash flow （DCF） method with net present value （NPV） as the indicator was adopted as an analysis tool. A probabilistic framework for measuring exceeding probability of annual rate of return on a commercial real estate investment under a specified holding period was developed. Based on the framework, the relation curves of annual rate of return versus the corresponding exceeding probability of return for available financing schemes were constructed. These curves were used as a tool to prioritize the schemes and inform decision-making. An example case is presented to demonstrate the decision-making process developed in this study. Through the proposed process, investors are given basic information on the return, probability that profit gain will occur, and feasibility of financial schemes for commercial real estate investments.展开更多
The simplification of fatigue load spectrum,which can effectively reduce experimental cost,is of great importance for structural fatigue tests.By introducing random variables,the probabilistic tolerance method of remo...The simplification of fatigue load spectrum,which can effectively reduce experimental cost,is of great importance for structural fatigue tests.By introducing random variables,the probabilistic tolerance method of removing small amplitude cycles proposed in this paper takes into account the randomness of both load and fatigue limit.The probability of the damage occurrence caused by the removed small loads is calculated to ensure that it cannot exceed the given probabilistic tolerance.Accordingly,the omission level is obtained and the truncated spectrum is formed.The unnotched aluminum sheet specimens are used to perform the fatigue test on the original fatigue spectrum and truncated fatigue spectrum of a transporter.The test results show that there is no statistical difference between the test life of the truncated spectrum and that of the original spectrum,which demonstrates the validity of the small-load-omitting method that considers randomness.展开更多
文摘Throughout the decision-making process, prudent investors must address questions regarding the probabilities of future profit gain. In this study, the probability-based discounted cash flow （DCF） method with net present value （NPV） as the indicator was adopted as an analysis tool. A probabilistic framework for measuring exceeding probability of annual rate of return on a commercial real estate investment under a specified holding period was developed. Based on the framework, the relation curves of annual rate of return versus the corresponding exceeding probability of return for available financing schemes were constructed. These curves were used as a tool to prioritize the schemes and inform decision-making. An example case is presented to demonstrate the decision-making process developed in this study. Through the proposed process, investors are given basic information on the return, probability that profit gain will occur, and feasibility of financial schemes for commercial real estate investments.
基金supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)National Natural Science Foundations of China(Nos.52075244,52002181)。
文摘The simplification of fatigue load spectrum,which can effectively reduce experimental cost,is of great importance for structural fatigue tests.By introducing random variables,the probabilistic tolerance method of removing small amplitude cycles proposed in this paper takes into account the randomness of both load and fatigue limit.The probability of the damage occurrence caused by the removed small loads is calculated to ensure that it cannot exceed the given probabilistic tolerance.Accordingly,the omission level is obtained and the truncated spectrum is formed.The unnotched aluminum sheet specimens are used to perform the fatigue test on the original fatigue spectrum and truncated fatigue spectrum of a transporter.The test results show that there is no statistical difference between the test life of the truncated spectrum and that of the original spectrum,which demonstrates the validity of the small-load-omitting method that considers randomness.
