Hotspot topic trends can be captured by analyzing user attributes and historical behavior in social network. In this paper, we propose a user participation behavior prediction model for social hotspots, based on user ...Hotspot topic trends can be captured by analyzing user attributes and historical behavior in social network. In this paper, we propose a user participation behavior prediction model for social hotspots, based on user behavior and relationship data, to predict user participation behavior and topic development trends. Firstly, for the complex factors of user behavior, three dynamic influence factor functions are defined, including individual, peer and community influence. These functions take timeliness into account using a time discretization method. Secondly, to determine laws of individual behavior and group behavior within a social topic, a hotspot user participation behavior prediction model is proposed and associated with the basic concepts of randora field and Markov property in information diffusion. The experimental results show that the model can not only dynamically predict the individual behavior, but also grasp the development trends of topics.展开更多
The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earth...The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake, but prominent anomalies were observed, such as the long and mid-term trend anomaly characterized by the seismic quiescence of Ms6. 0, MsS. 0 and Ms4.0 earthquakes, and the anomalies in precursor observation of surface water temperature in Yushu and Delingha and electromagnetic measurement in Ping＇an. There were a large number of animal behavior anomalies appearing one week before the earthquake. An M4.7 earthquake occurred 130 minutes before the main shock. In this paper, we studied the dynamic process of the Yushu earthquake preparation using the earthquake focal mechanism solutions on the Bayan Har block boundary since 1996. The results show that the Kalakunlun M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the Mani M7.5 earthquake and the Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake have the same dynamic process. Long and mid-term trend anomalies may be related to the dynamics of evolution of different earthquakes. This paper also discusses the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes, foreshock identification and precursor observation of the Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake.展开更多
An increasing trend in use of tracking devices such as geolocators is based on the assumption that the information gathered from such devices provides reliable information about the migratory behavior of free-living b...An increasing trend in use of tracking devices such as geolocators is based on the assumption that the information gathered from such devices provides reliable information about the migratory behavior of free-living birds. This underlying as- sumption is rarely tested, as evidenced by the absence in many studies of controls, in particular treated controls, and so far never with a reasonable statistical power. Published studies have shown reduced survival prospects or delayed breeding in some species, suggesting that there may be reason to doubt that tracking devices provide unbiased information. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies applying geolocators to wild birds to determine whether geolocators affected fitness components. Ge- olocators had an overall negative effect on fitness components, in particular survival, and ecological variables. Effect size was larger for aerial foragers than for other species. Moreover the leg band attachment method was more detrimental for birds than the leg-loop backpack harness. A meta-regression model of effect size showed independent negative effects of geolocators on ae- rial foragers, smaller species, species with smaller migration distances and in studies where geolocators were attached with a ring. These results suggest that geolocator studies should be interpreted with caution, but also raise questions whether it is ethically defensible to use geolocators on aerial foragers or small species without carrying out robust pilot studies.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program(973 program)of China(No.2013CB329606)National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61272400)+2 种基金Science and Technology Research Program of the Chongqing Municipal Education Committee(No.KJ1500425)Wen Feng Foundation of CQUPT(No.WF201403)Chongqing Graduate Research And Innovation Project(No.CYS14146)
文摘Hotspot topic trends can be captured by analyzing user attributes and historical behavior in social network. In this paper, we propose a user participation behavior prediction model for social hotspots, based on user behavior and relationship data, to predict user participation behavior and topic development trends. Firstly, for the complex factors of user behavior, three dynamic influence factor functions are defined, including individual, peer and community influence. These functions take timeliness into account using a time discretization method. Secondly, to determine laws of individual behavior and group behavior within a social topic, a hotspot user participation behavior prediction model is proposed and associated with the basic concepts of randora field and Markov property in information diffusion. The experimental results show that the model can not only dynamically predict the individual behavior, but also grasp the development trends of topics.
基金funded by Earthquake Tendency Tracing of 2011 of Department of Monitoring and Prediction of CEA under the"Earthquake Short and Imminent Prediction Climb Program of2020"(2011016301)
文摘The authors studied the seismic activity, precursory anomalies and abnormal animal behavior before the April 14, 2010 Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake. Analysis showed that anomalies were not rich before the Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake, but prominent anomalies were observed, such as the long and mid-term trend anomaly characterized by the seismic quiescence of Ms6. 0, MsS. 0 and Ms4.0 earthquakes, and the anomalies in precursor observation of surface water temperature in Yushu and Delingha and electromagnetic measurement in Ping＇an. There were a large number of animal behavior anomalies appearing one week before the earthquake. An M4.7 earthquake occurred 130 minutes before the main shock. In this paper, we studied the dynamic process of the Yushu earthquake preparation using the earthquake focal mechanism solutions on the Bayan Har block boundary since 1996. The results show that the Kalakunlun M7.1 earthquake in 1996, the Mani M7.5 earthquake and the Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake have the same dynamic process. Long and mid-term trend anomalies may be related to the dynamics of evolution of different earthquakes. This paper also discusses the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes, foreshock identification and precursor observation of the Yushu Ms7. 1 earthquake.
文摘An increasing trend in use of tracking devices such as geolocators is based on the assumption that the information gathered from such devices provides reliable information about the migratory behavior of free-living birds. This underlying as- sumption is rarely tested, as evidenced by the absence in many studies of controls, in particular treated controls, and so far never with a reasonable statistical power. Published studies have shown reduced survival prospects or delayed breeding in some species, suggesting that there may be reason to doubt that tracking devices provide unbiased information. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies applying geolocators to wild birds to determine whether geolocators affected fitness components. Ge- olocators had an overall negative effect on fitness components, in particular survival, and ecological variables. Effect size was larger for aerial foragers than for other species. Moreover the leg band attachment method was more detrimental for birds than the leg-loop backpack harness. A meta-regression model of effect size showed independent negative effects of geolocators on ae- rial foragers, smaller species, species with smaller migration distances and in studies where geolocators were attached with a ring. These results suggest that geolocator studies should be interpreted with caution, but also raise questions whether it is ethically defensible to use geolocators on aerial foragers or small species without carrying out robust pilot studies.
