The application of ti me-series modeling and forecasting method to the spectral analysis for lubricat ing oil of mechanical equipment is discussed. The AR model is used to perform a time-series modeling and forecasti...The application of ti me-series modeling and forecasting method to the spectral analysis for lubricat ing oil of mechanical equipment is discussed. The AR model is used to perform a time-series modeling and forecasting analysis for the spectral analysis data co llected from aero-engines. In the oil condition monitoring field of mechanical equipment, the use of the method of time-series analysis has rarely been report ed. As indicated in the satisfactory example, a practical method for condition m onitoring and fault forecasting of mechanical equipment has been achieved.展开更多
This paper presents a game-theoretic method to predict microgrid(MG) development tendency in China. As many distribution generators(DGs) are integrated in distribution systems, analysis of MG formation necessity is co...This paper presents a game-theoretic method to predict microgrid(MG) development tendency in China. As many distribution generators(DGs) are integrated in distribution systems, analysis of MG formation necessity is conducted from the aspect of DGs. In order to maximize the profit brought by DGs and to earn money from arbitrage, it may be necessary for customers to combine their DGs and loads and to construct an MG to obtain maximal control ability. A game model is built to emulate trading between MGs and the distribution system based on MG power control, in which both trading profit and outage cost are considered for each MG. Nash equilibrium(NE) is calculated, and sensitivities of NE to some boundary conditions are studied. The results show that variable MG trading prices with appropriate net generation cost(i.e., DG generation cost minus government subsidy price) may encourage the growth of MGs. Government subsidies, generation costs, and trading prices may also affect DG use, and therefore they may impact customer motivation to build MGs.展开更多
文摘The application of ti me-series modeling and forecasting method to the spectral analysis for lubricat ing oil of mechanical equipment is discussed. The AR model is used to perform a time-series modeling and forecasting analysis for the spectral analysis data co llected from aero-engines. In the oil condition monitoring field of mechanical equipment, the use of the method of time-series analysis has rarely been report ed. As indicated in the satisfactory example, a practical method for condition m onitoring and fault forecasting of mechanical equipment has been achieved.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51321005)the National Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of China("863"Project)(Grant No.2012AA050217)
文摘This paper presents a game-theoretic method to predict microgrid(MG) development tendency in China. As many distribution generators(DGs) are integrated in distribution systems, analysis of MG formation necessity is conducted from the aspect of DGs. In order to maximize the profit brought by DGs and to earn money from arbitrage, it may be necessary for customers to combine their DGs and loads and to construct an MG to obtain maximal control ability. A game model is built to emulate trading between MGs and the distribution system based on MG power control, in which both trading profit and outage cost are considered for each MG. Nash equilibrium(NE) is calculated, and sensitivities of NE to some boundary conditions are studied. The results show that variable MG trading prices with appropriate net generation cost(i.e., DG generation cost minus government subsidy price) may encourage the growth of MGs. Government subsidies, generation costs, and trading prices may also affect DG use, and therefore they may impact customer motivation to build MGs.
