双碳目标下黄河流域内流区水能牧生态治理一体化开发模式研究

2020年习近平总书记做出“力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和”的庄严承诺,我国能源发展步入以“双碳”目标为导向、以构建新型电力系统为路径、以可再生能源高质量发展为核心的新时代。结合双碳目标和黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展对黄河流域再生能源的要求,以黄河流域内流区丰富的风能、光能、土地资源及邻近的黄河河谷及支流河谷具备建设大规模抽水蓄能电站的条件为基础,充分利用抽水蓄能电站灵活调节能力与风电、光电的出力互补特性,并结合光伏电站进行牧业开发,形成能牧一体化开发模式,可建成超亿千瓦级的清洁能源基地和2.2万hm2的牧业基地,总装机容量规模近3.86亿kW,年发电量超6 000亿kW·h,可养光伏羊约500万只,初步匡算每年可减少碳排放5.12亿t、减碳效益达215亿元。提出了所需水资源的解决途径,初步分析了建设能源基地的财务可行性。

A Technical Review of Hydro-Project Development in China

This paper summarizes the development of hydro-projects in China,blended with an international perspective.It expounds major technical progress toward ensuring the safe construction of high dams and river harnessing,and covers the theorization of uneven non-equilibrium sediment transport,inter-basin water diversion,giant hydro-generator units,pumped storage power stations,underground caverns,ecological protection,and so on.

Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in the Water Receiving Area of the Middle Route Project for South-to-North Water Transfer

Climate change will lead to a significant alteration in the temporal and spatial pattern variation in the regional hydrological cycle, and the subsequent lack of water, environmental deterioration, floods and droughts etc. And it is especially remarkable in semi-humid and semi-arid region. In this paper, the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle were analyzed for the Hai River Basin, a semi-humid and semi-arid basin and also the water receiving area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion project. Meanwhile it is the most vulnerable to climate change. Firstly, the linear regression and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test methods were used to analyze the change characteristics of the hydrological and meteorological elements for the period from 1960 to 2009. The results show a significant increase in temperature, while precipitation decreases slightly, and runoff decreases drastically over the past 50 years. Secondly, the applicability of SWAT （Soil and Water Assessment Tool） model based on the DEM （Digital Elevation Model）, land use and soil type was verified in the basin. Results show the model performs well in this basin. Furthermore, the water balance model, Fu＇s theory and Koichiro＇s theory were used to calculate the actual evaporation, comparing to the simulated actual evaporation by SWAT model to validate the result for the lack of large-scale observed evaporation datasets. Possible reasons were also analyzed to explore the reasonable factor for the decline of the runoff. Finally the precipitation, temperature, runoff and evaporation response processes based on the IPCC AR4 multi-mode climate models and the verified SWAT model under different GHG emission scenarios （SRES-A2, AIB and B1） in the 21st century were discussed in three time periods： 2020s （2011-2040）, 20S0s （2041-2070）, 2080s （2071-2099）. Results show that there are systematic positive trends for precipitation and temperature while the trends for runoff and evaporation will differ among sub-areas. The results will offer some references for adaptive water management in a changing environment, also including adaptation of a cross-basin water transfer project.

Analysis of Asynchronism-Synchronism of Regional Precipitation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer Areas

The local characteristics of multi-dimensional modeling method of multivariate copula. A new modeling remedy this defect. Different types of copula distribution random variables are seldom considered in the general method, called pair-copula construction, is introduced to functions are allowed to be introduced in this method. Correspondingly, the related characteristics of complex multivariate can be described by a cascade of pair-copula acting on two variables at a time. In the analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitation in WED inter- basin water transfer areas, the pair-copula construction method is compared with the general modeling method of mul- tivariate copula. The results show that the local dependence structure would exist among hydrologic variables even in three-dimensional cases. In this situation, the general modeling method of multivariate copula would face difficulties in fitting distribution. However, the pair-copula construction method could capture the local information of hydrologic variables efficiently by introducing different types of copula distribution functions. Moreover, the compensation ca- pacity of water resources is strong in different hydrological areas of WED water transfer project. The asynchronous frequency of wetness and dryness is 69.64% and the favorable frequency for water transfer is 46.15%.

Changes in Streamflow Regime Due to Anthropogenic Regulations in the Humid Tropical Western Ghats, Kerala State, India

Regulation of streamflow by a reservoir creates a flow regime much different from the preimpoundment period flow regime. Hydro-Electric Projects(HEPs) commissioned in the Western Ghat regions of the Kerala State, India during the last four decades caused considerable changes in the flow regimes of the rivers of the Kerala State in southwest India. In this paper, the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration(IHA) approach proposed by Richter et al.(1996) is used to analyze flow regime changes in the Periyar and Muvattupuzha Rivers, due to the construction of the Idukki(1976), Idamalayar(1987) and Lower Periyar(1997) HEPs in the high ranges of the Western Ghats. Normal rainfall years(annual rainfall values within mean ± 0.75 standard deviation limits) are only considered in the analysis to focus on hydrologic alterations due to human activities. The mean hydrologic alteration in the Periyar River(deviation from the pre-development hydrologic indicator values) after commissioning of three HEPs is 35%. Inter-basin water transfer after power generation from the Idukki HEP resulted in a higher discharge in the adjacent Muvattupuzha River, leading to considerable changes in the hydroenvironment(mean hydrologic alterations varying between 57 to 63%). IHA parameters showing hydrologic alterations above the 67 th Percentile werefurther analyzed. For each of the pre-construction hydrologic parameters ± 1 standard deviation from the mean is set as the upper and lower management target limits. The values of each IHA parameter beyond these targets are considered as nonattainment. Considerable hydrologic alterations are observed, especially for low flows in both basins. Inter-basin transfer induced larger changes in flow parameters compared to intra-basin regulations. The study shows that under a proper water release and diversion scheme, the non-attainment of IHA parameters(values fall beyond the target limits) can be reduced. The findings of the study will be greatly beneficial to regional water management and restoration of an eco-environmental system in the humid tropical region.

Multi-reservoir joint operating rule in inter-basin water transfer-supply project

The joint operation of inter-basin water transfer-supply(IBWTS)project can be more complex when there is joint water demand in multi-reservoir system and multi-importing reservoirs simultaneously transferring water from exporting reservoir.In this study,a joint operating rule is proposed for the purpose of solving such complex operation problem.This rule is composed of a set of sub-rules,including hedging rule curves of virtual aggregation reservoir(i.e.equivalent reservoir)and other individual reservoirs,water-transfer rule curves of each individual reservoir,as well as some of important assisted rules.These assisted rules refer to allocation models for water transfer-supply.In the proposed rule,an equivalent reservoir is established to determine under what condition the water supply should be reduced and specify the total supplied water for joint water demand(i.e.aggregation method).Allocation models are developed to distribute the total transferred water into each importing reservoir and determine the water releases for joint water demand by each member reservoir of the aggregation system(i.e.decomposition method).And these models are integrated with a set of influence factors such as hydrologic characteristics,reservoir storage or vacant storage,regulating ability,water-supply pressure,and so on.The aggregation of multi-reservoirs and the disaggregation of water quantities are taken into a whole consideration to reduce the complexity in reallocation of water target storage or water release.Finally,the proposed rule is applied to the North-line IBWTS Project in Liaoning Province,China.The results indicate that the proposed rule can take full advantage of hydrologic compensation in basins and capacity compensation in reservoirs.Thus it can improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in system.