A non-linear regression model is proposed to forecast the aggregated passenger volume of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway(HSR) line in China. Train services and temporal features of passenger volume are studied to ...A non-linear regression model is proposed to forecast the aggregated passenger volume of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway(HSR) line in China. Train services and temporal features of passenger volume are studied to have a prior knowledge about this high-speed railway line. Then, based on a theoretical curve that depicts the relationship among passenger demand, transportation capacity and passenger volume, a non-linear regression model is established with consideration of the effect of capacity constraint. Through experiments, it is found that the proposed model can perform better in both forecasting accuracy and stability compared with linear regression models and back-propagation neural networks. In addition to the forecasting ability, with a definite formation, the proposed model can be further used to forecast the effects of train planning policies.展开更多
Involvement in road traffic crashes as vehicle occupants is a leading cause of death and serious injury among children. The objective of this study was to investigate crash severity factors and child safety restraint ...Involvement in road traffic crashes as vehicle occupants is a leading cause of death and serious injury among children. The objective of this study was to investigate crash severity factors and child safety restraint use characteristics in order to identify effective countermeasures to increase children＇s highway safety. Characteristics and percentages of restraint use among child passengers aged 4-13 years were examined using highway crash data from Kansas. The association between restraint use, injury severity and characteristics of children involved in crashes were investigated using OR （odds ratios） and a logistic regression model, which was used to identify risk factors. Results showed that children, who were unrestrained, were seated in the front seat, traveling with drunk drivers and on rural roads, and traveling during nighttime was more vulnerable to severe injury in the case of motor vehicle crashes. The most frequent contributing causes related to crashes involving children included driver＇s inattention while driving, failure to yield right-of-way, driving too fast, wet roads and animals in the road. Based on identified critical factors, general countermeasure ideas to improve children＇s traffic safety were suggested, including age-appropriate and size-appropriate seat belt restraints and having children seated in the rear seat. Parents and children must gain better education regarding these safety measures in order to increase child safety on the road.展开更多
基金Project(2014YJS080) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘A non-linear regression model is proposed to forecast the aggregated passenger volume of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway(HSR) line in China. Train services and temporal features of passenger volume are studied to have a prior knowledge about this high-speed railway line. Then, based on a theoretical curve that depicts the relationship among passenger demand, transportation capacity and passenger volume, a non-linear regression model is established with consideration of the effect of capacity constraint. Through experiments, it is found that the proposed model can perform better in both forecasting accuracy and stability compared with linear regression models and back-propagation neural networks. In addition to the forecasting ability, with a definite formation, the proposed model can be further used to forecast the effects of train planning policies.
文摘Involvement in road traffic crashes as vehicle occupants is a leading cause of death and serious injury among children. The objective of this study was to investigate crash severity factors and child safety restraint use characteristics in order to identify effective countermeasures to increase children＇s highway safety. Characteristics and percentages of restraint use among child passengers aged 4-13 years were examined using highway crash data from Kansas. The association between restraint use, injury severity and characteristics of children involved in crashes were investigated using OR （odds ratios） and a logistic regression model, which was used to identify risk factors. Results showed that children, who were unrestrained, were seated in the front seat, traveling with drunk drivers and on rural roads, and traveling during nighttime was more vulnerable to severe injury in the case of motor vehicle crashes. The most frequent contributing causes related to crashes involving children included driver＇s inattention while driving, failure to yield right-of-way, driving too fast, wet roads and animals in the road. Based on identified critical factors, general countermeasure ideas to improve children＇s traffic safety were suggested, including age-appropriate and size-appropriate seat belt restraints and having children seated in the rear seat. Parents and children must gain better education regarding these safety measures in order to increase child safety on the road.
