资本市场主体行为有限理性的机理、危害及应对——基于GME轧空事件的思考

2021年1月末,众多散户通过集体买入Game Stop公司股票等手段,对空头机构进行轧空。经过市场双方的不断博弈,最终诸多做空机构被爆仓,对投资者与资本市场产生了一定影响。针对GME轧空事件,以证券投资理论与行为金融理论为基础,以资本市场中的理性行为与非理性行为作为研究视角,将GME轧空事件按照产生、发展、高潮、回落的四个过程进行了分析,探讨了轧空背后所反映出的投资者市场行为,重点研究了非理性行为的形成与作用机理以及所造成的危害,并从理论完善与我国资本市场借鉴和应对的角度得出相关结论与启示。研究表明,GME轧空事件的产生是基于空头非理性的过度做空行为而引发的轧空事件。机构与散户等市场投资主体的理性与有限理性市场行为,最终将影响和决定证券价格,而信息技术的发展,网络媒体对信息的快速传播,加剧了信息对证券价格影响的程度与速度。

做空机制、期权效应与系统性风险的内在机理研究——基于Black Scholes模型的多空对战分析

美国游戏驿站公司(GME)股价呈现过山车式行情,在短短的2个月内,股价暴涨40余倍,随后暴跌60%,股市急涨暴跌反映了美股市场制度背后的做空机制缺陷和轧空操作,引发了世界各国对美国标榜的自由市场和做空机制的质疑。本文在做空机制与期权交易的理论基础上,运用Black Scholes模型,开展散户与华尔街机构的系统性逼空量化分析,并厘清逼空对战与系统性风险的内在关联,包括风险由个股传播至权重市场、券商流动性断裂导致无法清算、限制散户交易等超常规手段打破市场认知、逼空交易波及全球市场等。从货币制度、社交制度、证券市场交易制度等三个方面深入分析了美国散户与机构对立的原因,并根据国内实际,提出了优化我国资本市场良性发展和做空监管思路的政策建议。

高强度易切削非调质钢的研制

苏钢已研制出一种含0.38%～0.45%C、0.30%～0.60%Si、1.20%～1.50%Mn(质量分数)以及适量钒、铌和氮的高强度易切削非调质钢。直径140 mm的圆钢控轧、控冷后,其组织为珠光体和铁素体,力学性能为:R_(el)≥720 MPa,R_m≥950 MPa,A≥20%,Z≥55%,A_(Ku_2)≥60 J,优于相同尺寸的优质调质钢圆钢。

“股票价格”浅谈

在《政治经济学》的实际教学过程中,常常碰到“股票价格”这一难度较大的问题。而这一问题在诸多教材中基本上都采取了尽可能回避的态度(财经类教材大体上也是如此),纵观我国经济建设高速发展的今天,这一问题已成为一个十分敏感的问题。现就此疑难问题简单地谈一下本人的一些粗浅看法。股票价格的运动到底受哪些因素的制约或影响呢?归结起来大体有三大因素的影响,但无论哪一因素怎么变动,最终都直接作用于股票的供给与需求,影响到股票的卖出与买进。

Evolution of microstructure of aluminum alloy hollow shaft in cross wedge rolling without mandrel

During the process of cross wedge rolling of aluminum alloy hollow shaft, the evolution of its microstructure has an important influence on the mechanical properties of the rolled piece. In order to obtain the microstructure evolution law of aluminum alloy hollow shaft in cross wedge rolling without mandrel, a finite element model is constructed through the finite element software Deform-3D. The influences of rolling temperature, sectional shrinkage,spreading angle and forming angle on the average grain size of rolled piece are studied by numerical simulation of microstructure evolution. The cellular automata method reveals the inherent relationship between the process parameters and the evolution of the microstructure, and provides a reference for optimizing the rolling process parameters of aluminum alloy hollow shafts and improving the forming quality. The results show that the average grain size of the rolled piece increases with the increase of the rolling temperature, decreases with the increase of the sectional shrinkage,and decreases first and then increases with the increase of the spreading angle, and changes little with the increase of the forming angle.

Study on Low-Temperature Traction Behavior of a Space Lubricating Oil No.4116

The traction behavior of space lubricating oil No. 4116 was measured and analyzed at various oil inlet temperatures below 0 ℃ and various rolling speeds under normal loads by a test rig simulating the operating conditions of space bearings. A traction coefficient calculation model was presented. The rheological property and rheological parameters of the lubricant at a low oil inlet temperature were analyzed based on the Tevaarwerk-Johnson model. The results showed that the lubricating oil No. 4116 was sensitive to the rolling speed and had lower sensitivity to the normal load. This lubricating oil is more suitable for applications under high speed when it is used below 0 ℃. It behaves as an elastic-plastic fluid operating below 0 ℃. Both the average limiting shear stress and the average elastic shear modulus have a negative correlation with the rolling speed and oil inlet temperature and have a positive correlation with the normal load.

X65高强高韧性管线钢的试制

介绍了唐钢高强高韧性X65管线钢的试制情况。采用光学显微镜和拉伸试验等方法研究了X65管线钢的显微组织、力学性能及冲击韧性。结果表明,试制X65管线钢组织细小、均匀,铁素体为不规则多边形铁素体,晶粒度平均为12.5级。其由于晶粒细小且夹杂物含量低,所以X65管线钢的强度和韧性好,能满足用户的使用要求。