为了理解青藏高原高寒草地生态系统的碳动态变化和环境因子对其的调控关系,分析2年(2002和2003年)的涡度相关数据。结果表明,高寒草地生态系统是"碳汇",2年分别从大气吸收了286.74和284.94 g CO2。相关分析表明,高寒草甸生态...为了理解青藏高原高寒草地生态系统的碳动态变化和环境因子对其的调控关系,分析2年(2002和2003年)的涡度相关数据。结果表明,高寒草地生态系统是"碳汇",2年分别从大气吸收了286.74和284.94 g CO2。相关分析表明,高寒草甸生态系统CO2交换量与日平均气温有十分明显的相关性,而与光量子通量密度和土壤含水量没有明显的相关性。"转折气温",是生态系统光合通化增长速率开始大于生态系统的呼吸增长速率时的气温。通过线性指数模型,发现高寒草甸生态系统的"转折气温"是2.47℃。在降雨和光量子通量密度基本不变,生态系统比较稳定的条件下,如果增温效应发生在气温大于2.47℃,高寒草甸生态系统的"碳汇"功能将得以加强,反之,发生在气温小于2.47℃,"碳汇"功能将被削弱乃至转变为"碳源"。展开更多
基于四川地区1990—2019年的逐日2 m最高、最低温度站点实况数据,对气温转折天气过程进行统计和分析,在此基础上,应用LightGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Machine)算法及NCEP/NCAR(National Center for Environmental Prediction/Nationa...基于四川地区1990—2019年的逐日2 m最高、最低温度站点实况数据,对气温转折天气过程进行统计和分析,在此基础上,应用LightGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Machine)算法及NCEP/NCAR(National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)逐日再分析资料,构建气温转折天气过程变温订正模型。结果表明:(1)出现气温转折过程最多的区域是高原与盆地的边坡过渡区,最少的是盆地;(2)各区域的气温转折过程具有明显的季节差异,均表现为春季最多、冬季最少,且春季的气温转折过程明显多于其他3季;(3)在1990—2019年验证集中,LightGBM订正模型表现较好,准确率为78.64%,平均绝对误差为1.35℃。(4)在2020年的独立样本测试中,LightGBM订正模型的准确率为53.60%,平均绝对误差为2.19℃,整体订正效果优于ECMWF模式(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)、中央台城镇预报指导报(SCMOC)及四川省气象台数值预报客观释用城镇预报指导报(SPCO)的预报。展开更多
In this study,the reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature(EAWT) in 2020/21 and its predictability were investigated.The reversal of monthly EAWT in 2020/21 was characterized by colder temperatures in ear...In this study,the reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature(EAWT) in 2020/21 and its predictability were investigated.The reversal of monthly EAWT in 2020/21 was characterized by colder temperatures in early winter(December 2020 to mid-January 2021) and warmer temperatures in late winter(mid-January to February 2021).Results show that the reversal in the intensity of the Siberian high(SH) also occurred between early and late winter in 2020/21.In early winter,as the Barents-Laptev sea ice in the previous September(i.e., in2020) reached a minimum for the period 1981-2020,the SH was strengthaned via a reduction of the meridional gradient between the Arctic and East Asia.In late winter,as a sudden stratospheric warming occurred on 5 January 2021,the stratospheric polar vortex weakened,with the weakest center shifting to North America in January.Subsequently,the negative Arctic Oscillation-like structure shifted towards North America in the middle and lower troposphere,which weakened the SH in late winter.Furthermore,the predictability of the reversal in EAWT in 2020/21 was validated based on monthly and daily predictions from NCEP-CFSv2(National Centers for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System,version 2).The results showed that the model was unable to reproduce the monthly reversal of EAWT.However,it was able to forecast the reversal date(18 January 2021)of EAWT at lead times of 1-20 days on the daily scale.展开更多
文摘为了理解青藏高原高寒草地生态系统的碳动态变化和环境因子对其的调控关系,分析2年(2002和2003年)的涡度相关数据。结果表明,高寒草地生态系统是"碳汇",2年分别从大气吸收了286.74和284.94 g CO2。相关分析表明,高寒草甸生态系统CO2交换量与日平均气温有十分明显的相关性,而与光量子通量密度和土壤含水量没有明显的相关性。"转折气温",是生态系统光合通化增长速率开始大于生态系统的呼吸增长速率时的气温。通过线性指数模型,发现高寒草甸生态系统的"转折气温"是2.47℃。在降雨和光量子通量密度基本不变,生态系统比较稳定的条件下,如果增温效应发生在气温大于2.47℃,高寒草甸生态系统的"碳汇"功能将得以加强,反之,发生在气温小于2.47℃,"碳汇"功能将被削弱乃至转变为"碳源"。
文摘基于四川地区1990—2019年的逐日2 m最高、最低温度站点实况数据,对气温转折天气过程进行统计和分析,在此基础上,应用LightGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Machine)算法及NCEP/NCAR(National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)逐日再分析资料,构建气温转折天气过程变温订正模型。结果表明:(1)出现气温转折过程最多的区域是高原与盆地的边坡过渡区,最少的是盆地;(2)各区域的气温转折过程具有明显的季节差异,均表现为春季最多、冬季最少,且春季的气温转折过程明显多于其他3季;(3)在1990—2019年验证集中,LightGBM订正模型表现较好,准确率为78.64%,平均绝对误差为1.35℃。(4)在2020年的独立样本测试中,LightGBM订正模型的准确率为53.60%,平均绝对误差为2.19℃,整体订正效果优于ECMWF模式(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)、中央台城镇预报指导报(SCMOC)及四川省气象台数值预报客观释用城镇预报指导报(SPCO)的预报。
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42088101 and 41730964]the Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) [grant number 311021001]。
文摘In this study,the reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature(EAWT) in 2020/21 and its predictability were investigated.The reversal of monthly EAWT in 2020/21 was characterized by colder temperatures in early winter(December 2020 to mid-January 2021) and warmer temperatures in late winter(mid-January to February 2021).Results show that the reversal in the intensity of the Siberian high(SH) also occurred between early and late winter in 2020/21.In early winter,as the Barents-Laptev sea ice in the previous September(i.e., in2020) reached a minimum for the period 1981-2020,the SH was strengthaned via a reduction of the meridional gradient between the Arctic and East Asia.In late winter,as a sudden stratospheric warming occurred on 5 January 2021,the stratospheric polar vortex weakened,with the weakest center shifting to North America in January.Subsequently,the negative Arctic Oscillation-like structure shifted towards North America in the middle and lower troposphere,which weakened the SH in late winter.Furthermore,the predictability of the reversal in EAWT in 2020/21 was validated based on monthly and daily predictions from NCEP-CFSv2(National Centers for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System,version 2).The results showed that the model was unable to reproduce the monthly reversal of EAWT.However,it was able to forecast the reversal date(18 January 2021)of EAWT at lead times of 1-20 days on the daily scale.
