为了研究三江源生态功能区生态约束下畜牧业技术进步偏向,本研究选取2010—2019年三江源生态功能区所辖4个州(海南、黄南、果洛、玉树4个藏族自治州)21个县为样本,采用非期望产出不可分的松弛值测算的模型(slacks based measure, SBM)...为了研究三江源生态功能区生态约束下畜牧业技术进步偏向,本研究选取2010—2019年三江源生态功能区所辖4个州(海南、黄南、果洛、玉树4个藏族自治州)21个县为样本,采用非期望产出不可分的松弛值测算的模型(slacks based measure, SBM)、曼奎斯特指数(Malmquist index, MI)和ArcGIS 10.6软件测评环境规制下生态畜牧业生产效率,分析时空变化趋势及技术进步方向。结果表明:与2010年相比,2019年三江源生态功能区全部牲畜存栏量减少13.83%,但大型牲畜存栏量反而增长14.83%。研究区域生态畜牧业全要素生产效率处于波动状态,区域间差异较大,投入型技术进步对全要素生产效率起抑制作用。纯牧区畜牧业技术进步偏向于节约劳动使用、减少大型牲畜存栏量;半农半牧区技术进步偏向于节约草场投入,存栏结构总体更偏向减少小型牲畜存栏量,均与实际牲畜存栏结构变化相违背。在考虑非期望产出不可分的情况下,投入型技术进步偏向逐渐与各地区资源禀赋不相协调,难以适应快速变化的存栏结构,抑制了生态优先的发展战略。建议以草定畜、分区规划、增加生态补偿;季节调节、良种改良、促进畜草资源空间流动;明晰产权、集聚资源、加强畜牧联合体建设。展开更多
[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method. [Method] The NDVl was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation covera...[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method. [Method] The NDVl was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation coverage changes of the study area in different time period under the GIS platform, with the aim to reveal the spatial distribution rules of the vegetation cover in Eastern Jilin Province during the recent 10 years. The Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were used to predict the vegetation cover change trend in Eastern Jilin Province. [Result] The vegetation cover increased a little, but staying stable in general. The regions with great changes were mainly around the lake and river. The prediction results of Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were consistent with the observed measurement. [Conclusion] This study provided referential basis for the effective protection of the vegetation coverage in mountainous forest, and important reference value for the scientific decision-making on the forest construction planning in Jilin Province as well as in China and sustainable development of social economy.展开更多
基金Supported by the Project of China Geological Survey(1212010911084)~~
文摘[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method. [Method] The NDVl was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation coverage changes of the study area in different time period under the GIS platform, with the aim to reveal the spatial distribution rules of the vegetation cover in Eastern Jilin Province during the recent 10 years. The Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were used to predict the vegetation cover change trend in Eastern Jilin Province. [Result] The vegetation cover increased a little, but staying stable in general. The regions with great changes were mainly around the lake and river. The prediction results of Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were consistent with the observed measurement. [Conclusion] This study provided referential basis for the effective protection of the vegetation coverage in mountainous forest, and important reference value for the scientific decision-making on the forest construction planning in Jilin Province as well as in China and sustainable development of social economy.
