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基于时间序列ARIMA模型的边坡强降雨稳定性预测分析 被引量:2
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作者 胡鑫 《珠江水运》 2024年第4期74-76,共3页
地质条件较差的边坡,在强降雨持续渗透作用下,存在滑坡隐患。本文基于实际工程,首先构建了边坡的有限元模型,并连续不断施加强降雨条件,得到边坡稳定性特征。随后,基于时间序列ARIMA模型,对后续持续强降雨条件下的边坡稳定性进行了预测... 地质条件较差的边坡,在强降雨持续渗透作用下,存在滑坡隐患。本文基于实际工程,首先构建了边坡的有限元模型,并连续不断施加强降雨条件,得到边坡稳定性特征。随后,基于时间序列ARIMA模型,对后续持续强降雨条件下的边坡稳定性进行了预测。结果表明:通过预测模型的预测值与有限元软件的仿真结果进行对比,其边坡安全系数整体趋势近似,表明基于时间序列ARIMA预测模型的预测结果一定程度上能够反映边坡随降雨时间持续自身安全系数的变化。 展开更多
关键词 时间序列 边坡强降雨 稳定性预测 安全系数
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Effects of intense rainfall on stability of infinite terraced slope 被引量:5
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作者 马世国 韩同春 +2 位作者 徐日庆 吴渐 张杰 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第4期1534-1545,共12页
For fully understanding the hydrological dynamics of an infinite terraced slope, the infiltration process was studied by employing the Green and Ampt infiltration model. The limit equilibrium method and the Mohr-Coulo... For fully understanding the hydrological dynamics of an infinite terraced slope, the infiltration process was studied by employing the Green and Ampt infiltration model. The limit equilibrium method and the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion were adopted to derive a stability model for the infinite terraced slope subjected to an intense rainfall. Numerical simulation was performed for verifying its applicability. The results of numerical simulation indicate that a set of stepped wetting fronts are found during infiltration, and the infiltration of terraced slope covered by coarse-textured soils can be approximated as one-dimensional infiltration. The potential sliding surfaces from the numerical method are all parallel to the slope line, and the proposed model and framework can provide an approximate method of estimating how the infiltration affects the stability of an infinite terraced slope. 展开更多
关键词 intense rainfall infiltration infinite terraced slope stability safety factor
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