The present study investigates the role of Kelvin wave propagations along the equatorial Indian Ocean during the 2006-2008 Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD).The 2006 IOD lasted for seven months,developing in May and reaching i...The present study investigates the role of Kelvin wave propagations along the equatorial Indian Ocean during the 2006-2008 Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD).The 2006 IOD lasted for seven months,developing in May and reaching its peak in December,while the 2007 and 2008 IODs were short-lived events,beginning in early May and ending abruptly in September,with much weaker amplitudes.Associated with the above IODs,the impulses of the sea surface height(SSH) anomalies reflect the forcing from an intraseasonal time scale,which was important to the evolution of IODs in 2007 and 2008.At the thermocline depth,dominated by the propagation of Kelvin waves,the warming/cooling temperature signals could reach the surface at a particular time.When the force is strong and the local thermocline condition is favorable,the incoming Kelvin waves dramatically impact the sea surface temperature(SST) in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.In July 2007 and late July 2008,the downwelling Kelvin waves,triggered by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) in the eastern and central equatorial Indian Ocean,suppressed the thermocline in the Sumatra and the Java coast and terminated the IOD,which made those events short-lived and no longer persist into the boreal fall season as the canonical IOD does.展开更多
Large deviations estimates for Poisson processes estimate the logarithm of rare events associated to a Poisson process which has more and more jump which are smaller and smaller. In stochastic analysis, they are valid...Large deviations estimates for Poisson processes estimate the logarithm of rare events associated to a Poisson process which has more and more jump which are smaller and smaller. In stochastic analysis, they are valid on the whole path space. Asoociated to this jump process is a Markov semi-group. We translate in semi group theory the proof of Wentzel-Freidlin for these estimates by translating in semi-group theory some basical tools of stochastic analysis as the exponential martingales of stochastic analysis. These Wentzel-Freidlin estimates （upper-bound） are only true for the semi-group.展开更多
Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a r...Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a rational decision process to supersede decision choices based only on a gut feeling. After assessing probabilities the decision maker can confirm or reverse a gut feeling choice using expected values for each available act and traditional decision theory methodology. A simple example involving a buy now or buy later situation with market uncertainty illustrates the process for typical yes or no decisions.展开更多
In South Africa, the nuclear forensics approach and its functions hosted and managed by Necsa, in support of any nuclear security investigations, start from the incident scene when the nuclear or radioactive material ...In South Africa, the nuclear forensics approach and its functions hosted and managed by Necsa, in support of any nuclear security investigations, start from the incident scene when the nuclear or radioactive material （that is out of regulatory control） is being handled and handed over to Necsa Emergency Control Centre by the South African law enforcement agencies in the presence of NOMS Department official. The main objective of this approach is to increase the credibility status of the chain of custody on the handling of the material during incident （crime） scene management process （for both nuclear forensics and traditional forensic evidence collection） and its transportation from the scene to the suitable storage facility at Necsa. Aspects to be looked into during the response process include interactions between law enforcement agencies, Necsa relevant departments and the National Nuclear Regulator of South Africa. This paper focuses on the entire whole response process and associated prior arrangements, in order to show and provide a set of requirements attached to the material, the scope of critical relevant technical and law enforcement information that to be acquired by all parties involving and participating in the nuclear/radiological incident or event response process before the material is authorized for storage at a suitably qualified Necsa＇s nuclear forensics, which is dedicated storage facility on Pelindaba site.展开更多
An extraordinary rainstorm that occurred in Beijing on 21 July 2012 was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results showed that:(1) The two precipitation phases were based on a combination ...An extraordinary rainstorm that occurred in Beijing on 21 July 2012 was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results showed that:(1) The two precipitation phases were based on a combination of cold cloud processes and warm cloud processes. The accumulated conversion amount and conversion rate of microphysical processes in the warm-area phase were all much larger than those in the cold front phase.(2) 72.6% of rainwater was from the warm-area phase. Rainwater mainly came from the melting of graupel and the melting of snow, while the accretion of cloud water by rain ranked second.(3) The net heating rate with height appeared as an overall warming with two strong heating centers in the lower and middle layers of the troposphere and a minimum heating center around the melting layer. The net heating effect in the warm-area phase was stronger than that in the cold front phase.(4) Warm cloud processes contributed most to latent heat release, and the thermal effect of cold cloud processes on the storm in the cold front phase was enhanced compared to that in the warm-area phase.(5) The melting of graupel and snow contributed most to latent heat absorption, and the effect of the evaporation of rainwater was significantly reduced in the cold front phase.展开更多
Based on previous research work,we present a spectrum deviation method to recognize a foreshock or generalized foreshock in this paper. The criterion to determine whether an event is a foreshock is a wide spectrum for...Based on previous research work,we present a spectrum deviation method to recognize a foreshock or generalized foreshock in this paper. The criterion to determine whether an event is a foreshock is a wide spectrum for an ordinary event,however,a moderate earthquake with foreshock or generalized foreshock has the characteristics of a narrow frequency band,and it deviates to the low frequency. It may be explained by metastable extension in the rupture source or related area of the main shock or regional fragmentation damage and crack nucleation process. The calculation results of two foreshocks,the M_S4. 7 event which occurred before the Yushu M_S7. 1 earthquake on April 14,2010 and the M_S5. 3 event which occurred before the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake on February 12,2014,show that the spectra of foreshocks shift,and they are quite different from the nonforeshock seismic spectrum of equivalent size. Therefore,this result can verify the validity of the spectrum deviation method.展开更多
In this paper,the Gaoyou-Baoying M_S4.9 earthquake was analyzed by the geomagnetic harmonic wave amplitude ratios method. The earthquake was an isolated seismic event,before and after which there were no other earthqu...In this paper,the Gaoyou-Baoying M_S4.9 earthquake was analyzed by the geomagnetic harmonic wave amplitude ratios method. The earthquake was an isolated seismic event,before and after which there were no other earthquakes occurred in this region. The dense distribution of geomagnetic observataries provided an advantage condition for the analysis of characteristics of the geomagnetic harmonic amplitude ratios. The analysis results verify the former knowledge of anomaly characteristics of the geomagnetic harmonic amplitude ratio,that is,the anomalous characteristics of the earthquake mostly appeared during the decline-turning-recovery rising process. The results also show that the change of the anomalies was asynchronous at the observatories close to the epicenter, namely, the anomalous characteristics were different between the H and the D components,as well as between the long and short periods.展开更多
The paper deals with the impact of land use changes on water regime. An assessment was carried out in order to determine the extent to which the main components of the water balance on the experimental catchment Vsemi...The paper deals with the impact of land use changes on water regime. An assessment was carried out in order to determine the extent to which the main components of the water balance on the experimental catchment Vseminka have been influenced by land use changes （region Vsetinske Hills, the Czech Republic）. For this reason, the water balance model WBCM-5 was implemented for the period of 30 years in a daily step, with particular focus on the simulation of the components of direct runoff and of subsurface water recharge. In the selected years of the period 1980-2009, major changes were made in land use and significant fluctuation of rainfall-runoff regimes were observed （e.g. dry year 1992, flood year 1997 and normal year 2009）. After WBCM-5 parameter calibration it was observed that some water balance components can change in relation to substantial land use changes, even up to dozens of percent in a balance-consideration, i.e. in daily, monthly and yearly or decadal values, specifically as far as the components of interception and also of direct runoff and of subsurface water recharge are concerned. However, a different situation appeared during the investigation of significant short-term rainfall-runoff processes. There were about seven real flood events during the same period on the same catchment which were analysed using the KINFIL-2 model （time step 0.5 hr）. Land use change, positive or negative scenarios, were also analysed during this period. As opposed to long-term water balance analyses, only a 10% difference in the hydrograph peak and volume was observed. In summary, the authors have shown that it is always important to distinguish a possible land use change impact on either long-term balance or short-term runoff. Otherwise, as often found in over simplified commentaries on flood events in the mass media, the actual impact of land use changes on water regime may be misunderstood.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,2010CB950300 & 2012CB955603)the National Nature Science Foundation of China(41176024,41176023,& 41149908)
文摘The present study investigates the role of Kelvin wave propagations along the equatorial Indian Ocean during the 2006-2008 Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD).The 2006 IOD lasted for seven months,developing in May and reaching its peak in December,while the 2007 and 2008 IODs were short-lived events,beginning in early May and ending abruptly in September,with much weaker amplitudes.Associated with the above IODs,the impulses of the sea surface height(SSH) anomalies reflect the forcing from an intraseasonal time scale,which was important to the evolution of IODs in 2007 and 2008.At the thermocline depth,dominated by the propagation of Kelvin waves,the warming/cooling temperature signals could reach the surface at a particular time.When the force is strong and the local thermocline condition is favorable,the incoming Kelvin waves dramatically impact the sea surface temperature(SST) in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.In July 2007 and late July 2008,the downwelling Kelvin waves,triggered by the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) in the eastern and central equatorial Indian Ocean,suppressed the thermocline in the Sumatra and the Java coast and terminated the IOD,which made those events short-lived and no longer persist into the boreal fall season as the canonical IOD does.
文摘Large deviations estimates for Poisson processes estimate the logarithm of rare events associated to a Poisson process which has more and more jump which are smaller and smaller. In stochastic analysis, they are valid on the whole path space. Asoociated to this jump process is a Markov semi-group. We translate in semi group theory the proof of Wentzel-Freidlin for these estimates by translating in semi-group theory some basical tools of stochastic analysis as the exponential martingales of stochastic analysis. These Wentzel-Freidlin estimates （upper-bound） are only true for the semi-group.
文摘Assessing probabilities for relevant and sometimes unique events in real-world decision situations can be problematic. This paper elucidates a 2-step process for assigning probabilities to relevant events enabling a rational decision process to supersede decision choices based only on a gut feeling. After assessing probabilities the decision maker can confirm or reverse a gut feeling choice using expected values for each available act and traditional decision theory methodology. A simple example involving a buy now or buy later situation with market uncertainty illustrates the process for typical yes or no decisions.
文摘In South Africa, the nuclear forensics approach and its functions hosted and managed by Necsa, in support of any nuclear security investigations, start from the incident scene when the nuclear or radioactive material （that is out of regulatory control） is being handled and handed over to Necsa Emergency Control Centre by the South African law enforcement agencies in the presence of NOMS Department official. The main objective of this approach is to increase the credibility status of the chain of custody on the handling of the material during incident （crime） scene management process （for both nuclear forensics and traditional forensic evidence collection） and its transportation from the scene to the suitable storage facility at Necsa. Aspects to be looked into during the response process include interactions between law enforcement agencies, Necsa relevant departments and the National Nuclear Regulator of South Africa. This paper focuses on the entire whole response process and associated prior arrangements, in order to show and provide a set of requirements attached to the material, the scope of critical relevant technical and law enforcement information that to be acquired by all parties involving and participating in the nuclear/radiological incident or event response process before the material is authorized for storage at a suitably qualified Necsa＇s nuclear forensics, which is dedicated storage facility on Pelindaba site.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant Nos. 2013CB430105 and 2014CB441403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41205099)+1 种基金Guizhou Province Scientific Research Joint Project (Grant No. G[2013]4001)the Special Scientific Research Project of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201006031)
文摘An extraordinary rainstorm that occurred in Beijing on 21 July 2012 was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results showed that:(1) The two precipitation phases were based on a combination of cold cloud processes and warm cloud processes. The accumulated conversion amount and conversion rate of microphysical processes in the warm-area phase were all much larger than those in the cold front phase.(2) 72.6% of rainwater was from the warm-area phase. Rainwater mainly came from the melting of graupel and the melting of snow, while the accretion of cloud water by rain ranked second.(3) The net heating rate with height appeared as an overall warming with two strong heating centers in the lower and middle layers of the troposphere and a minimum heating center around the melting layer. The net heating effect in the warm-area phase was stronger than that in the cold front phase.(4) Warm cloud processes contributed most to latent heat release, and the thermal effect of cold cloud processes on the storm in the cold front phase was enhanced compared to that in the warm-area phase.(5) The melting of graupel and snow contributed most to latent heat absorption, and the effect of the evaporation of rainwater was significantly reduced in the cold front phase.
基金sponsored by the National Key Technology Support Program of China entitled "Application of Digital Seismic Technology to Mid-and Short-term Prediction of Strong Earthquake"(2012BAK19B02-01)
文摘Based on previous research work,we present a spectrum deviation method to recognize a foreshock or generalized foreshock in this paper. The criterion to determine whether an event is a foreshock is a wide spectrum for an ordinary event,however,a moderate earthquake with foreshock or generalized foreshock has the characteristics of a narrow frequency band,and it deviates to the low frequency. It may be explained by metastable extension in the rupture source or related area of the main shock or regional fragmentation damage and crack nucleation process. The calculation results of two foreshocks,the M_S4. 7 event which occurred before the Yushu M_S7. 1 earthquake on April 14,2010 and the M_S5. 3 event which occurred before the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake on February 12,2014,show that the spectra of foreshocks shift,and they are quite different from the nonforeshock seismic spectrum of equivalent size. Therefore,this result can verify the validity of the spectrum deviation method.
基金funded by the routine task entitled“The Routine Recognition and Tracking of HVDC's Interference in Geomagnetic Observation”of the Technical Management Group of Electromagnetic Discipline,CEA
文摘In this paper,the Gaoyou-Baoying M_S4.9 earthquake was analyzed by the geomagnetic harmonic wave amplitude ratios method. The earthquake was an isolated seismic event,before and after which there were no other earthquakes occurred in this region. The dense distribution of geomagnetic observataries provided an advantage condition for the analysis of characteristics of the geomagnetic harmonic amplitude ratios. The analysis results verify the former knowledge of anomaly characteristics of the geomagnetic harmonic amplitude ratio,that is,the anomalous characteristics of the earthquake mostly appeared during the decline-turning-recovery rising process. The results also show that the change of the anomalies was asynchronous at the observatories close to the epicenter, namely, the anomalous characteristics were different between the H and the D components,as well as between the long and short periods.
文摘The paper deals with the impact of land use changes on water regime. An assessment was carried out in order to determine the extent to which the main components of the water balance on the experimental catchment Vseminka have been influenced by land use changes （region Vsetinske Hills, the Czech Republic）. For this reason, the water balance model WBCM-5 was implemented for the period of 30 years in a daily step, with particular focus on the simulation of the components of direct runoff and of subsurface water recharge. In the selected years of the period 1980-2009, major changes were made in land use and significant fluctuation of rainfall-runoff regimes were observed （e.g. dry year 1992, flood year 1997 and normal year 2009）. After WBCM-5 parameter calibration it was observed that some water balance components can change in relation to substantial land use changes, even up to dozens of percent in a balance-consideration, i.e. in daily, monthly and yearly or decadal values, specifically as far as the components of interception and also of direct runoff and of subsurface water recharge are concerned. However, a different situation appeared during the investigation of significant short-term rainfall-runoff processes. There were about seven real flood events during the same period on the same catchment which were analysed using the KINFIL-2 model （time step 0.5 hr）. Land use change, positive or negative scenarios, were also analysed during this period. As opposed to long-term water balance analyses, only a 10% difference in the hydrograph peak and volume was observed. In summary, the authors have shown that it is always important to distinguish a possible land use change impact on either long-term balance or short-term runoff. Otherwise, as often found in over simplified commentaries on flood events in the mass media, the actual impact of land use changes on water regime may be misunderstood.
