智能化电网的快速建设,增加了电网的不确定性并提高了大面积停电的概率,为此,提出了基于蒙特卡洛和连锁故障停电模型(Monte Carlo and Cascading Failure Blackout Model,MC-CFBM)的停电风险评估方法,以制定相应的停电预防和控制策略。...智能化电网的快速建设,增加了电网的不确定性并提高了大面积停电的概率,为此,提出了基于蒙特卡洛和连锁故障停电模型(Monte Carlo and Cascading Failure Blackout Model,MC-CFBM)的停电风险评估方法,以制定相应的停电预防和控制策略。建立了连锁故障停电模型,包括继保装置的隐性故障模型,基于直流潮流的最小切负荷模型,连锁故行停电模型。在连锁故障停电模型的基础上,建立了MC-CFBM的停电风险评估方法,能够准确的得到短时间停电数据。基于简单随机采样法的MC方法提高了算法的收敛速度。建立了系统风险指标,支路风险指标和N-1风险指标等用于评估停电风险的方法。实验仿真结果验证了所提MC-CFBM收敛速度较快,具有可靠性;建立的停电风险指标能够准确描述停电风险,为停电预防和制定相应的控制策略提供了理论指导。展开更多
A non-cooperative game model based on brittleness entropy is formulated for preventing cascading failure of complex systems.Subsystems of a complex system are mapped to the players of the game.The influence of collaps...A non-cooperative game model based on brittleness entropy is formulated for preventing cascading failure of complex systems.Subsystems of a complex system are mapped to the players of the game.The influence of collapsed subsystems to other subsystems is also taken into account in the definition of payoff function except for their own entropy increase.This influence is named brittleness entropy.Each player has two optional strategies;rational for negative entropy and irrational for negative entropy.The model is designed to identify the players who select an irrational strategy for negative entropy.The players who select the irrational strategy for negative entropy continue to compete for negative entropy after the recovery of ordered state and make other subsystems can' t get enough negative entropy to reduce entropy increase.It leads to cascading failure of the complex system in the end.Genetic algorithm is used to seek the solution of game model,and the simulation result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model.The model provides a new way to prevent cascading failure of complex systems.展开更多
文摘智能化电网的快速建设,增加了电网的不确定性并提高了大面积停电的概率,为此,提出了基于蒙特卡洛和连锁故障停电模型(Monte Carlo and Cascading Failure Blackout Model,MC-CFBM)的停电风险评估方法,以制定相应的停电预防和控制策略。建立了连锁故障停电模型,包括继保装置的隐性故障模型,基于直流潮流的最小切负荷模型,连锁故行停电模型。在连锁故障停电模型的基础上,建立了MC-CFBM的停电风险评估方法,能够准确的得到短时间停电数据。基于简单随机采样法的MC方法提高了算法的收敛速度。建立了系统风险指标,支路风险指标和N-1风险指标等用于评估停电风险的方法。实验仿真结果验证了所提MC-CFBM收敛速度较快,具有可靠性;建立的停电风险指标能够准确描述停电风险,为停电预防和制定相应的控制策略提供了理论指导。
基金Basic Research Foundation from State Administration of Science,Technology and Industry for National Defence,PRC(No.Z192011B001)Science Foundation for Youths of Heilongjiang Province(No.QC2009C87)
文摘A non-cooperative game model based on brittleness entropy is formulated for preventing cascading failure of complex systems.Subsystems of a complex system are mapped to the players of the game.The influence of collapsed subsystems to other subsystems is also taken into account in the definition of payoff function except for their own entropy increase.This influence is named brittleness entropy.Each player has two optional strategies;rational for negative entropy and irrational for negative entropy.The model is designed to identify the players who select an irrational strategy for negative entropy.The players who select the irrational strategy for negative entropy continue to compete for negative entropy after the recovery of ordered state and make other subsystems can' t get enough negative entropy to reduce entropy increase.It leads to cascading failure of the complex system in the end.Genetic algorithm is used to seek the solution of game model,and the simulation result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model.The model provides a new way to prevent cascading failure of complex systems.
