This paper analyzes the characteristics of the destination distribution of trips and proposes a stratified sampling strategy for travel mode choice.The stratified sampling strategy can reduce the size of the alternati...This paper analyzes the characteristics of the destination distribution of trips and proposes a stratified sampling strategy for travel mode choice.The stratified sampling strategy can reduce the size of the alternative set;thus,the computation burden of simulation is decreased.Using the stratified sampling strategy,a combined choice model of the trip mode and destination is developed based on the Bayesian theory.Simulations are carried out to verify the proposed model.The results show that the combined choice model of the trip mode and destination can efficiently simulate travelers' choice behaviors.Furthermore,the forecasting accuracy of the combined choice model is higher than the one of the gravity model.Therefore,the proposed model is a powerful tool with which to analyze travelers' behaviors in selecting the trip mode.展开更多
The effects of socio-demographics, land use characteristics and trip attributes on the commute mode choice are studied with a nested logit (NL) model. Based on the random utility maximum theory, the NL model is form...The effects of socio-demographics, land use characteristics and trip attributes on the commute mode choice are studied with a nested logit (NL) model. Based on the random utility maximum theory, the NL model is formulated. The analysis is carried out in the main area of Nanjing. Direct and cross elasticities are calculated to analyze the effects of travel time and travel cost on the selection of travel mode choice. The results reveal that the non-motorized travel modes are more attractive in the areas with higher housing and employment accessibility and car owners are found to be more likely to commute to work by car. The bus and subway choice probabilities are more sensitive to changes in travel times than to changes in travel costs. In conclusion, a comprehensive public transit system and effective integration of land use and transportation policies help to relieve the traffic congestion levels caused by the increasing urban sprawl.展开更多
This paper aims to provide a decision-making method for the transportation management strategies in guiding the transformation of trip mode choice during planned special events. The Expo 2010 Shanghai is taken as an e...This paper aims to provide a decision-making method for the transportation management strategies in guiding the transformation of trip mode choice during planned special events. The Expo 2010 Shanghai is taken as an example, and a structural equation model is employed to analyze the dynamic mechanism of trip mode choice behavior and the effectiveness of the transportation management measures at different stages. Based on the difference between the objective-oriented stated preference (SP) survey results and the objectives, together with the feedback from the previous stage survey, some adjustments on the transportation management measures are made in the next stage of the planning process until the objectives are eventually achieved. The results indicate that the adjustments on transportation management measures at different stages can effectively raise the transit share to 88.6%. Nonlocal visitors are inclined to choose nonstop modes of transportation and the companion attributes have the most significant effects on the trip mode choices of visitors. The research method is proved to be an effective way to support the decision making process of transportation management measures during planned special events in the future.展开更多
A high-precision identification method for steam turbine rotor crack is presented. By providing me nrst three measured natural frequencies, contours for the specified natural frequency are plotted in the same coordi- ...A high-precision identification method for steam turbine rotor crack is presented. By providing me nrst three measured natural frequencies, contours for the specified natural frequency are plotted in the same coordi- nate, and the intersection of the three curves predicts the crack location and size. The cracked rotor system is mod- eled using B-spline wavelet on the interval (BSWI) finite element method, and a method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Laplace wavelet is implemented to improve the identification precision of the first three measured natural frequencies. Compared with the classical nondestructive testing, the presented method shows its effectiveness and reliability. It is feasible to apply this method to the online health monitoring for rotor structure.展开更多
A case study is presented of a regional development model for valley economies in the mountain areas of Beijing, China. The nature and framework of the valley economy model are described and the development of the mod...A case study is presented of a regional development model for valley economies in the mountain areas of Beijing, China. The nature and framework of the valley economy model are described and the development of the model, which is specific to the mountain areas of Beijing, is analyzed. Five different valley economy models applied in the Beijing mountain areas are compared. The major purpose of the valley economy model is to develop the regional economy, including the selection of appropriate industries, the allocation of industrial space, the establishment of supply chains and the integration of various industries. Pilot experiments using the valley economy model have been conducted in seven counties(districts) in Beijing: Pinggu, Huairou, Changping, Mentougou, and Fangshan districts, and Yanqing and Miyun counties. Five models for developing the Beijing mountain areas have been explored, including: creative cultural industries, characteristic industry clusters, the promotion of large tourist areas, natural scenic tourism and folk cultural tourism. Each model has its own unique features and potential to help in the regional development of mountain areas.展开更多
The discrete choice model is used to estimate the walking access area of rail transit stations while considering the influence of existing competition from other traffic modes. The acceptable walking access area is de...The discrete choice model is used to estimate the walking access area of rail transit stations while considering the influence of existing competition from other traffic modes. The acceptable walking access area is determined according to the willingness of passengers to walk who prefer rail transit compared with bus and automobile. Empirical studies were conducted using the survey data of six stations from the rail transit in Nanjing, China. The results indicate that the rail transit is more preferable compared with bus and private automobile in this case when excluding the influence of individual and environmental factors. It is found that passengers tend to underestimate their willingness to walk. The acceptable walking access area of every rail transit station is different from each other. Suburban stations generally have a larger walking access area than downtown stations. In addition, a better walking environment and a scarcer surrounding traffic environment can also lead to a larger walking area. The model was confirmed to be effective and reasonable according to the model validation. This study can be of benefit to the passenger transportation demand estimation in the location planning and evaluation of rail transit stations.展开更多
The effect of uncertainty about stochastic diffusion model on dynamic portfolio choice of an investor who maximizes utility of terminal portfolio wealth was studied.It applied stochastic control method to obtain the c...The effect of uncertainty about stochastic diffusion model on dynamic portfolio choice of an investor who maximizes utility of terminal portfolio wealth was studied.It applied stochastic control method to obtain the closed-form solution of optimal dynamic portfolio,and used the Bayesian rule to estimate the model parameters to do an empirical study on two different samples of Shanghai Exchange Composite Index.Results show,model uncertainty results in positive or negative hedging demand of portfolio,which depends on investor's attitude toward risk;the effect of model uncertainty is more significant with the increasing of investment horizon,the decreasing of investor's risk-aversion degree,and the decreasing of information;predictability of risky asset return increases its allocation in portfolio,at the same time,the effect of model uncertainty also strengthens.展开更多
This work represents a formalized description of information and communicative interac- tions of individuals on the basis of theory of information images (II). It also demonstrates how important it is to choose the ...This work represents a formalized description of information and communicative interac- tions of individuals on the basis of theory of information images (II). It also demonstrates how important it is to choose the models type adequate to the systems under research. It also introduces an explication of the possibility to create the model of information and communication interactions that can illustrate transmission of information between two and more individuals. Methods and approaches suggested in this paper allow us to compare different levels of the described processes depending on the chosen architecture of the model; the methods and approaches mentioned in the current work can be also used to simulate the processes of distortion and generation of information images while information and communication social interaction. Expansion and addition of informa- tion images theory in terms of transmission of information among individuals enables us to speak about the space of individual II. The existence of such a space and creation of correct formalized model help us to explain a number of characteristic phenomena of human thinking processes. As a result of this research, the authors introduce an equa- tion that describes the spatial and structural evolution of individual II. There is also an example of modeling on the basis of this theory taking into account the results of the experiment (bilingual Stroop test).展开更多
文摘This paper analyzes the characteristics of the destination distribution of trips and proposes a stratified sampling strategy for travel mode choice.The stratified sampling strategy can reduce the size of the alternative set;thus,the computation burden of simulation is decreased.Using the stratified sampling strategy,a combined choice model of the trip mode and destination is developed based on the Bayesian theory.Simulations are carried out to verify the proposed model.The results show that the combined choice model of the trip mode and destination can efficiently simulate travelers' choice behaviors.Furthermore,the forecasting accuracy of the combined choice model is higher than the one of the gravity model.Therefore,the proposed model is a powerful tool with which to analyze travelers' behaviors in selecting the trip mode.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50908051)
文摘The effects of socio-demographics, land use characteristics and trip attributes on the commute mode choice are studied with a nested logit (NL) model. Based on the random utility maximum theory, the NL model is formulated. The analysis is carried out in the main area of Nanjing. Direct and cross elasticities are calculated to analyze the effects of travel time and travel cost on the selection of travel mode choice. The results reveal that the non-motorized travel modes are more attractive in the areas with higher housing and employment accessibility and car owners are found to be more likely to commute to work by car. The bus and subway choice probabilities are more sensitive to changes in travel times than to changes in travel costs. In conclusion, a comprehensive public transit system and effective integration of land use and transportation policies help to relieve the traffic congestion levels caused by the increasing urban sprawl.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51278363)
文摘This paper aims to provide a decision-making method for the transportation management strategies in guiding the transformation of trip mode choice during planned special events. The Expo 2010 Shanghai is taken as an example, and a structural equation model is employed to analyze the dynamic mechanism of trip mode choice behavior and the effectiveness of the transportation management measures at different stages. Based on the difference between the objective-oriented stated preference (SP) survey results and the objectives, together with the feedback from the previous stage survey, some adjustments on the transportation management measures are made in the next stage of the planning process until the objectives are eventually achieved. The results indicate that the adjustments on transportation management measures at different stages can effectively raise the transit share to 88.6%. Nonlocal visitors are inclined to choose nonstop modes of transportation and the companion attributes have the most significant effects on the trip mode choices of visitors. The research method is proved to be an effective way to support the decision making process of transportation management measures during planned special events in the future.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51225501No.51035007)Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University
文摘A high-precision identification method for steam turbine rotor crack is presented. By providing me nrst three measured natural frequencies, contours for the specified natural frequency are plotted in the same coordi- nate, and the intersection of the three curves predicts the crack location and size. The cracked rotor system is mod- eled using B-spline wavelet on the interval (BSWI) finite element method, and a method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Laplace wavelet is implemented to improve the identification precision of the first three measured natural frequencies. Compared with the classical nondestructive testing, the presented method shows its effectiveness and reliability. It is feasible to apply this method to the online health monitoring for rotor structure.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.4120112941125005)+2 种基金the Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12JJ3037)the Hunan Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Foundation of China(Grant No.11JD06)the Hengyang Normal University Youth Foundation in Hunan Province of China(Grant No.11A27)
文摘A case study is presented of a regional development model for valley economies in the mountain areas of Beijing, China. The nature and framework of the valley economy model are described and the development of the model, which is specific to the mountain areas of Beijing, is analyzed. Five different valley economy models applied in the Beijing mountain areas are compared. The major purpose of the valley economy model is to develop the regional economy, including the selection of appropriate industries, the allocation of industrial space, the establishment of supply chains and the integration of various industries. Pilot experiments using the valley economy model have been conducted in seven counties(districts) in Beijing: Pinggu, Huairou, Changping, Mentougou, and Fangshan districts, and Yanqing and Miyun counties. Five models for developing the Beijing mountain areas have been explored, including: creative cultural industries, characteristic industry clusters, the promotion of large tourist areas, natural scenic tourism and folk cultural tourism. Each model has its own unique features and potential to help in the regional development of mountain areas.
基金The Scientific Research Foundation of Graduate School of Southeast University(No.YBJJ1838)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.KYLX16_0270)the Foundation of China Scholarship Council(No.201606090240)
文摘The discrete choice model is used to estimate the walking access area of rail transit stations while considering the influence of existing competition from other traffic modes. The acceptable walking access area is determined according to the willingness of passengers to walk who prefer rail transit compared with bus and automobile. Empirical studies were conducted using the survey data of six stations from the rail transit in Nanjing, China. The results indicate that the rail transit is more preferable compared with bus and private automobile in this case when excluding the influence of individual and environmental factors. It is found that passengers tend to underestimate their willingness to walk. The acceptable walking access area of every rail transit station is different from each other. Suburban stations generally have a larger walking access area than downtown stations. In addition, a better walking environment and a scarcer surrounding traffic environment can also lead to a larger walking area. The model was confirmed to be effective and reasonable according to the model validation. This study can be of benefit to the passenger transportation demand estimation in the location planning and evaluation of rail transit stations.
基金Key program of Natural Science Research of High Education of Anhui Province of China(No.KJ2009A157)
文摘The effect of uncertainty about stochastic diffusion model on dynamic portfolio choice of an investor who maximizes utility of terminal portfolio wealth was studied.It applied stochastic control method to obtain the closed-form solution of optimal dynamic portfolio,and used the Bayesian rule to estimate the model parameters to do an empirical study on two different samples of Shanghai Exchange Composite Index.Results show,model uncertainty results in positive or negative hedging demand of portfolio,which depends on investor's attitude toward risk;the effect of model uncertainty is more significant with the increasing of investment horizon,the decreasing of investor's risk-aversion degree,and the decreasing of information;predictability of risky asset return increases its allocation in portfolio,at the same time,the effect of model uncertainty also strengthens.
基金The theoretical part of the research was performed with support by the Grant of the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 15-18-00047). The experimental part of the research was performed with support by Grants from the Board President of the Russian Federation (Project MK-7165.2015.6).
文摘This work represents a formalized description of information and communicative interac- tions of individuals on the basis of theory of information images (II). It also demonstrates how important it is to choose the models type adequate to the systems under research. It also introduces an explication of the possibility to create the model of information and communication interactions that can illustrate transmission of information between two and more individuals. Methods and approaches suggested in this paper allow us to compare different levels of the described processes depending on the chosen architecture of the model; the methods and approaches mentioned in the current work can be also used to simulate the processes of distortion and generation of information images while information and communication social interaction. Expansion and addition of informa- tion images theory in terms of transmission of information among individuals enables us to speak about the space of individual II. The existence of such a space and creation of correct formalized model help us to explain a number of characteristic phenomena of human thinking processes. As a result of this research, the authors introduce an equa- tion that describes the spatial and structural evolution of individual II. There is also an example of modeling on the basis of this theory taking into account the results of the experiment (bilingual Stroop test).