中断与接续:量化自我构建对生活方式绿色转变的影响机制研究

量化情景在消费者自我构建和绿色生活方式转变过程中的重要性不断增强,本文实证考察量化情景及由此产生的量化自我构建过程对消费者生活方式绿色转变的影响机制。实验一发现,量化情景比非量化情景促使消费者产生更强的生活方式绿色转变意愿;实验二发现,消费者对量化结果的感知不一致和自尊之间的交互作用显著影响消费者对非绿色生活方式的中断意愿。自主需要、能力需要和归属需要在非绿色生活方式中断意愿到绿色生活方式接续意愿的转变过程中产生显著的中介作用。本文结论能够为厂商的绿色产品推广和政府的绿色治理提供具有针对性的政策建议。

Quantitative Simulation of Dynamic Changes in Cultivated Land in Areas of Reclamation and Returning Cultivated Land to Forest or Pastures under RCPs Climate Scenarios

Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.

煤炭价格指数特征及其应用研究——基于中价·新华焦煤价格指数辅助分析系统设计与评价分析

中价·新华焦煤价格指数旨在准确反映产地焦煤价格水平及变动趋势,为炼焦煤市场交易提供科学的价格参考。本文对中价·新华焦煤价格指数的主要特征进行了分析,并从市场温度、来访密度、采供强度、专家态度等维度对价格辅助分析系统的基本架构进行探析,证明其能拓展中价·新华焦煤价格指数的分析维度,量化市场情景,助力煤炭经济发展。

Spatio-temporal Changes in Wildlife Habitat Quality in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from 1980 to 2100 based on the InVEST Model

The Yangtze River(YZR) regions have experienced rapid changes after opening up to economic reforms, and human activities have changed the land cover, ecology, and wildlife habitat quality. However, the specific ways in which those influencing factors changed the habitat quality during different periods remain unknown. This study assessed the wildlife habitat quality of the middle and lower YZR in the past(1980–2018) and in future scenarios(2050, 2100). We analyzed the relationships between habitat quality and various topological social-economic factors, and then mapped and evaluated the changes in habitat quality by using the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST) model. The results show that the slope(R = 0.502, P < 0.01, in 2015), elevation(R = 0.003, P < 0.05, in 2015), population density(R = –0.299, P < 0.01, in 2015), and NDVI(R = 0.366, P < 0.01, in 2015) in the study area were significantly correlated with habitat quality from 2000 to 2015. During the period of 1980–2018, 61.93% of the study area experienced habitat degradation and 38.07% of the study area had improved habitat quality. In the future, the habitat quality of the study area will decline under either the A2 scenario(high level of population density, low environmental technology input, and high traditional energy cost) or the B2 scenario(medium level of population density, medium green technology and lack of cooperation of regional governments). The results also showed that habitat in the lower reaches or north of the YZR had degraded more than in the middle reaches or the south of YZR. Therefore, regional development should put more effort into environmental protection, curb population growth, and encourage green technology innovation. Inter-province cooperation is necessary when dealing with ecological problems. This study can serve as a scientific reference for regional wildlife protection and similar investigations in different areas.