量测不确定性条件下的箱粒子滤波目标跟踪方法

在复杂水下环境中,主动声呐的量测值在距离和方位分辨率上存在较大的不确定性,即一个目标回波的能量可能覆盖声呐距离-方位能量谱的多个相邻位置网格。并且,当环境中混响较强时,上述量测不确定性将引起多个区域性的杂波干扰。为了减小状态空间估计的偏差,基于粒子滤波(PF)的跟踪方法需要大量粒子来近似后验概率密度,跟踪的实时性急剧降低。针对上述问题,该文提出一种基于区间量测的箱粒子滤波跟踪方法(IBPF),对主动声呐量测值进行区间表示,即用一个表示距离和方位区间的箱粒子代替点值量测,用区间表示这种量测不确定性,在提高状态估计稳定性的同时,极大程度地减少了后验概率密度估计所需的粒子数,从而进一步提高计算效率。实验结果表明,所提IBPF与PF相比,能以更高的计算效率获得更优的跟踪性能,对目标的跟踪时间缩短了18.06%,跟踪成功帧数增加了4.29%。

量测不确定下多传感器一致性数据融合算法

针对量测不确定下多传感器信息采集系统中数据有效融合处理,提出一种量测数据一致性融合算法。首先,引入马氏距离实现两传感器量测数据一致性的近似估计;然后,结合模糊理论中隶属度函数的性质定义一种度量局部量测信息提取和利用效率的支持度函数,进而构建综合全局量测数据间相互支持程度的支持度矩阵;最后,通过对支持度矩阵的计算求解各传感器量测数据在评估系统状态估计中的权重,并通过加权融合方式实现对系统状态真值的估计。理论分析和仿真实验验证了算法的有效性。

量测不确定下多传感器交互式多模型自适应滤波算法

针对量测不确定下多传感器多模型混合系统中量测信息的有效利用和融合问题,给出了一种多传感器交互式多模型自适应滤波算法。采用交互式多模型机制实现目标运动模式的确认;通过计算每个传感器的量测似然度完成对于不含扰动传感器量测数据的选取;利用传感器量测数据间统计距离的构建实现对于量测系统中剩余传感器量测数据是否包含扰动影响的判定,并在此基础上实现传感器量测数据的合理选取和融合。新算法量测不确定下扰动对于滤波精度的不利影响。理论分析和仿真实验验证了算法的有效性。

量测不确定的四元数约束CKF姿态估计

针对姿态估计系统在量测不确定和四元数约束下存在发散及估计精度差的缺陷,提出了一种基于不确定量测的四元数约束容积卡尔曼滤波算法(quaternion constrained cubature Kalman filter based on uncertain measurements,UCCKF).该算法克服了约束容积卡尔曼滤波算法的局限性,采用独立的伯努利随机变量来描述量测的不确定性,利用三阶球面-相径容积规则近似计算非线性函数的后验均值和协方差.并针对四元数规范化问题,采用两步投影理论来解决四元数约束限制.仿真结果表明,相比较于约束容积卡尔曼滤波(constrained cubature Kalman filter,CCKF)和无迹混合滤波(unscented mixture filter,UMF),提出的UCCKF算法在量测不确定情况下具有更好的收敛性和更高的估计精度,说明该算法对量测不确定下的非线性姿态估计系统是有效、可行的.

量测不确定条件下多传感器自适应粒子滤波算法

针对量测不确定条件下多传感器量测数据的有效利用问题,提出一种多传感器自适应粒子滤波算法.利用随机采样策略和量测模型转移概率实现当前时刻多传感器量测集合的采样,通过粒子滤波中重采样步骤完成估计状态和量测集合的更新,进而依据重采样后单个传感器量测数目在传感器量测集合中的比重实现当前时刻传感器量测的确认.该算法通过有效量测的合理选择,改善了扰动对滤波精度和计算量的不利影响.理论分析和仿真实验均验证了所提出算法的有效性.

带不确定量测和未知虚警概率的粒子滤波器

为了解决带不确定量测和未知虚警概率的非线性非高斯系统状态估计问题,本文提出了一种新的粒子滤波方法,利用随机不确定量测模型来更新粒子和权值,并基于极大似然准则来辨识未知的虚警概率.本文所提出的带不确定量测和已知虚警概率的粒子滤波方法与现有标准的粒子滤波方法具有几乎一致的计算复杂度,但是更适合用于处理带不确定量测的非线性非高斯系统状态估计问题.此外,在状态转移密度函数被选择为建议密度函数时,本文证明了基于所提出的虚警概率辨识方法的极大似然估计唯一,从而为精确辨识虚警概率提供了理论保证.单变量非平稳增长模型和纯方位跟踪的数值仿真验证了所提出粒子滤波方法的有效性和与现有方法相比的优越性.

基于量测自适应辨识的多传感器数据融合算法

针对量测不确定条件下多传感器量测数据的合理利用和有效融合问题,提出了一种量测不确定下多传感器量测自适应数据融合算法。算法实现中考虑到传感器量测受扰动影响的具体情况,通过单个传感器的量测似然度的求解确认等效量测,并利用传感器量测数据间统计距离的构建完成对等效量测优化,进而实现不含扰动影响传感器量测数据的合理选择和融合。理论分析和仿真实验验证结果表明:新算法不仅有效改善扰动对于滤波精度的不利影响,并且相对于分布式融合方式降低计算复杂度。

不确定量测下发电机动态状态估计性能分析

相量测量单元(PMU)中随机误差不可避免,在实际电网系统中PMU量测数据可能出现延时、重新排序甚至丢失等不确定情况。为准确估计电力系统机电暂态过程中的状态信息,首先建立量测丢失下的发电机动态状态估计模型;然后在某实际电网系统算例中分别采用无迹混合滤波(UMF)、粒子滤波(PF)和所提出的改进粒子滤波(IPF)3种算法对发电机动态状态估计模型进行了仿真试验。仿真结果表明:在不确定量测系统下,改进的IPF算法的滤波性能和抗差性能优于UMF与PF算法,更适用于不确定量测下发电机动态状态估计。

多传感器量测自适应Rao-Blackwellised粒子滤波算法

针对量测不确定下非线性系统状态估计中多传感器量测数据的有效利用和计算复杂度的简化问题,给出了一种多传感器量测自适应Rao-Blackwellised粒子滤波算法。首先,通过随机采样策略和量测模型先验转移概率实现用于评估粒子权重的传感器有效量测集合的采样;其次,利用重采样步骤和概率最大化原则完成对不含扰动影响传感器量测模型的辨识;最终,依据Rao-Blackwellised粒子滤波中非线性状态分量和线性状态分量的独立求解方式实现当前时刻系统的状态估计。理论分析和仿真实验结果验证了算法的可行性和有效性。

PMU准实时数据对主动配电网抗差估计的影响

由于相量测量单元(PMU)因成本问题无法在配电网中大规模配置,且不同设备向主站传输数据时存在客观的通信延迟、带宽限制等因素,因此状态估计器输入端存在不良数据。提出一种基于同步相量量测的主动配电网抗差估计方法,并提出以虚拟PMU量测模型补充大量的高精度冗余数据。将数据采集与监视控制(SCADA)量测系统、PMU量测和虚拟PMU量测构成的混合量测系统作为状态估计的输入端。考虑网络和量测数据不确定度对抗差M估计算法进行改进,避免了传统加权最小二乘估计中删除坏数据的残差判断和迭代过程,降低了估计耗时,提高了状态估计的可靠性和抗差性能。改进IEEE 14和IEEE 33节点配电网算例的仿真分析,验证了所提方法的有效性和普适性。

基于自适应粒子群优化的代价评估Marginalized粒子滤波

针对量测受扰动情况下粒子重要性权重的精确度量和粒子的有效采样问题,提出了一种基于自适应粒子群优化的代价评估Marginalized粒子滤波。首先,在Marginalized粒子滤波框架下,通过引入代价函数和风险函数,实现了粒子重要性权重评价过程中对最新量测信息的合理利用,以降低传统的依据重要性权重度量方式中对于噪声先验信息的依赖。其次,通过对粒子分布特征信息的提取和利用,构建了粒子极限速度设定的自适应选取策略,给出了一种自适应粒子群优化方法。在此基础上,结合粒子群优化中群体优化机理来提升采样粒子对被估计状态的逼近程度,进而改善重采样后粒子的多样性。理论分析和仿真实验验证了算法的有效性。

Research into Uncertainty in Measurement of Seawater Chemical Oxygen Demand by Potassium Iodide-Alkaline Potassium Permanganate Determination Method

Using the glucose and L-glutamic-acid to prepare the standard substance according to the ratio of 1：1, and the artificial seawater and the standard substance to prepare a series of standard solutions, the distribution pattern of uncertainty in measurement of seawater COD is obtained based on the measured results of the series of standard solutions by the potassium iodide-alkaline potassium permanganate determination method. The distribution pattern is as follows： Uncertainty in measurement is big and not constant at the high end, but small and constant at the low end.

水下复杂环境下基于SINS/USBL/DVL多源信息融合的组合导航算法

针对复杂水下声场环境下高精度、长航时导航与定位的需求,构建了捷联惯性导航系统(SINS)/超短基线(USBL)相对测量信息的观测方程和SINS/声学多普勒测速仪(DVL)的观测方程,提出了一种融合SINS/USBL/DVL多源信息的组合定位算法。为解决声学量测信息不确定引起的导航性能下降的问题,充分考虑水声野值所导致的厚尾噪声特性,利用学生t分布推导了基于状态估计的鲁棒自适应滤波算法,提高了水下航行器组合定位的精度和鲁棒性。通过海上试验验证了所提算法的有效性和优越性。

Passive target tracking with intermittent measurement based on random finite set

In the tracking problem for the maritime radiation source by a passive sensor,there are three main difficulties,i.e.,the poor observability of the radiation source,the detection uncertainty(false and missed detections)and the uncertainty of the target appearing/disappearing in the field of view.These difficulties can make the establishment or maintenance of the radiation source target track invalid.By incorporating the elevation information of the passive sensor into the automatic bearings-only tracking(BOT)and consolidating these uncertainties under the framework of random finite set(RFS),a novel approach for tracking maritime radiation source target with intermittent measurement was proposed.Under the RFS framework,the target state was represented as a set that can take on either an empty set or a singleton; meanwhile,the measurement uncertainty was modeled as a Bernoulli random finite set.Moreover,the elevation information of the sensor platform was introduced to ensure observability of passive measurements and obtain the unique target localization.Simulation experiments verify the validity of the proposed approach for tracking maritime radiation source and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach in comparison with the traditional integrated probabilistic data association(IPDA)method.The tracking performance under different conditions,particularly involving different existence probabilities and different appearance durations of the target,indicates that the method to solve our problem is robust and effective.

Comparison of GUF and Monte Carlo methods to evaluate task-specific uncertainty in laser tracker measurement

Measurement uncertainty plays an important role in laser tracking measurement analyses. In the present work, the guides to the expression of uncertainty in measurement(GUM) uncertainty framework(GUF) and its supplement, the Monte Carlo method, were used to estimate the uncertainty of task-specific laser tracker measurements. First, the sources of error in laser tracker measurement were analyzed in detail, including instruments, measuring network fusion, measurement strategies, measurement process factors(such as the operator), measurement environment, and task-specific data processing. Second, the GUM and Monte Carlo methods and their application to laser tracker measurement were presented. Finally, a case study involving the uncertainty estimation of a cylindricity measurement process using the GUF and Monte Carlo methods was illustrated. The expanded uncertainty results(at 95% confidence levels) obtained with the Monte Carlo method are 0.069 mm(least-squares criterion) and 0.062 mm(minimum zone criterion), respectively, while with the GUM uncertainty framework, none but the result of least-squares criterion can be got, which is 0.071 mm. Thus, the GUM uncertainty framework slightly underestimates the overall uncertainty by 10%. The results demonstrate that the two methods have different characteristics in task-specific uncertainty evaluations of laser tracker measurements. The results indicate that the Monte Carlo method is a practical tool for applying the principle of propagation of distributions and does not depend on the assumptions and limitations required by the law of propagation of uncertainties(GUF). These features of the Monte Carlo method reduce the risk of an unreliable measurement of uncertainty estimation, particularly in cases of complicated measurement models, without the need to evaluate partial derivatives. In addition, the impact of sampling strategy and evaluation method on the uncertainty of the measurement results can also be taken into account with Monte Carlo method, which plays a guiding role in measurement planning.

Change in Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5

The changes in a selection of extreme climate indices(maximum of daily maximum temperature(TXx),minimum of daily minimum temperature(TNn),annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation(very wet days,R95p),and the maximum number of consecutive days with less than 1 mm of precipitation(consecutive dry days,CDD))were projected using multi-model results from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in the early,middle,and latter parts of the 21st century under different Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emissions scenarios.The results suggest that TXx and TNn will increase in the future and,moreover,the increases of TNn under all RCPs are larger than those of TXx.R95p is projected to increase and CDD to decrease significantly.The changes in TXx,TNn,R95p,and CDD in eight sub-regions of China are different in the three periods of the 21st century,and the ranges of change for the four indices under the higher emissions scenario are projected to be larger than those under the lower emissions scenario.The multi-model simulations show remarkable consistency in their projection of the extreme temperature indices,but poor consistency with respect to the extreme precipitation indices.More substantial inconsistency is found in those regions where high and low temperatures are likely to happen for TXx and TNn,respectively.For extreme precipitation events(R95p),greater uncertainty appears in most of the southern regions,while for drought events(CDD)it appears in the basins of Xinjiang.The uncertainty in the future changes of the extreme climate indices increases with the increasing severity of the emissions scenario.

An Approach to Reasoning Topological Relations Between Areal Objects Under Randomness

This paper describes the geometric and statistical properties of areal object under randomness. In order to describe formally such a uncertain topological relation, a new formal model (i.e. 4ID model) is proposed. On the basis of this, the effects of positional uncertainty on topological relations between areal objects are investigated in detail. Some possibility functions for the determination of relations are constructed based on the assumption that randomness of point location complies with a normal distribution, and the concept of uncertain sets of topological relations under randomness is introduced.

Uncertainty Calculation of Roundness Assessment by Automatic Differentiation in Coordinate Metrology

Reomtly, Coordinate bieasuring Machines （CMMs） are widely used to measure roundness errors. Roundness is calculated from a large number of points collected from the profiles of the parts. According to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measta- meat （GUM）, all measurement results must have a stated uncertainty associated the titan. However, no CMMs give the uncertainty value of the roundness, because no suitable measrement uncertainty calculation procedure exists. In the case of roundness raeasurement in coordinate metrology, this paper suggests the algorithms for the calculation of the measurement uncertainty of the roudness deviation based on the two mainly used association criteria, LSC and MZC. The calculation of the sensitivity coefficients for the uncertainty calculatiion can be done by autnatic differentiation, in order to avoid introducing additional emars by the traditional difference quotient approxima- tions. The proposed methods are exact and need input data only as the nrasured coordinates of the data points and their associated un- certainties.

Uncertainties of ＂in v/vo＂ Dosimetry Using Semiconductors

The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the uncertainties of in vivo dosimetry measured with diode detectors for conformal radiation therapy techniques in order to define appropriate tolerance levels for pelvis and breast treatment in MEIH （Middle East Institute of Health）. The present work is carried out on 30-472 and 30-473 diode detectors irradiated by 4 and 15MV photon beams of a medical linear accelerator Synergy from ELEKTA. Dose computation is performed with Pinnacle 7.4 k treatment planning system. First, an estimation of the uncertainties in a simple geometric case, using a water-equivalent solid phantom is done. Secondly, each treatment parameter such as field size, beam angle, beam modifiers and source-skin distance is evaluated in order to simulate the conformal radiation treatments used in the present institution for the main anatomical sites. Interpretation of entrance dose in-vivo measurements requires the determination of appropriate tolerance levels. Indeed, the authors found that the 5% action level proposed in the literature underestimates the uncertainties in the treatment process. A method for the evaluation of tolerance/action levels related to the different anatomical sites is developed. By the end of the present study the authors have developed an integrated monitoring system that offers accurate information about the dose received by patients.

长航迹稳定跟踪的雷达功率分配算法

分布式组网雷达系统在处理跟踪任务时,低信噪比会导致目标检测概率小于1,进而可能导致目标航迹中断。为此,提出了一种长航迹稳定跟踪的分布式组网雷达功率分配算法,通过对雷达系统功率资源的优化配置,同时保证了航迹连续性与良好的系统跟踪性能。首先建立了分布式雷达回波信号及量测模型,然后推导了不确定性量测下的贝叶斯克拉美罗界(BCRLB),进而建立了功率分配问题数学模型。该优化问题中包含复杂非凸约束,为了对其进行高效求解,最后提出了一种基于凸优化的自约束功率分配(SCPA)算法。仿真结果表明,所提SCPA算法可以保证跟踪全阶段所有目标航迹不中断,并保持良好的跟踪性能。