In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in Chin...In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.展开更多
How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2 emissions has been an academic focus in China recently. The factors influencing CO2 emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target. Firstly, three influenti...How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2 emissions has been an academic focus in China recently. The factors influencing CO2 emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target. Firstly, three influential factors, the energy consumption, the proportion of tertiary industry in gross domestic product （GDP）, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade, are carefully selected, since all of them have closer grey relation with China＇s COz emissions compared with others when the grey relational analysis （GRA） method is applied. The study highlights co-integration relation of these four variables using the co-integration analysis method. And then a long-term co-integration equation and a short-term error correction model of China＇s CO2 emissions are devel- oped. Finally, the comparison is exerted between the forecast value and the actual value of China＇s CO2 emissions based on error correction model. The results and the relevant statistics tests show that the pro- posed model has better explanation capability and credibility.展开更多
In this paper,the structure of systematic and random errors in marine survey net are discussed in detail and the adjustment method for observations of marine survey net is studied,in which the rank_defect characterist...In this paper,the structure of systematic and random errors in marine survey net are discussed in detail and the adjustment method for observations of marine survey net is studied,in which the rank_defect characteristic is discovered first up to now.On the basis of the survey_line systematic error model,the formulae of the rank_defect adjustment model are deduced according to modern adjustment theory.An example of calculations with really observed data is carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of this adjustment model.Moreover,it is proved that the semi_systematic error correction method used at present in marine gravimetry in China is a special case of the adjustment model presented in this paper.展开更多
Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Polan...Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is studied. As the cointegration relationship among exchange rate, output, and the monetary fundamentals （money supply and interest rate） is found, vector autoregressions （VAR）/vector error-correction （VEC） and two-stage least squares （2SLS） error-correction models are used in this context, since both approaches allow estimating short-run correlations between exchange rates and fundamentals while taking into account the existent long-run exchange rate constraints. Based on the quarterly data for the period of 1998-2012, it is found that for all countries, an increase in the money supply, domestic output slowdown, or stronger growth abroad are factors behind a nominal exchange rate depreciation, just as predicted by the monetary model of exchange rate. However, the effects of domestic-foreign interest rate differential are quite heterogeneous, being in line with theoretical predictions of a standard monetary model for Poland only. According to the decomposition of variance, money supply and interest rates account for 30%-46% of the exchange rate variation in the Czech Republic, from 10% to 14% in Hungary, and from 23% to 42% in Poland.展开更多
文摘In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41101569)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(2011M500965)+5 种基金the Jiangsu Funds of Social Science(11EYC023)the Doctoral Discipline New Teachers Fund(20110095120002)the Jiangsu Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(1102088C)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JGJ110763)the Talent Introduction Funds of China University of Mining and Technologythe Sail Plan Funds for Young Teachers of China University of Mining and Technology~~
文摘How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2 emissions has been an academic focus in China recently. The factors influencing CO2 emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target. Firstly, three influential factors, the energy consumption, the proportion of tertiary industry in gross domestic product （GDP）, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade, are carefully selected, since all of them have closer grey relation with China＇s COz emissions compared with others when the grey relational analysis （GRA） method is applied. The study highlights co-integration relation of these four variables using the co-integration analysis method. And then a long-term co-integration equation and a short-term error correction model of China＇s CO2 emissions are devel- oped. Finally, the comparison is exerted between the forecast value and the actual value of China＇s CO2 emissions based on error correction model. The results and the relevant statistics tests show that the pro- posed model has better explanation capability and credibility.
文摘In this paper,the structure of systematic and random errors in marine survey net are discussed in detail and the adjustment method for observations of marine survey net is studied,in which the rank_defect characteristic is discovered first up to now.On the basis of the survey_line systematic error model,the formulae of the rank_defect adjustment model are deduced according to modern adjustment theory.An example of calculations with really observed data is carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of this adjustment model.Moreover,it is proved that the semi_systematic error correction method used at present in marine gravimetry in China is a special case of the adjustment model presented in this paper.
文摘Using a monetary model of exchange rate determination that suggests a strong link between the nominal exchange rate and a set of monetary fundamentals, exchange rate dynamics for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is studied. As the cointegration relationship among exchange rate, output, and the monetary fundamentals （money supply and interest rate） is found, vector autoregressions （VAR）/vector error-correction （VEC） and two-stage least squares （2SLS） error-correction models are used in this context, since both approaches allow estimating short-run correlations between exchange rates and fundamentals while taking into account the existent long-run exchange rate constraints. Based on the quarterly data for the period of 1998-2012, it is found that for all countries, an increase in the money supply, domestic output slowdown, or stronger growth abroad are factors behind a nominal exchange rate depreciation, just as predicted by the monetary model of exchange rate. However, the effects of domestic-foreign interest rate differential are quite heterogeneous, being in line with theoretical predictions of a standard monetary model for Poland only. According to the decomposition of variance, money supply and interest rates account for 30%-46% of the exchange rate variation in the Czech Republic, from 10% to 14% in Hungary, and from 23% to 42% in Poland.
