宏观经济金融风险预警指标体系构建

随着国内外经济的发展和复杂化趋势,宏观经济金融风险预警指标体系的构建也愈加重要。宏观经济下的金融风险预警指标实际上是根据大数据下国内外金融风险变化趋势,对此风险进行预警指标评判其强弱程度,并发出预警信号及提前布控相关措施,以达到风险最小化。本文通过对宏观经济运行重要性的分析,结合大数据下国际经济金融环境下预警指标体系构建的基本原则,进一步指出金融风险预警指标体系的构建和预警值的确立,总结出金融风险预警指标体系构建的发展前景,以供参考。

宏观杠杆率冲击下的中国系统性金融风险的演化

宏观杠杆率冲击下,各类价格的波动反映了各部门系统性金融风险的演化。以2000—2016年中国宏观经济数据,构建"金融风险价格指标体系",分析我国杠杆率上升对系统性金融风险演化的影响,结果表明:宏观杠杆率上升后,金融风险累积阶段各类价格的反应程度强于金融风险释放时期;房地产价格波动领先于实体经济价格,汇率波动领先于金融资产价格,且房地产价格波动与金融资产价格具有交替性。在当前我国杠杆率不断攀升的背景下,为防范金融风险、维护金融稳定,短期内应关注外汇市场风险和金融市场风险,长期内房地产价格上涨累积的金融风险应是重点关注的领域,且房地产价格波动可作为实体经济风险的领先指标,产出价格和房地产价格可以结合起来作为宏观经济政策盯住的目标。

金融系统风险预警方法研究——基于CNN的卷积神经网络模型

金融风险影响实体经济发展,甚至可能引发金融危机,加强我国金融系统风险预警研究具有重要意义。研究根据金融系统性原则设计了一套金融系统风险指标体系,并基于Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)卷积神经网络构建了一种金融系统风险预警模型。实验结果表明,与K-Nearest Neighbor(KNN)、Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)、Back Propagation Neural Networks(BPNN)神经网络模型相比,CNN卷积神经网络模型预警准确率高、性能优,是一种更有效的金融系统风险预警方法。

日本金融活动指数编制经验及启示

有效的金融预警指标对迅速判断金融活动情况并对潜在危机采取预防措施至关重要。本文介绍了日本金融活动指数的特点和编制修订经验,并与我国金融风险预警指标体系进行了对比,从中得出了改进和完善我国中央银行金融风险预警指标的若干建议。

The Impact of Foreign Bank Strategies on the Behavior and Performance of Czech and Slovak Banks in the Financial Crisis

In this paper, the authors analyze the impact of the specific ownership structure of the banking sector in Czech and Slovakia on the performance and applied strategies of particular banks during times of crisis. Did the multinational banks pursue a coherent regional strategy to cope with the risks resulting from the crisis, or did they focus on finding local solutions？ The aim of this paper is to find answers to these questions. A case study is going to be used as a basic research method. Two members （Slovak and Czech） of four multinational banking groups are examined in the crisis year 2009, whereby both a qualitative analysis of the annual reports regarding strategic business or risk management decisions and a comparative quantitative analysis of selected financial data and risk indicators are employed. The authors have found that Czech and Slovak banks generally tried to follow the main strategic directions given by their parent banks during the financial crisis. However, particular financial results and risk profiles of respective subsidiaries of multinational banks still differ because of market factors specific to the different countries in which the subsidiaries are located.

Identification and prevention research at the present stage of our corporate financial risk

Corporate finance activities recur throughout the entire process of production and operation. The financial risk is a signal, which can fully reflect the company＇ s consolidated operating conditions. Therefore it requires business owners to conduct regular financial analysis, establish risk awareness, establish effective risk precautionary handling mechanism, strengthen financial risk control, prevent financial crises, establish early warning indicator system, and make proper financial risk decisions. Firstly, a correct understanding of the financial risk from the start, its meaning, characteristics, and so do the reasons for the formation of the exposition clear what financial risks ; Secondly, the financial risk of the formation of a variety of reasons were analyzed.

Missing Dollars： Significant Statistical Omissions of Global Monetary Aggregates

The choice of liquidity indicators is a key issue in global liquidity management. Money supply statistics such as M2 are no longer able to reflect the true scale of global liquidity due to the effect of financial globalization. External bank liabilities, as an important indicator to measure global liquidity conditions, are omitted by many countries in their broad money statistics. Given that financial institutions＇ external liabilities serve as a major source of fiscal shock as well as an important cause for the accumulation of monetary risk, it is imperative to include these external liabilities into the global liquidity indicator system.