基于地理视角的交通事故多发点鉴别分析模型

为了对交通事故多发情况进行全面评价并建立预警机制,考虑城市道路交通系统的地理视角特点,综合交通事故多发点鉴别分析方法,研究了事故多发点分析模型。首先明确被分析道路交通系统的内涵和层次结构,针对交通系统的点、线、面不同层次确立基本评价指标体系,集成常规统计法、矩阵分析法和改进的质量控制法等构建事故多发点鉴别分析模型,并研究了参数的选取及分析结果的输出形式,最后对某地9条道路的事故多发情况进行了分析。分析结果表明:道路4为事故多发道路,道路3具有最高的事故次数和当量事故次数,道路5具有最高的事故率,经综合评价,确定事故多发道路为道路3、4、5,因此,该模型可以对道路交通事故多发点进行多层面鉴别分析。

Comprehensive evaluation weight-variable identification model of top coal caving effect and its application

Based on the theory of attribute identification, a weight-variable identification model was put forward on top coal caving effect in fully mechanized top coal caving face. Contribution value of all kinds of evaluation factor of the caving coal and waste were used to determine weight coefficient. And then comprehensively estimated it by the given credible degree value. This kind of method can not only classify for attribute identification, but also can classify it into sub-classification according to comprehensive score compositor that of the same attribute. The comprehensive estimate result of plane and solid caving experiments shows that the result is true, credible, simple and that is not only one of the effective method of theory study, but also can be regarded as a quantitative examine method of the top coal caving effect in scene.