长期危机时代背景下俄罗斯“Z世代”社交媒体消费与政策因应

“Z世代”在数字时代成长,其性格和世界观都受到数字平台的塑造。其中,社交平台作为“Z世代”媒体消费的主要对象正在深刻影响“Z世代”对政治生活的态度。俄罗斯“Z世代”表现出与其前辈差异较大的媒体消费习惯,不同于其前辈以电视作为主要信息来源,俄罗斯“Z世代”在俄乌冲突前就已经以西方社交平台作为信息来源,这深刻影响了这一代对于欧美国家好感度、离开俄罗斯移民的态度。作为俄罗斯未来主要选民群体的“Z世代”思想自然受到了俄罗斯高层的重视,为了顺应“Z世代”的特殊性,俄罗斯政府正在调整过去保守的社交平台政策,推动本土社交平台“进口替代”,并在长期危机时代背景下重新探索与俄罗斯“Z世代”的相处模式。

融资与可持续增长视角下的企业财务危机中长期预警模型

本文从企业长期偏离可持续增长率的角度界定财务危机,引入直接融资变量和间接融资变量,利用Fisher判别分析逐步判别的方法,建立了财务危机判别分析模型,并采用交互检验和回代检验的方法进行模型检验。研究结果表明,可持续增长率的四个驱动因素可以概括财务危机发生的原因,融资安排是导致企业财务危机的主要原因,融资与可持续增长视角下的企业财务危机预警模型具有更早的预测提前期和更好的判别准确率,适用于企业财务危机中长期预警。

Construction and Analysis of Common Foreign Trade Cycle Based on MS-VAR:An Empirical Study of Global Experience

This paper proves the co-movement of foreign trade in different countries or areas which belong to ten economic regions by MS-VAR model.The studies show that trade crisis lags behind economic crisis and spreads from the core of the economic crisis to its periphery which is closely-related with it.The trade crisis corresponding to the US subprime crisis spreads faster than before,which has struck worldwide foreign trade.In order to get the main factors affecting trade crisis,the authors construct composite indices which are proxies of economic growth and price levels of internal and external regions.The results of logistic and linear panel models show that economic growth affects more to trade cycle than price level.The results of panel models with dummy variable of trade crisis show that the outside economic growth do bad to the recovery of internal foreign trade during trade crisis corresponding to Mexican peso crisis,the Asian financial crisis and the Russian debt crisis,while the opposite is true during the internet bubble burst and the US subprime crisis.