从长波周期角度分析黄金价格走势及未来变化

黄金是重要的贵金属,关系国家金融稳定。文章基于1945年以来黄金价格走势,研究黄金价格长波周期运行规律。以1973—2001年长达28年的黄金周期为例,分析黄金价格长周期运行特点,将一个周期划分为上升、波动、稳定和下降四个阶段。通过研究美元币值、通货膨胀、经济增长三大因素的长期变化对黄金价格走势的影响,探讨美元指数、通货膨胀率、康德拉季耶夫周期与黄金长波周期运行的内在联系。以此为基础,对2002年以来启动的新一轮黄金长波周期进行分析。

基于长波经济周期的战略资产配置及实证分析

本文对现有资产配置理论框架进行了回顾与反思,指出了资产回报率的长周期性波动意味着战略资产配置虽然可以跨越短周期,但仍将受到长周期的影响,从而提出了基于长波经济周期的资产配置,并通过实证检验表明了其可以有效改善组合的回报率和夏普比率。

21世纪上半叶信息科学技术展望

文章论述了科学技术发展的长波周期规律,重点讨论了推动信息科学技术发展的强劲需求和20年内现有信息技术的改进将遇到的难以逾越的障碍,并预见21世纪上半叶有望兴起一场以网络科学、交叉学科、计算思维和数据知识化为主要方向的信息科学革命。

应对滞胀:从制衡分利集团到社会全面进步

在长波周期中,主流科技产品社会渗透率提升之后必然面临市场约束。广泛存在的分利集团阻碍了市场的自动调节,导致滞胀现象更加严重。改革开放以来,分利集团在中国经济运行中的影响力越来越大。在全球性经济不景气的背景下,分利集团加剧了中国经济滞胀恶化的风险。具体表现为,分利集团利用扩张性和紧缩性调控政策,加剧资源的错误配置,增加生产成本,降低生产效率,导致供给恶化和流动性过剩并存。应对滞胀的长期选择是制衡分利集团,激发社会活力,推进全面进步。

Localized Structures on Periodic Background Wave of （2＋1）-Dimensional Boiti-Leon-Pempinelli System via an Object Reduction

In this paper, we present an object reduction for nonlinear partial differential equations. As a concrete example of its applications in physical problems, this method is applied to the （2＋1）-dimensional Boiti-Leon-Pempinelli system, which has the extensive physics background, and an abundance of exact solutions is derived from some reduction equations. Based on the derived solutions, the localized structures under the periodic wave background are obtained.

Multi-Time Scale Analysis of Runoff at the Yangtze Estuary Based on the Morlet Wavelet Transform Method

Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that:1) Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2) In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3) It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.

Rational Form Solitary Wave Solutions and Doubly Periodic Wave Solutions to （1＋1）-Dimensional Dispersive Long Wave Equation

In this work we devise an algebraic method to uniformly construct rational form solitary wave solutions and Jacobi and Weierstrass doubly periodic wave solutions of physical interest for nonlinear evolution equations. With the aid of symbolic computation, we apply the proposed method to solving the (1+1)-dimensional dispersive long wave equation and explicitly construct a series of exact solutions which include the rational form solitary wave solutions and elliptic doubly periodic wave solutions as special cases.

Dynamics of Periodic Waves in Bose-Einstein Condensate with Time-Dependent Atomic Scattering Length

Evolution of periodic waves and solitary waves in Bose-Einstein condensates （BECs） with time-dependent atomic scattering length in an expulsive parabolic potential is studied. Based on the mapping deformation method, we successfully obtain periodic wave solutions and solitary wave solutions, including the bright and dark soliton solutions.The results in this paper include some in the literatures [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94 （2005） 050402 and Chin. Phys. Left. 22 （2005） 1855].

Equivalent Response Estimation of Structural Systems Subjected to Long-Period Ground Motion

Long-period ground motion has become an important consideration because of the increasing number of large and long-period structures.Therefore,a thorough investigation on the formation and characteristics of longperiod ground motion is desirable for engineering applications.In this work,an analytical study is performed to examine the effect of several parameters and the combining mode for equivalent harmonic components on the dynamic response of systems.The results of the work show that the harmonic components in equivalent ground motion are evidently influenced by the intensity rise time,duration,phase and combining mode.Moreover,the long-period ground motions are simplified and simulated by separate harmonic components through proper combination.The findings of the work are believed to be useful in the selection of input ground motion in structural seismic analysis.

A Generalized Extended F-Expansion Method and Its Application in （2＋1）-Dimensional Dispersive Long Wave Equation

A new generalized extended F-expansion method is presented for finding periodic wave solutions of nonlinear evolution equations in mathematical physics. As an application of this method, we study the （2＋1）-dimensional dispersive long wave equation. With the aid of computerized symbolic computation, a number of doubly periodic wave solutions expressed by various Jacobi elliptic functions are obtained. In the limit cases, the solitary wave solutions are derived as well.

Using Long-Period Body Wave to Inverse Moment Tensors of the M_S6.8 Jiashi,Xinjiang Earthquake in 2003 and the Moderate and Small Earthquakes before and after It

An M_S6.8 strong earthquake took place in Jiashi,Xinjiang on February 24 of 2003.The digital wave form data recorded in Kashi and Wushi stations are selected to inverse the moment tensor solutions for the strong earthquake and the moderate and small earthquakes before and after it(108 earthquakes in 2001～2004).67 focal mechanism solutions have been calculated,and the results agree with those from Harvard University and USGS.The analysis reveals that before the strong earthquake,the moderate and small earthquake distribution was dispersed,and after the event the distribution was mainly concentrated around the strong earthquake.Before the strong earthquake,the seismic faults of the mid and small events had the character of strike-slip and normal faulting,and after the event,they exhibit strike-slip and thrust faulting.The region is dominated by near-NS horizontal compression from the southern block after the strong earthquake.

Development of a Seismometer-Type Absolute Displacement Sensor Aimed at Detecting Earthquake Waves with a Large Magnitude and Long Period

This paper proposes a novel seismometer-type absolute displacement sensor aimed at detecting earthquake waves with a large magnitude and long period. However, since the measuring range of the displacement sensor is higher than its natural frequency, it is difficult to detect low frequency vibrations below 1 Hz using a conventional a seismic-type displacement sensor. In order to provide an absolute displacement detection which is capable of lowering the natural frequency and enlarging the detectable amplitude without causing structural defects, the relative signals of displacement, velocity, and acceleration between a detected object and the auxiliary mass of the sensor are fed back into the sensor. In addition, phase lag compensation is inserted to adjust phase angles, which are of a frequency of 1 Hz. According to simulation results, a detection range from 0.1 Hz to 50 Hz is expected. It has been demonstrated that the developed sensor with a small size and light weight has a detection range of from 0.5 Hz to 50 Hz for absolute displacement and velocity. As an additional advantage, the measurement displacement amplitude has been expanded to about 20 dB. This sensor is available to use for the active control method. of flexible structures like high rise buildings using the LQ control

New Extended Jacobi Elliptic Function Rational Expansion Method and Its Application

In this paper, an extended Jacobi elliptic function rational expansion method is proposed for constructing new forms of exact Jacobi elliptic function solutions to nonlinear partial differential equations by means of making a more general transformation. For illustration, we apply the method to the （2＋1）-dimensional dispersive long wave equation and successfully obtain many new doubly periodic solutions, which degenerate as soliton solutions when the modulus m approximates 1. The method can also be applied to other nonlinear partial differential equations.

网络经济下供应链管理模式的创新与构建

从供应链管理现行模式出发,分析了网络经济效应,然后基于经济长波周期理论,在对网络经济下供应链可能面临的合作信任、人力资源和社会责任管理等社会心理健康问题进行分析,并且综合考虑战略、运作和技术层面对网络经济下的供应链新模式进行构建,并提出相应的解决措施。

FINITE DIMENSIONAL BEHAVIOR FOR THE DISSIPATIVE GENERALIZED SYMMETRIC REGULARIZED LONG WAVE EQUATIONS

This paper deals with the asymptotic behaviour of solutions for thegeneralized symmetric regularized long wave equations with dissipation term. We first show theexistence of global weak attractors for the periodic initial value problem of this equations in H^2x H^1. And then by an energy equation and an idea of Ghidaglia and Guo, we conclude that the globalweak attractor is actually the global strong attractor for S(t) in H^2 (Ω) x H^1 (Ω). The finitedimensionality of the global attractor is also established.

Interaction Behaviours Between Solitons and Cnoidal Periodic Waves for (2＋1)-Dimensional Caudrey–Dodd–Gibbon–Kotera–Sawada Equation

The consistent tanh expansion(CTE) method is employed to the(2+1)-dimensional Caudrey–Dodd–Gibbon–Kotera–Sawada(CDGKS) equation. The interaction solutions between solitons and the cnoidal periodic waves are explicitly obtained. Concretely, we discuss a special kind of interaction solution in the form of tanh functions and Jacobian elliptic functions in both analytical and graphical ways. The results show that the profiles of the soliton-cnoidal periodic wave interaction solutions can be designed by choosing different values of wave parameters.

Nonautonomous Dark Solitons and Rogue Waves in a Graded-Index Grating Waveguide

We analytically present a family of nonautonomous dark solitons and rogue waves in a planar graded-index grating waveguide with an additional long-period grating.The dark solitons whose dynamics described by the explicit expressions such as the valley,background and wave central position are investigated.We find that dark soliton's depth and the long-period grating have effects on soliton's wave central position;the gain or loss term affects directly both the background and valley of the soliton.For rogue waves,it is reported that one can modulate the distribution of the light intensity by adjusting the parameters of the long-period grating.Additionally,more rogue waves with different evolution behaviors in this special waveguide are demonstrated clearly.