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基于高斯混合模型和极限状态阈值随机性的概率地震需求分析
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作者 贾大卫 吴子燕 何乡 《振动与冲击》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2022年第20期225-234,共10页
传统概率地震需求分析普遍采用对数正态分布假定,且大多基于固定阈值衡量结构性能极限状态,这些简化方法很多时候与实际存在较大偏差。提出基于高斯混合模型(Gaussian mixture model,GMM)的概率地震需求分析法。利用多维性能极限状态方... 传统概率地震需求分析普遍采用对数正态分布假定,且大多基于固定阈值衡量结构性能极限状态,这些简化方法很多时候与实际存在较大偏差。提出基于高斯混合模型(Gaussian mixture model,GMM)的概率地震需求分析法。利用多维性能极限状态方程衡量结构破坏程度。基于增量动力分析法(increment dynamic analysis,IDA)计算结构工程需求参数(engineering demand parameter,EDP),基于IDA曲线斜率划分结构阈值。不采用对数正态分布假定,利用GMM分别建立EDP和阈值的概率密度函数,将传统概率地震需求分析的三重积分拓展到五重积分,充分考虑阈值的随机性。利用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo,MC)法求解,得到结构需求年平均超越概率。分别建立某钢筋混凝土框剪和框架结构作为研究对象,以最大层间位移角(maximum inter-story drift ratio,MIDR)、最大层加速度(peak floor acceleration,PFA)作为EDP。研究表明:阈值具有较强的随机性,并且会随着破坏程度的提高而提高,忽略阈值随机性会导致结果出现较大偏差;与传统对数正态分布假定相比,基于GMM所得结构需求年平均超越概率偏小,对数正态分布假定会得到不准确的评估结果。 展开更多
关键词 概率地震需求分析 多维性能极限状态 高斯混合模型(GMM) 阈值随机性 增量动力分析(IDA)
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考虑竞争失效的交流接触器可靠性评估方法 被引量:3
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作者 王浩然 项石虎 +2 位作者 李奎 赵昌东 马典良 《仪器仪表学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第4期40-51,共12页
交流接触器广泛用于电力系统,精准评估其可靠性是保障系统安全平稳运行的关键。现有交流接触器可靠性研究没有考虑三相触头的竞争失效、退化相关性,及各相触头失效阈值均有随机性等问题,可能造成可靠性评估不精准。针对这些问题,本文用... 交流接触器广泛用于电力系统,精准评估其可靠性是保障系统安全平稳运行的关键。现有交流接触器可靠性研究没有考虑三相触头的竞争失效、退化相关性,及各相触头失效阈值均有随机性等问题,可能造成可靠性评估不精准。针对这些问题,本文用累积电弧侵蚀量表征性能状态,建立了考虑竞争失效、退化相关性和失效阈值随机性的退化模型;对模型参数较多且难以同时估计所有参数的问题,提出了基于极大似然估计的多阶段参数估计方法;基于蒙特卡洛技术提出了可靠度近似计算方法,并基于黎曼和技术推导出平均故障时间的近似式;最后,通过仿真与实例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。实例分析表明所提可靠性评估方法精度较高,其拟合优度比现有方法提升了约45%。 展开更多
关键词 交流接触器 可靠性评估 竞争失效 退化相关性 失效阈值随机性
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Remaining useful life estimation based on Wiener degradation processes with random failure threshold 被引量:15
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作者 TANG Sheng-jin YU Chuan-qiang +3 位作者 FENG Yong-bao XIE Jian GAO Qin-he SI Xiao-sheng 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第9期2230-2241,共12页
Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the fail... Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation. 展开更多
关键词 condition based maintenance remaining useful life wiener process random failure threshold BAYESIAN EM algorithm
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Stochastic Resonance in a Simple Threshold Sensor System with Alpha Stable Noise
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作者 张志瑞 康艳梅 谢勇 《Communications in Theoretical Physics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第5期578-582,共5页
We investigate the effect of alpha stable noise on stochastic resonance in a single-threshold sensor system by analytic deduction and stochastic simulation. It is shown that stochastic resonance occurs in the threshol... We investigate the effect of alpha stable noise on stochastic resonance in a single-threshold sensor system by analytic deduction and stochastic simulation. It is shown that stochastic resonance occurs in the threshold system in alpha stable noise environment, but the resonant effect becomes weakened as the alpha stable index decreases or the skewness parameter of alpha stable distribution increases. In particular, for Cauchy noise a nonlinear relation among the optimal noise deviation parameter, the signal amplitude and the threshold is analytically obtained and illustrated by using the extreme value condition for the output signal-to-noise ratio. The results presented in this communication should have application in signal detection and image restoration in the non-Gaussian noisy environment. 展开更多
关键词 anomalous diffusion alpha stable noise stochastic resonance SENSOR
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INDUCED SUBGRAPH IN RANDOM REGULAR GRAPH
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作者 Lan XIAO Guiying YAN Yuwen WU Wei REN 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2008年第4期645-650,共6页
Let Gn,d be a random d-regular graph with n vertices, where d = o(n). Given a fixed graph H, YH denotes the number of induced copies of H in Gn d In this paper, the authors determine the threshold of the event "YH ... Let Gn,d be a random d-regular graph with n vertices, where d = o(n). Given a fixed graph H, YH denotes the number of induced copies of H in Gn d In this paper, the authors determine the threshold of the event "YH 〉 0", and also obtain the induced subgraph counts inside the threshold interval. 展开更多
关键词 Induced subgraph Poisson distribution random regular graph strictly balanced threshold.
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