At evaluating the combat effectiveness of the defense system, target′s probability to penetrate the defended area is a primary care taking index. In this paper, stochastic model to compete the probability that targe...At evaluating the combat effectiveness of the defense system, target′s probability to penetrate the defended area is a primary care taking index. In this paper, stochastic model to compete the probability that target penetrates the defended area along any flight path is established by the state analysis and statistical equilibrium analysis of stochastic service system theory. The simulated annealing algorithm is an enlightening random search method based on Monte Carlo recursion, and it can find global optimal solution by simulating annealing process. Combining stochastic model to compete the probability and simulated annealing algorithm, this paper establishes the method to solve problem quantitatively about combat configuration optimization of weapon systems. The calculated result shows that the perfect configuration for fire cells of the weapon is fast found by using this method, and this quantificational method for combat configuration is faster and more scientific than previous one based on principle via map fire field.展开更多
A Bayesian method is used to evaluate the component safety failure model parameter of the safe arming system of an air faced missile in flight. It was proved that Bayes estimation of the model parameter is coinciden...A Bayesian method is used to evaluate the component safety failure model parameter of the safe arming system of an air faced missile in flight. It was proved that Bayes estimation of the model parameter is coincident with the physical explanation of the prior probability density distribution of the random parameter.展开更多
文摘At evaluating the combat effectiveness of the defense system, target′s probability to penetrate the defended area is a primary care taking index. In this paper, stochastic model to compete the probability that target penetrates the defended area along any flight path is established by the state analysis and statistical equilibrium analysis of stochastic service system theory. The simulated annealing algorithm is an enlightening random search method based on Monte Carlo recursion, and it can find global optimal solution by simulating annealing process. Combining stochastic model to compete the probability and simulated annealing algorithm, this paper establishes the method to solve problem quantitatively about combat configuration optimization of weapon systems. The calculated result shows that the perfect configuration for fire cells of the weapon is fast found by using this method, and this quantificational method for combat configuration is faster and more scientific than previous one based on principle via map fire field.
文摘A Bayesian method is used to evaluate the component safety failure model parameter of the safe arming system of an air faced missile in flight. It was proved that Bayes estimation of the model parameter is coincident with the physical explanation of the prior probability density distribution of the random parameter.
