Wavelets are a useful tool for analyzing the time-frequency of a non-stable series and are widely applied in many fields. The process of earthquake preparation and occurrence is a non-linear process. In the paper, the...Wavelets are a useful tool for analyzing the time-frequency of a non-stable series and are widely applied in many fields. The process of earthquake preparation and occurrence is a non-linear process. In the paper, the wavelet method is used to analyze the series of earthquake data for the time period from 1900 to 2003 in the west of the Chinese mainland and its adjacent area (WCMAA), and to obtain the characteristic information for different time scales. In the past 103 years, there were four primary periods of regional earthquake activity in the area with durations of 42, 22, 7 and 14 years, respectively and the intensity of earthquake activity changing with time. It doesn’t make sense to talk about active or quiet periods of earthquake activity unless it is based on a specific time scale. In addition, the tendency analysis of earthquake activity using the primary period of seismic activity and wavelet coefficients of varied time scales indicates that the earthquake activity in this region will be high in the forthcoming years.展开更多
Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry...Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.展开更多
The formation of strath and strath terrace is closely related to tectonic uplift in the drainage basin. Based on the investigation of straths at Yandantu and Changcaogou on the eastern segment of the northern margin f...The formation of strath and strath terrace is closely related to tectonic uplift in the drainage basin. Based on the investigation of straths at Yandantu and Changcaogou on the eastern segment of the northern margin fault of Altun, and in combination with the paleoclimatic data, the tectonic uplift since late Epipleistocene as revealed by stream terraces at the two places is discussed. At Yandantu, three levels of stream terraces(T 1, T 2 and T 3)have developed since 16ka BP, where T 1, T 3 and T 2 are fill terraces and the buried major straths are exposed. The ages of three treads are dated to be about 16.1ka BP, 12.8ka BP and 6.2ka BP, respectively. The three terraces reflect three tectonic uplift events, while the ages of the treads represent the occurrence time of these events. The stream is still beveling the bedrock and widening the channel at present, and the modern strath is being generated. The uplift rate is 4.8～4.5mm/a since 16.1 ka BP in this area. From 12.8ka B.P to 6.2ka BP, The uplift rate was 6.4mm/a. The uplift rate is 3.1mm/a since 6.2ka BP. At Changcaogou, four levels of stream terraces(T 1, T 2, T 3 and T 1′)have developed since 7ka BP. All of them are fill terraces. There are buried straths under the deposits. The buried major strath is exposed on T 3 and T 2 and the minor strath on T 1′and T 1. The ages of treads of the three terraces (T 3, T 2 and T 1′) are 7 ka BP, 3 ka BP and 2.5 ka BP, respectively. The four terraces reflect two uplift events induced by tectonic activities. One occurred in about 7 ka BP, and the other in 3ka BP. The uplift rate is 5.9mm/a since 7.0 ka BP at Changcaogou. From 7ka BP to 3ka BP, the uplift rate was 7.0mm/a, and since 3ka BP till now, the uplift rate is 4.7 mm/a.展开更多
Two types of changes in apparent resistivity (AR) have been linked to earthquake occurrences. This paper studies the changes and their causes, in detail with the ultimate purpose of developing and assessing a method o...Two types of changes in apparent resistivity (AR) have been linked to earthquake occurrences. This paper studies the changes and their causes, in detail with the ultimate purpose of developing and assessing a method of earthquake (EQ) prediction. The AR changes of the first type (CFT) are considered to be precursors related to earthquakes (EQs); these appear mostly in the medium-term period before EQs and in the short-term period preceding EQs. The changes of the second type (CST) are characterized by a turning anomaly of a long-trend AR variation or the drastically descending/ascending anomaly superimposed on such a variation; these appear synchronously in large areas, such as the Chinese mainland, and northern and northwestern China, ect. Their spatio-temporal clusters correspond well to high seismicities in the areas and distant great EQs around the Chinese mainland. Based on the behaviors of the two types of changes, the AR changes observed prior to the Ms8.0 Wenchuan EQ of 2008 are studied. The results show that in the medium-term period before the EQ, noticeable anomalies appeared synchronously at four stations around the Songpan-Ganzi active block, but only weak upward changes were observed in the short-term period preceding the EQ, which caused the prediction of the imminent EQ to fail.展开更多
文摘Wavelets are a useful tool for analyzing the time-frequency of a non-stable series and are widely applied in many fields. The process of earthquake preparation and occurrence is a non-linear process. In the paper, the wavelet method is used to analyze the series of earthquake data for the time period from 1900 to 2003 in the west of the Chinese mainland and its adjacent area (WCMAA), and to obtain the characteristic information for different time scales. In the past 103 years, there were four primary periods of regional earthquake activity in the area with durations of 42, 22, 7 and 14 years, respectively and the intensity of earthquake activity changing with time. It doesn’t make sense to talk about active or quiet periods of earthquake activity unless it is based on a specific time scale. In addition, the tendency analysis of earthquake activity using the primary period of seismic activity and wavelet coefficients of varied time scales indicates that the earthquake activity in this region will be high in the forthcoming years.
基金sponsored by the Special Basic Scientific Research Program of Institute of Earthquake Science(02092425),China Earthquake Administration
文摘Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.
文摘The formation of strath and strath terrace is closely related to tectonic uplift in the drainage basin. Based on the investigation of straths at Yandantu and Changcaogou on the eastern segment of the northern margin fault of Altun, and in combination with the paleoclimatic data, the tectonic uplift since late Epipleistocene as revealed by stream terraces at the two places is discussed. At Yandantu, three levels of stream terraces(T 1, T 2 and T 3)have developed since 16ka BP, where T 1, T 3 and T 2 are fill terraces and the buried major straths are exposed. The ages of three treads are dated to be about 16.1ka BP, 12.8ka BP and 6.2ka BP, respectively. The three terraces reflect three tectonic uplift events, while the ages of the treads represent the occurrence time of these events. The stream is still beveling the bedrock and widening the channel at present, and the modern strath is being generated. The uplift rate is 4.8～4.5mm/a since 16.1 ka BP in this area. From 12.8ka B.P to 6.2ka BP, The uplift rate was 6.4mm/a. The uplift rate is 3.1mm/a since 6.2ka BP. At Changcaogou, four levels of stream terraces(T 1, T 2, T 3 and T 1′)have developed since 7ka BP. All of them are fill terraces. There are buried straths under the deposits. The buried major strath is exposed on T 3 and T 2 and the minor strath on T 1′and T 1. The ages of treads of the three terraces (T 3, T 2 and T 1′) are 7 ka BP, 3 ka BP and 2.5 ka BP, respectively. The four terraces reflect two uplift events induced by tectonic activities. One occurred in about 7 ka BP, and the other in 3ka BP. The uplift rate is 5.9mm/a since 7.0 ka BP at Changcaogou. From 7ka BP to 3ka BP, the uplift rate was 7.0mm/a, and since 3ka BP till now, the uplift rate is 4.7 mm/a.
基金supported by National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2008BAC35B01-8 and 2006BAC01B02-04-03)
文摘Two types of changes in apparent resistivity (AR) have been linked to earthquake occurrences. This paper studies the changes and their causes, in detail with the ultimate purpose of developing and assessing a method of earthquake (EQ) prediction. The AR changes of the first type (CFT) are considered to be precursors related to earthquakes (EQs); these appear mostly in the medium-term period before EQs and in the short-term period preceding EQs. The changes of the second type (CST) are characterized by a turning anomaly of a long-trend AR variation or the drastically descending/ascending anomaly superimposed on such a variation; these appear synchronously in large areas, such as the Chinese mainland, and northern and northwestern China, ect. Their spatio-temporal clusters correspond well to high seismicities in the areas and distant great EQs around the Chinese mainland. Based on the behaviors of the two types of changes, the AR changes observed prior to the Ms8.0 Wenchuan EQ of 2008 are studied. The results show that in the medium-term period before the EQ, noticeable anomalies appeared synchronously at four stations around the Songpan-Ganzi active block, but only weak upward changes were observed in the short-term period preceding the EQ, which caused the prediction of the imminent EQ to fail.
