海-陆-气全球耦合模式能量收支的误差

通过分析GOALS模式两个版本GOALS 1.1和GOALS 2的能量收支 ,并与观测对比 ,结果表明 :模式模拟的地表净短波辐射通量在高纬地区偏低 ,而净长波辐射通量又偏高 ,导致极地表面温度偏低 ,感热通量在高纬地区为很高的负值。而在陆地上感热加热作用显著偏强 ,使地表有较大的向上净能量给大气 ,引起陆地上有些暖中心也偏强 ,这也解释了模式模拟地表面空气温度场的误差原因。海洋上潜热通量偏低 ,特别是在副热带洋面上偏少更明显。陆地上的欧亚和北美大陆大部分地区潜热通量仍偏低。这也是模式降水在大部分地区偏少的重要原因。两模式大气顶OLR偏低的模拟主要是在中低纬度 ,大气顶净短波辐射通量的模拟在中低纬度虽然与NCEP结果接近 ,但与地球辐射收支试验ERBE资料比较仍偏小较多 ,说明改进中低纬度云 辐射参数化方案对改进全球能量收支的模拟有重要意义。GOALS 2模式中诊断云方案模拟的云量除赤道地区外普遍偏小 ,尤以中纬度为甚 ,造成那里能量收支出现大的误差 。

海-陆-气耦合模式中海洋分量的温盐模拟分析

基于OASIS耦合器,发展了一套具有较高分辨率并行化的海-陆-气耦合模式,并进行了30年以上的耦合积分。为了评估模式中海洋分量的基本性能,首先考察了耦合模式对"气候漂移"的控制,然后对比分析了耦合与未耦合海洋环流模式模拟温度和盐度的气候态特征和季节变化,结果显示耦合模式的模拟结果中没有出现明显的"气候漂移现象",同时能较好的模拟全球大洋温盐分布的基本特征和季节变化。

海岸气象学的研究进展

海岸气象学是研究发生在海岸带区域，在陆气海耦合作用下的大气过程与现象的新生分支学科。作者根据海岸大气过程的动力、热气特征，产生机理以及国内外近年来的研究发展，从四方面：①边界层过程与海气相互作用②热力驱动环流③地形强迫作用④大尺度天气过程与海岸环境相互作用。

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF EFFECT OF SSTA OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN ON ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION IN THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDE

Numerical experiments on forcing dissipation and heating response of dipole (unipole) are carried out using global spectral models with quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equations. For each experiment model integration is run for 90 days on the condition of three-wave quasi-resonance. The results are given as follows: Under the effects of dipole (unipole) forcing source and basic flow intensity, there exist strong interactions among the three planetary waves and quasi-biweekly and intraseasonal oscillation of the three planetary waves. In the meantime, the changes in the intensity of dipole or unipole forcing source and basic flow have different frequency modulation effects on LFO in the middle and higher latitudes. The results of the stream function field of three quasi-resonant waves evolving with time confirm that the low-frequency oscillation exists in extratropical latitude.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEI-YU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS VALLEYS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

Based on the precipitation data of Meiyu at 37 stations in the valleys of Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers from 1954 to 2001, the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and their relationships with the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific are investigated using such methods as harmonic analysis, empirical orthogonal ftmction （EOF）, composite analysis and singular value decomposition （SVD）. The results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basins but with prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities. The key region between the anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTA） lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific, which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation over a key period of time from January to March in the same year. When the SST in the North Pacific west wind drift is warmer （colder） than average during these months, Meiyu precipitation anomalously increases （decreases） in the concurrent year. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which pass the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.

气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。

The Structure of a Typical Mei-Yu Front Identified by the Equivalent Temperature

In China's Mainland, the summer monsoon rainy band is referred to as the mei-yu precipitation front, which extends northward from South China to the Yangtze River, Huaihe River, and Yellow River, depending on the season. This paper describes the structure of the mei-yu front associated with a persistent heavy rainfall event that occurred in the summer of 2007. The mei-yu front occurs when the subtropical oceanic warm, moist air mass and the extra tropical continental dry, cold air mass converge on the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau. The authors defined the equivalent temperature using two terms of dry-air temperature and the specific humidity and calculated its horizontal gradient to indicate the mei-yu front. The vertical structure of the mei-yu front and the moist thermal winds surrounding it were examined based on the equivalent temperature.

全球季风动力学与气候变化

本文结合现代季风和古季风研究成果对全球季风进行了一个全面回顾,并引入了一个全球季风的新定义,该定义考虑了三维分布、终极成因,强调了季节性气压梯度变化对季风环流的影响,并同时使用了环流与降水来描述季风强度。我们在从构造到季节内的宽广时间尺度上来考察全球季风气候变化。全球季风的性质包括全球不均一性、区域差异性、季节性、准周期性、不规则性、不稳定性和穿时性。对全球季风动力学来说,太阳辐射、地球轨道参数、下垫面性质和海-陆-气相互作用十分重要。本文还讨论了季风变率在不同时间尺度上的主要驱动因子以及多时间尺度之间的动力学关系。自然过程与人类活动影响对我们理解未来全球季风行为都非常重要。

GOALS模式对热带太平洋ENSO年际变化特征的模拟评估

文中重点分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG最新发展的全球大气环流谱模式 (R4 2L9)与一全球海洋环流模式 (T6 3L30 )耦合形成的全球海洋 大气 陆面气候系统模式 (GOALS/LASG)新版本已积分 30a的模拟结果 ,通过与多种观测资料的对比分析 ,讨论了赤道太平洋海表温度 (SST)的年际变化及其纬向传播、赤道东太平洋SST异常与其他洋面SST变化之间的遥相关关系、赤道太平洋浅表层海温的年际变化特征等研究内容。结果表明 ,GOALS模式模拟出了赤道太平洋SST异常出现不规则的年际变化特点 ;赤道东太平洋SST异常的向西传播过程 ;赤道太平洋混合层海温变化由西向东、由深层向浅层的传播过程 ;同时也模拟出了赤道东太平洋SST变化与赤道西太平洋以及与西南太平洋海温之间的反相关关系 ,与南印度洋和副热带大西洋SST之间的正遥相关关系等实际观测现象。但GOALS模式也存在明显的不足 ,如对赤道东、中太平洋SST异常的年际变化幅度明显偏小 ,没能模拟出赤道东太平洋的SST变化比赤道中太平洋强的特点 ;赤道太平洋SST从东向西的传播速度明显比实际观测慢得多 ,但混合层海温极值变化由西向东的传播速度明显比实际情况快得多 ;没能模拟出赤道东太平洋SST变化同西北太平洋SST的负相关和北印度洋海温变化的正相关现象 ,因此?

广义平衡反馈分析方法

广义平衡反馈分析方法(GEFA)是美国威斯康星大学刘征宇教授在EFA(平衡反馈分析方法)的基础上提出的一种应用于气候异常因子诊断分析方法,该方法把一元平衡反馈分析方法拓展到多元反馈分析,可以把不同海区对气候异常的各自贡献分离出来。此外,GEFA还能用来研究其他类型边界(如陆面)对大气的强迫作用,可系统地分析全球下垫面对大气的反馈特征,GEFA方法在异常气候成因诊断、数值模式分析诊断中具有很好的业务应用前景,它也是研究海-陆-气相互作用的一种有效统计工具。

Methane seepages in the northern South China Sea: evidence from in situ measurements

Continental margins in world oceans contain large amounts of marine gas hydrates. Changes in the temperature and pressure of sediment may destabilize the methane hydrate, leading to its release and seepage into the sea. This process would increase the dissolved methane in the ambient seawater. In this study, a methane sensor was used to detect methane anomalies in the water column in southwestern Dongsha and Shenhu, northern slope of the South China Sea. Methane plumes were detected at stations SCS001 and T001 in the southwestern Dongsha area, and station SCS002 in the Shenhu area, respectively. The maximum methane concentrations were 8.8 nmol/L in southwestern Dongsha and 10.1 nmol/L in Shenhu, which are about 4–5 times higher than the background methane concentration. This indicates that there are active methane seepages present in both the southwestern Dongsha and Shenhu areas, which are likely related to a methane hydrate reservoir beneath the seafloor. A methane sensor with a low detection limit is a practical instrument with which to detect methane plumes in oceanic environments and to monitor methane leakage from the seafloor.

Eurasian Winter Cooling: Intercomparison of Reanalyses and CMIP5 Data Sets

A cooling trend in wintertime surface air temperature over continental Eurasia has been identified in reanalysis and the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)‘historical’simulations over the period 1989–2009.Here the authors have shown that this cooling trend is related to changes in Arctic sea-ice around the Barents-Kara seas.This study illustrates a consistent spatial and temporal structure of the wintertime temperature variability centered over Asia using state-of-the-art reanalyses and global climate model datasets.Our findings indicate that there is a physical basis for seasonal predictions of near-surface temperatures over continental Asia based on changes to the ice-cover in the Barents-Kara seas.

A spectral mixture model analysis of the Kuroshio variability and the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea

For understanding more about the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea,We studied the variability of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea(ECS) in the period of 1991 to 2008 using a three-dimensional circulation model,and calculated Kuroshio onshore volume transport in the ECS at the minimum of 0.48 Sv(1 Sv ;106 m3/s) in summer and the maximum of 1.69 Sv in winter.Based on the data of WOA05 and NCEP,The modeled result indicates that the Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan Island decreased since 2000.Lateral movements tended to be stronger at two ends of the Kuroshio in the ECS than that of the middle segment.In addition,we applied a spectral mixture model(SMM) to determine the exchange zone between the Kuroshio and the shelf water of the ECS.The result reveals a significantly negative correlation(coefficient of-0.78) between the area of exchange zone and the Kuroshio onshore transport at 200 m isobath in the ECS.This conclusion brings a new view for the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea.Additional to annual and semi-annual signals,intra-seasonal signal of probably the Pacific origin may trigger the events of Kuroshio intrusion and exchange in the ECS.

Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model's performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.

Carbon and oxygen isotope characteristics of foraminiferan from northern South China Sea sediments and their significance to late Quaternary hydrate decomposition

Carbon and oxygen isotope and dating analyses of foraminiferan in sediment cores collected from three different areas of the northern slope of the South China Sea were conducted, in order to examine the records of the gas hydrate decomposition events since the late Quaternary under the conditions of methane seepage. The results show that： 1） the δ13C values of the benthic foraminiferan Uvigerina spp. （size range of 0.25-0.35 ram） are from -0.212% to -0.021% and the δ180 values of the planktonic foraminiferan Globigerinoides ruber （size range of 0.25-0.35 ram） are from -0.311% to -0.060%; 2） three cores （ZD2, ZD3 and ZS5） from the bottom of a hole are aged for 11 814, 26 616 and 64 090 a corresponding to the early oxygen isotope stage （MIS） Ⅰ, Ⅲ and Ⅳ final period, respectively; 3） a negative-skewed layer of carbon isotope corresponds to that of MIS II （cold period）, whose degree of negative bias is -0.2%0; and 4） the δ13C compositions of foraminiferans are similar to those of the Blake Ridge and the Gulf of Mexico sediments of the late Quaternary. According to the analysis, the reasons for these results are that the studied area is a typical area of methane seep environment in the area during MIS II due to the global sea-level fall and sea pressure decrease. Gas hydrate is decomposed and released, and a large number of light carbon isotopes of methane are released into the ocean, dissolved to inorganic carbon （DIC） pool and recorded in the foraminiferan shells. A pyrite layer developed in the negative bias layers of the foraminiferans confirms that the δ13C of foraminiferans is more affected by methane and less by the reduction of marine productivity and early diagenesis. The use of foraminiferan δ13C could accurately determine late Quaternary hydrate release events and provide evidence for both reconstructing the geological history of methane release events and exploring natural gas hydrate.

Analysis of the mechanical property of mudstone/shale in paralic coal measures and its influence factors

The mechanical property of mudstone/shale in coal measures is a key factor of engineering mechanics that influences the development of shale gas. A rock mechanics test was performed in order to analyze the complete stress-strain mechanic characteristics and influence factors of mudstone/shale in paralic coal measures, from the Carboniferous-Permian periods in a coal field of Northern China. The relationship between the mechanical properties of mudstone/shale in coal measures, and its chemical component, water content are established, and their models are constructed. Research results show that mud- stone/shale has low mechanical strength, low elastic modulus and a high Poisson＇s ratio. The complete stress-strain curve has apparent elastoplastic deformation characteristics, and after reaching peak strength, it exhibits obvious strain softening characteristics. The uniaxial compressive strength of mudstone/shale and its elastic modulus increases exponentially with the increase of SiO2 content, and as the ignition loss increases, the uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus of mudstone/shale will decrease according to the law of power function. The compressive strength of mudstone/shale and its elastic modulus will decrease with the increase of water content in mudstone/shale.

RESEARCH PROGRESS ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY CHANGE FOR THE LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES

Landfalling tropical cyclones(LTCs)include those TCs approaching the land and moving across the coast.Structure and intensity change for LTCs include change of the eye wall,spiral rain band,mesoscale vortices,low-layer shear lines and tornadoes in the envelope region of TC,pre-TC squall lines,remote rain bands,core region intensity and extratropical transition(ET)processes,etc.Structure and intensity change of TC are mainly affected by three aspects,namely,environmental effects,inner core dynamics and underlying surface forcing.Structure and intensity change of coastal TCs will be especially affected by seaboard topography,oceanic stratification above the continental shelf and cold dry continental airflow,etc.Rapid changes of TC intensity,including rapid intensification and sudden weakening and dissipation,are the small probability events which are in lack of effective forecasting techniques up to now.Diagnostic analysis and mechanism study will help improve the understanding and prediction of the rapid change phenomena in TCs.

Modulation of land-sea thermal contrast on the energy source and sink of tropical cyclone activity and its annual cycle

In general,the tropical cyclone(TC) activity is considered to be influenced by the heat content of underlying ocean,vertical shear of horizontal wind,vorticity in the low troposphere,moisture in the troposphere,and favorable condition for deep convection development.However,these factors by nature merely present the internal factors of either atmosphere or ocean which influence the TC activity.In fact,the energy budget of the Earth system and its variation,modulated by the land-sea thermal contrast,are the intrinsic reasons responsible for the variation of TC activity.Here we investigate the modulation of diabatic heating distribution associated with the land-sea thermal contrast on the distribution of TC activity energy source and sink as well as the seasonality.An accumulated energy increment index(AEI) is defined using the TC best track data,and the energy sources and sinks of TC activity are then diagnosed effectively and practically according to the distribution of AEI.Results show that the thermal contrast of land and ocean is the primary reason for asymmetric distribution of TC activity about the Equator as well as the zonally asymmetric distribution of TC activity.The energy sources of TC activity are dominated by condensation heating of deep convection or double-dominant heating,which includes the condensation heating and cooling of longwave radiation(LO),while the sink areas are dominated by LO.The large scale diabatic heating associated with land-sea thermal contrast results in more favorable conditions for TC activity over the west part of oceans than those over the east parts.Moreover,the intensity of interaction of different diabatic heating over the west and east parts of ocean is also affected by the zonal scale of the oceans,which induces the difference of TC activity over the western North Pacific(WNP) and North Atlantic(ATL).The favorable westerlies and anticyclonic vertical shear associated with the tropical zonally asymmetric diabatic heating also contribute to the most intense TC activity over the WNP.The variation of large scale diabatic heating modulates the annual cycle of TC energy sources and sinks.In particular,the annual cycle over the WNP is the most typical one among the three basins(the WNP,the south Indian Ocean,and western South Pacific) that are characterized by the meridional shift of the energy sources and sinks.However,sources over the eastern North Pacific tend to extend westward and withdraw eastward associated with the variation of LO,while over the ATL,sources always merge from small pieces into a big one as the different diabatic heating over its west and east parts interacts with each other.Over the boreal Indian Ocean,the subcontinental scale land-sea heating contrast modifies the large scale circulation,and consequently contributes to the bimodal annual cycle of TC activity.In summary,TC activities are closely related to the interaction among various components of the climate system more than the atmosphere and ocean.

Yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index in China

A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.

A survey on pollen dispersal in the western Pacific Ocean and its paleoclimatological significance as a proxy for variation of the Asian winter monsoon

Pollen grains deposited in marine sediments are transported from land to sea by wind or surface water flows.We analyzed pollen collected from the air and seawater from the coast of the Yellow Sea near China and into the western Pacific Ocean between December 2008 and January 2009 during the cruise "KX08-973".Results showed that abundant pollen grains of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae were probably transported to the continental shelf of the East China Sea,the East Philippine Sea and the equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean by the winter monsoon.Some pollen may have even traveled over 2000 km from the East Asia continent to the tropical Pacific Ocean.However,a gradual decline of temperate components and an increase in tropical components was observed towards the tropical regions.Fern spores were rare in the air samples,but much more abundant in seawater samples,even though they were collected in nearly the same areas,which indicates that most fern spores were carried to the ocean by flowing water.These results suggest that the winter monsoon may be the major pollen carrier and transporter in the study area during winter.