煤振动后力学性质变化规律试验研究

通过对煤的振动实验，研究了煤受振前后裂隙发生、发展规律以及弹性模量、降模量和抗压强度的变化规律，为煤体振动方法用于现场提供了物理基础。

岩样单轴拉伸损伤不均匀性分析——第二部分:损伤局部化

分析了本构参数对损伤局部化的影响规律。局部损伤变量及局部损伤变量率具有局部化特征。随着流动拉应力降低,局部损伤变量增加。随着降模量增加,局部损伤变量降低。增加弹性模量,局部损伤变量增加。增加降模量或降低弹性模量,局部损伤变量最大值-流动应力的关系趋于平直。降模量及弹性模量对局部损伤变量率的影响取决于流动应力的大小。增加内部长度参数,局部损伤变量梯度及局部损伤变量率梯度降低,内部长度参数不影响局部损伤变量(率)的最大值。降低降模量或增加弹性模量,局部损伤变量率最大值-流动应力的关系趋于平直。

Study on the Water Balance in Three Dominant Plants with Simulated Precipitation Change in Maowusu Sandland

The distribution pattern and productivity of Maowusu sandland terrestrial ecosystem are greatly affected with the future severe global change, especially global precipitation change. Considering the predicative global precipitation change and the appropriate relevant strategy for the sustainable development of the China dry territory, the authors have investigated the response of water balance to global precipitation change by creating an artificial control of four levels of water supply treating 3 dominant plants in Mauwusu sandland. The results showed that the seasonal changes of water storage and moisture of different sandland layer depths were affected by different water supply treatments and different plants. The water storage of the three plant growing sandlands and the moisture of different sandland layer depths increased as water supply was increased. The moisture of different water supply treatments and plants increased with the increase of sandland layer depth. The water storage and moisture of the same layer depth of Hedysarum mongolicum Turcz. growing sandland were larger than that of Salix psammophila C. Wang et Ch. Y. Yang growing sandland, which were in turn higher than that of Artemisia ordosica Krasch. growing sandland in the same water supply treatment. Water supply significantly affected the seasonal changes of evaporation and transpiration of the three plant growing sandlands. With the increased levels of water supply, viz. 157.5 mm, 315.0 mm, 472.5 mm and 630.0 mm, the total evaporation was 123.66 mm, 258.68 mm, 376.30 mm, 458.57 mm, respectively, and the total transpiration of A. ordosica was 50.80 mm, 68.93 mm, 108.39 mm, 163.36 mm, respectively, and that of S. psammophila , 47.37 mm, 68.17 mm, 93.65 mm, 135.97 mm, respectively, and that of H. mongolicum 46.73 mm, 67.37 mm, 86.07 mm, 109.64 mm, respectively. Evaporation was significantly higher than transpiration in the experiment.

陶瓷基复合材料连接结构失效分析方法

目的分析陶瓷基复合材料的结构强度。方法围绕C/SiC陶瓷基复合材料连接结构失效分析问题,提出模量突降和渐进损伤两种分析方法,基于Abaqus软件平台编写UMAT有限元分析子程序,结合试验数据分析多种不同失效准则在陶瓷基复合材料结构强度分析中的适用性。结果基于改进三维Hashin失效准则,针对典型C/SiC复合材料连接结构进行了失效行为计算,获得结构的失效模式与试验结果规律一致,破坏载荷的预测误差在10%以内。结论通过与试验结果的对比分析,验证了两种方法的有效性,研究方法能够为高超声速飞行器、天地往返飞行器复合材料热结构的强度分析提供技术支撑。

NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS OF A TORRENTIAL RAIN CAUSED BY TYPHOON

A heavy storm rainfall caused by Typhoon Aere (No.0418) when landing at Fujian has been successfully simulated by using AREM model. The simulation result is scale-separated by spatial band-pass filtering, which reveals the mesoscale low pressure and convergence line that has direct impact on this rainfall process. The physical characteristics of the two mesoscale systems and their relation with rainfall are also analyzed. Study shows that there exists a well corresponding relationship between the storm rainfall and mesoscale divergence and strong updraft arising from the convergence, which is caused by the interactions between the mesoscale systems and topographic features, and is directly responsible for the rainfall.

A Case Study of Impact of FY-2C Satellite Data in Cloud Analysis to Improve Short-Range Precipitation Forecast

Chinese FengYun-2C(FY-2C) satellite data were combined into the Local Analysis and Prediction System(LAPS) model to obtain three-dimensional cloud parameters and rain content. These parameters analyzed by LAPS were used to initialize the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System model(GRAPES) in China to predict precipitation in a rainstorm case in the country. Three prediction experiments were conducted and were used to investigate the impacts of FY-2C satellite data on cloud analysis of LAPS and on short range precipitation forecasts. In the first experiment, the initial cloud fields was zero value. In the second, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS without combining the satellite data. In the third experiment, the initial cloud fields were cloud liquid water, cloud ice, and rain content derived from LAPS including satellite data. The results indicated that the FY-2C satellite data combination in LAPS can show more realistic cloud distributions, and the model simulation for precipitation in 1–6 h had certain improvements over that when satellite data and complex cloud analysis were not applied.

Effects of spectral nudging on the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon using WRF model

The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations.

Role of Black Carbon-Induced Changes in Snow Albedo in Predictions of Temperature and Precipitation during a Snowstorm

In this study the authors apply the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model （WRF-Chem） to examine the impacts of black carbon （BC）-induced changes in snow albedo on simulated temperature and precipitation during the severe snowstorm that occurred in southern China during 0800 26 January to 0800 29 January 2008 （Note that all times are local time except when otherwise stated）. Black carbon aerosol was simulated online within the WRF-Chem. The model resuits showed that surface-albedo, averaged over 27-28 January, can be reduced by up to 10% by the deposition of BC. As a result, relative to a simulation that does not consider deposition of BC on snow/ice, the authors predicted surface air temperatures during 27-28 January can differ by -1.95 to 2.70 K, and the authors predicted accumulated precipitation over 27-28 January can differ by -2.91 to 3.10 mm over Areas A and B with large BC deposition. Different signs of changes are determined by the feedback of clouds and by the availability of water vapor in the atmosphere.

Regional Climate Change and Uncertainty Analysis based on Four Regional Climate Model Simulations over China

Four sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral bounda- ries by two global models for the period 1981-2050. The locus of the study was on the ensemble projection of cli- mate change in the mid-21st century （2031-50） over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day （1981 2000） December-February （DJF）, June-August （JJA）, and annual （ANN） mean temperature and precipitation. Significant wanning was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipitation projection are in eastern China during the summer season （monsoon pre-cipitation）.

Century-long variability and trends in daily precipitation characteristics at three Finnish stations

Long-term variations and trends in a wide range of statistics for daily precipitation characteristics in terms of intensity, frequency and duration in Finland were analysed using precipitation records during 1908e2008 from 3 meteorological stations in the south(Kaisaniemi),centre(Kajaani) and north(Sodankyl€a). Although precipitation days in northern part were more frequent than in central and southern parts, daily precipitation intensity in the south was generally higher than those in the centre and north of the country. Annual sum of very light precipitation(0 mm < daily precipitation long-term 50 th percentile of daily precipitation more than 0 mm) significantly( p < 0.05) decreased over time,with the highest rate in northern Finland. These decreasing trends might be the result of significant increases in frequency of days with very light precipitation at all the stations, with the highest and lowest rates in northern and southern Finland, respectively. Ratio of annual total precipitation to number of precipitation days also declined in Finland over 1908e2008, with a decreasing north to south gradient. However, annual duration indices of daily precipitation revealed no statistically significant trends at any station. Daily precipitation characteristics showed significant relationships with various well-known atmospheric circulation patterns(ACPs). In particular, the East Atlantic/West Russia(EA/WR)pattern in summer was the most influential ACP negatively associated with different daily precipitation intensity, frequency and duration indices at all three stations studied.

Analysis of Runoff in Ungauged Mountain Watersheds in Sichuan,China using Kinematic-wave-based GIUH Model

Floods are one of the most common natural hazards occurring all around the world.However,the knowledge of the origins of a food and its possible magnitude in a given region remains unclear yet.This lack of understanding is particularly acute in mountainous regions with large degrees in Sichuan Province,China,where runoff is seldom measured.The nature of streamflow in a region is related to the time and spatial distribution of rainfall quantity and watershed geomorphology.The geomorphologic characteristics are the channel network and surrounding landscape which transform the rainfall input into an output hydrograph at the outlet of the watershed.With the given geomorphologic properties of the watershed,theoretically the hydrological response function can be determined hydraulically without using any recorded data of past rainfall or runoff events.In this study,a kinematic-wave-based geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (KW-GIUH) model was adopted and verified to estimate runoff in ungauged areas.Two mountain watersheds,the Yingjing River watershed and Tianquan River watershed in Sichuan were selected as study sites.The geomorphologic factors of the two watersheds were obtained by using a digital elevation model (DEM) based on the topographic database obtained from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission of US's NASA.The tests of the model on the two watersheds were performed both at gauged and ungauged sites.Comparison between the simulated and observed hydrographs for a number of rainstorms at the gauged sites indicated the potential of the KW-GIUH model as a useful tool for runoff analysis in these regions.Moreover,to simulate possible concentrated rainstorms that could result in serious flooding in these areas,synthetic rainfall hyetographs were adopted as input to the KW-GIUH model to obtain the flow hydrographs at two ungauged sites for different return period conditions.Hydroeconomic analysis can be performed in the future to select the optimum design return period for determining the flood control work.

Full 2D Hydrodynamic Modelling of Rainfall-induced Flash Floods

Mountain catchments are prone to flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Enhanced understanding of the generation and evolution processes of flash floods is essential for effective flood risk management. However, traditional distributed hydrological models based on kinematic and diffusion wave approximations ignore certain physical mechanisms of flash floods and thus bear excessive uncertainty. Here a hydrodynamic model is presented for flash floods based on the full two-dimensional shallow water equations incorporating rainfall and infiltration. Laboratory experiments of overland flows were modelled to illustrate the capability of the model. Then the model was applied to resolve two observed flash floods of distinct magnitudes in the Lengkou catchment in Shanxi Province, China. The present model is shown to be able to reproduce the flood flows fairly well compared to the observed data. The spatial distribution of rainfall is shown to be crucial for the modelling of flash floods. Sensitivity analyses of the model parameters reveal that the stage and discharge hydrographs are more sensitive to the Manning roughness and initial water content in the catchment than to the Green-Ampt head. Most notably, as the flash flood augments due to heavier rainfall, the modelling results agree with observed data better, which clearly characterizes the paramount role of rainfall in dictating the floods. From practical perspectives, the proposed model is more appropriate for modelling large flash floods.

Spatiotemporal interpolation of precipitation across Xinjiang, China using space-time CoKriging

In various environmental studies, geoscience variables not only have the characteristics of time and space, but also are influenced by other variables. Multivariate spatiotemporal variables can improve the accuracy of spatiotemporal estimation. Taking the monthly mean ground observation data of the period 1960–2013 precipitation in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, the spatiotemporal distribution from January to December in 2013 was respectively estimated by space-time Kriging and space-time CoKriging. Modeling spatiotemporal direct variograms and a cross variogram was a key step in space-time CoKriging. Taking the monthly mean air relative humidity of the same site at the same time as the covariates, the spatiotemporal direct variograms and the spatiotemporal cross variogram of the monthly mean precipitation for the period 1960–2013 were modeled. The experimental results show that the space-time CoKriging reduces the mean square error by 31.46% compared with the space-time ordinary Kriging. The correlation coefficient between the estimated values and the observed values of the space-time CoKriging is 5.07% higher than the one of the space-time ordinary Kriging. Therefore, a space-time CoKriging interpolation with air humidity as a covariate improves the interpolation accuracy.

High-Resolution Hindcast of Record-Breaking Rainfall in Beijing and Impact of Topography

In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system.

Prediction of dust fall concentrations in urban atmospheric environment through support vector regression

Support vector regression （SVR） method is a novel type of learning machine algorithms, which is seldom applied to the development of urban atmospheric quality models under multiple socio-economic factors. This study presents four SVR models by selecting linear, radial basis, spline, and polynomial functions as kernels, respectively for the prediction of urban dust fall levels. The inputs of the models are identified as industrial coal consumption, population density, traffic flow coefficient, and shopping density coefficient. The training and testing results show that the SVR model with radial basis kernel performs better than the other three both in the training and testing processes. In addition, a number of scenario analyses reveal that the most suitable parameters （insensitive loss function e, the parameter to reduce the influence of error C, and discrete level or average distribution of parameters σ） are 0.001, 0.5, and 2 000, respectively.

Change in Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5

The changes in a selection of extreme climate indices(maximum of daily maximum temperature(TXx),minimum of daily minimum temperature(TNn),annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation(very wet days,R95p),and the maximum number of consecutive days with less than 1 mm of precipitation(consecutive dry days,CDD))were projected using multi-model results from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in the early,middle,and latter parts of the 21st century under different Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emissions scenarios.The results suggest that TXx and TNn will increase in the future and,moreover,the increases of TNn under all RCPs are larger than those of TXx.R95p is projected to increase and CDD to decrease significantly.The changes in TXx,TNn,R95p,and CDD in eight sub-regions of China are different in the three periods of the 21st century,and the ranges of change for the four indices under the higher emissions scenario are projected to be larger than those under the lower emissions scenario.The multi-model simulations show remarkable consistency in their projection of the extreme temperature indices,but poor consistency with respect to the extreme precipitation indices.More substantial inconsistency is found in those regions where high and low temperatures are likely to happen for TXx and TNn,respectively.For extreme precipitation events(R95p),greater uncertainty appears in most of the southern regions,while for drought events(CDD)it appears in the basins of Xinjiang.The uncertainty in the future changes of the extreme climate indices increases with the increasing severity of the emissions scenario.

A topographical model for precipitation pattern in the Tibetan Plateau

As the highest and most extensive plateau on earth, the Tibetan Plateau has strong thermo- dynamic effect, which not only affects regional climate around the plateau but precipitation patterns of scattered meteorological also temperature and itself. However, due to stations, its spatial precipitation pattern and, especially, the mechanism behind are poorly understood. The availability of spatially consistent satellite-derived precipitation data makes it possible to get accurate precipitation pattern in the plateau, which could help quantitatively explore the effect and mechanism of mass elevation effect on precipitation pattern. This paper made full use of TMPA 3B43 V7 monthly precipitation data to track the trajectory of precipitation and identified four routes （east, southeast, south, west directions） along which moisture-laden air masses move into the plateau. We made the assumption that precipitation pattern is the result interplay of these four moisture- laden air masses transportation routes against the distances from moisture sources and the topographic barriers along the routes. To do so, we developed a multivariate linear regression model with the spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation as the dependent variable and the topographical barriers to these four moisture sources as independent variables. The result shows that our model could explain about 7o% of spatial variation of mean annual precipitation pattern in the plateau; the regression analysis also shows that the southeast moisture source （the Bay of Bengal） contributes the most （32.56%） to the rainfall pattern of the plateau; the east and the south sources have nearly the same contribution, 23.59% and 23.48%, respectively; while the west source contributes the least, only 2o.37%. The findings of this study can greatly improve our understanding of mass elevation effect on spatial precipitation pattern.

Simulating Dry Deposition Fluxes of PM_(10) and Particulate Inorganic Nitrogen over the Eastern China Seas During a Severe Asian Dust Event Using WRF-Chem Model

A WRF-Chem model including a comprehensive gas-phase nitrogen chemistry module was used to simulate a severe dust event appearing in the eastern China on 19-25 March, 2002. The modeling result well reproduced PM10 concentrations in various distances from the dust sources and the transport pathway of the dust strom. The results showed that both the concentrations and the dry deposition fluxes of PM10 increased over the China seas during the dust event following the passage of a cold front system. The maximum fluxes of PM10 in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea during the dust event were 5.5 and 8.4 times of those before the event, respectively. However, the temporal variations of the dry deposition fluxes of particulate inorganic nitrogen differed over the Yellow Sea from those over the East China Sea. Nitrate and ammonium in the whole northern China rapidly decreased because of the intrusion of dust-loaded air on 19 March. The dust plume arrived in the Yellow Sea on 20 March, decreasing the particulate inorganic nitrogen in mass concentration accordingly. The minimum dry deposition fluxes of nitrate and ammonium in the Yellow Sea were about 3/5 and 1/6 of those before the dust arrival, respectively. In contrast, when the dust plume crossed over the Yangtze Delta area, it became abundant in nitrate and ammonium and increased the concentrations and dry deposition fluxes of particulate inorganic nitrogen over the East China Sea, where the maximum dry deposition fluxes of nitrate and ammonium increased approximately by 4.1 and 2.6 times of those prior to the dust arrival.

Impact of Climate Change on Regional Hydroclimate Projection in Peninsular Malaysia

For the assessment of the impact of future climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia, it is necessary to downscale the climate change simulations of a coarse scale General Circulation Model to the region of Peninsular Malaysia at fine grid resolution. This paper presents a desktop review of the state of climate change parameters, namely rainfall and river flow over the Peninsular Malaysia for the 2041-2050 projection period. Analysis of the results from the models shows there will be a substantial increase in mean monthly precipitation over the North East Coastal region from historical 259.5 mm to 281.5 mm, from 289.0 mm to 299.0 mm and 221.8 mm to 239.5 mm over Terengganu and Kelantan, respectively. Meanwhile, for river flow projection, it will be an expected increase in interannual and intraseasonal variability with increased hydrologic extremes （higher high flows, and lower low flows） at Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu, and Kedah watersheds in the future.

STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCING SYSTEMATIC ERRORS ON MONTHLY REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL FORECAST

A nested-model system is constructed by embedding the regional climate model RegCM3 into a general circulation model for monthly-scale regional climate forecast over East China. The systematic errors are formulated for the region on the basis of 10-yr (1991-2000) results of the nested-model system, and of the datasets of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the temperature analysis of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), U.S.A., which are then used for correcting the original forecast by the system for the period 2001-2005. After the assessment of the original and corrected forecasts for monthly precipitation and surface air temperature, it is found that the corrected forecast is apparently better than the original, suggesting that the approach can be applied for improving monthly-scale regional climate dynamical forecast.