During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale ...During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the north.Thus,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO activity.In the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2018YFC1505804]
文摘During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the north.Thus,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO activity.In the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.
