保险资金频繁举牌面临的风险及对策研究

随着"资产配置荒"时代的到来,当前资本市场低估值、高股息率的蓝筹股成了险资抢筹的对象。继安邦系的狂澜席卷民生银行、金地集团、金融街,国寿、人保、泰康人寿、新华人寿大举进军医疗领域,阳光保险、天安财险、华夏人寿逐鹿房地产市场之后,宝能系的前海人寿在2015年底更是掀起了声势浩大的抢筹万科A强劲之风,引起了投资人对大股东股权之争的热议。本文在分析了资本市场进攻的路径及相关的投资逻辑后,就险资举牌的风险等问题进行深入的探讨,提出相关的风险应对之策。

险资在资本市场频举牌的风险及对策研究

随着"资产配置荒"时代的到来,当前资本市场低估值、高股息率的蓝筹股成了险资抢筹的对象。继安邦系的狂澜席卷民生银行、金地集团、金融街,国寿、人保、泰康人寿、新华人寿大举进军医疗领域,阳光保险、天安财险、华夏人寿逐鹿房地产市场之后,宝能系的前海人寿在2015年底更是声势浩大的抢筹万科A,引起了投资人对大股东股权之争的沸议。本文在分析了资本市场进攻的路径及相关的投资逻辑后,就险资举牌的风险等问题进行深入的探讨,提出相关的风险应对之策。

Investment risk analysis of China's wind power industry based on pre-assessment matrix

Wind energy is a clean and sustainable energy, and wind power does not rely on fossil fuels. So there is no fuel price risk, and it, of course, does not include the environmental costs, such as carbon emissions. Because of these unique advantages, wind power has gradually become an important part of the strategy of sustainable development in China. Now with the growing voices on global greenhouse gas emission reduction, and as a clean and efficient energy, wind power has huge potential in combating climate change, energy security pressures and the needs for energy. Wind power in China began to develop from the 1980s. In the first 20 years, the speed of development was slow; but since 2004, it has had an extremely rapid growth.This paper, in order to study the development mechanism of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry, investigated and analyzed the status quo of wind power industry in China, and then found that （1） the development trend of wind power industry in China appears exponential growth; （2） China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s installed capacity of wind power is still smaller than that os some other countries; （3） new subsidy policies bring developing opportunities to wind power industry in China; （4） the sectors of wind power industry are in unbalanced growing; （5） the owners of proposed wind farms are too optimistic though the built wind farm had many problems. In addition, by using the methodology of Game Theory, this paper has also constructed the matrix of pre-assessing risks of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry to further discuss the potential risk factors within China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry as risk factors of wind farm construction, risk factors of production of wind turbines, risk factors of parts and components manufacturing industry under risk indicators like R＆amp;amp;amp;amp;D, patents, the domestic policy, the international policy, the quality of products and the market regulation, in order to provide a scientific assessment and self-assessment tool for investors or implementers, and also to promote the further development of the wind power industry.

Empirical study on mutual fund objective classification

Mutual funds are usually classified on the basis of their objectives. If the activities of mutual funds are consistent with their stated objectives, investors may look at the latter as signals of their risks and incomes. This work analyzes mutual fund objective classification in China by statistical methods of distance analysis and discriminant analysis; and examines whether the stated investment objectives of mutual funds adequately represent their attributes to investors. That is, if mutual funds adhere to their stated objectives, attributes must be heterogeneous between investment objective groups and homogeneous within them. Our conclusion is to some degree, the group of optimized exponential funds is heterogeneous to other groups. As a whole, there exist no significant differences between different objective groups; and 50% of mutual funds are not consistent with their objective groups.

A dynamic decision model for portfolio investment and assets management

This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory and Sharpe’s rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institu- tional or individual investor can combine Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe’s rule and Value-at-Risk (VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the gen- eralized Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe’s rule improve decision making for investment.

Evaluating the Performance of Investment Funds in Turkey

It is important to determine the most appropriate levels of risk and return for small investors. For that purpose, the investment funds are very important tools to create a portfolio for small investors, to deploy the potential risks in optimal proportions, and to direct investors. In this study, the performance of 83 pieces of investment funds will be evaluated which are treated in Turkey dates from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2012 with performance evaluation methods such as Sharpe, Modigliani （M2） that is based on the standard deviation, and Treynor, T2, Jensen that is based on systematic risk （beta）, and the highest and lowest performance investment funds will be presented. The aim of the study is to examine the success of the investment fund managers whether they could estimate the course of the market well or not regarding time period. The empirical results show that the investors who invest on the funds that have negative risk premium by investing in the investment funds getting under the risk cannot get more excess return than getting the return from the risk-free interest rate as treasury bills. The result implies that it could be said that the systematic and total risks of all investment funds are low and they are not sensitive to the developments in the market, and thus, regarding funds could be called as conservative funds.

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of the Performance of the Global Private Equity Funds Markets

Over the last decade, the private equity （PE） industry, primarily venture capital and leveraged buyout investments, has matured massively. Consequently, public interest towards that particular asset class has increased rapidly. This study seeks to empirically assess the determinants of private equity funds＇ （PEFs） performance around the world. The study comprises a panel data of 103 publicly traded PEFs globally for the period of 2007-2013. Generalized least squares （GLS） technique is employed to regress the explanatory variables. The objective is accentuated on the major contributing factors that make a PEF successful. The analysis, in this paper, examines the effect of fund size, investment size, geographical focus, and industrial specialization on return. The empirical results provide evidence that： （1） Fund size and industrial specialization were observed to have an insignificant influence on the funds＇ returns in our panels; （2） Investment size is positively related to fund performance, indicating that larger deal sizes exhibited superior performance level; and （3） Geographical focus exhibited a negative association with fund performance, leading to the conclusion that limited geographical deployment of funds or absence of market diversification resulted in a fall in funds＇ returns. Consequently, to proxy for return of funds, stock prices of listed PEFs under LPEQ listings were employed.

THE INVESTMENT RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A SURFACE MINE

It is stipulated in the China national document, named'The Economical Appraisal Methods for Construction Projects' that dynamic analysis should dominate the project economical appraisal methods. This paper has set up a dynamic investment forecast model for Yuanbaoshan Surface Coal Mine. Based on this model, the investment reliability using simulation and analytic methods has been analysed, and the probability that the designed internal rate of return can reach 8.4%, from economic points of view, have been also studied.

Rationality and Risk Management of the Basic Old-age Insurance Fund Invested in the Capital Market

With the accelerated development of population aging, the pressure to pay for the future pension fund in our country is increasing. Affected by many factors, such as investment limits, inflation and interest rate cut, the rate of return on investment is very low. The introduction of the new policy allows the basic pension fund to enter the capital market, which is of great significance to improve the rate of return on investment, ease the pressure of capital gap, and promote the healthy development of the capital market. This paper makes a deep analysis of the rationality of the basic endowment insurance fund entering the market, and then puts forward some suggestions to avoid the risk of the pension market.

The Association Between Corporate Governance Mechanisms and Stock Investment Risk： Empirical Evidence From Thailand

This study examines the association between corporate governance mechanisms （i.e., internal corporate governance, ownership structure, and external corporate govemance） and stock investment risk （i.e., idiosyncratic risk, systematic risk, and total risk of non-financial listed firms in Thailand in 2007）. The multiple regression analysis is employed to test the hypotheses, and the results suggest that firms with higher market power have lower systematic risk. It implies that firms with higher market power can reduce the unavoidable risk when compared with firms that have lower market power. Firms with more media coverage will have higher systematic risk, which indicates that firms which publish more news will have higher unavoidable risk. This research may be the first to provide the evidence of the association between corporate govemance mechanisms and stock investment risk. Interestingly still, this study has utilized the data of Thailand, which is an emerging market economy with a capital market structure different from those of the developed market economies, and the results of this study are anticipated to be applicable to other similar studies in other emerging market economies.

The Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech Investment Project

The agricultural high-teeh investment project （AHIP） is eharaeterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agrtcultral projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity, analysis and probability ore defer. Therefore; this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.

Risk and Regulation of Chinese Online Investment Products

The emergence of Yu＇E Bao and the like provides Chinese investors with a new and flexible investment option. Such new investment instrument forces up the cost of capital of local banks and also takes away the market share from them. Yu＇E Bao has allocated most investments in inter-bank money market due to the liquidity concerns. This study investigates Yu＇E Bao＇s portfolio allocation and potential risk, and also provides policy implications for regulators. The research findings suggest that regulators should issue more provisions to further regulate the operation of online investment products and keep the liquidity risk under control, i.e. require money market funds to hold more capital in reserve on a gradual basis. By examining the case of Yu＇E Bao, a new online investment product in China, this study sheds light on the recent financial development and reform of China.

A Prey- Predator Model for Venture Capital Investment

The Rosenzweig-Macarthur Model is used to partially explain Venture Capital investment cycles. Investment opportunities and the experience of the investors, represent the prey and predator respectively. Stability analysis with respect to the interior equilibrium point is performed and dynamics of the system are investigated using numerical simulations and results are presented. The model shows that parameter variation affects the stability of the system and it experiences bifurcations. The results show that stability analysis is useful to provide a Venture Capitalist with the stability ranges of parameters in the system, to improve the quality of the investment process.

Research on Tax Preference Policy of Venture Capital

In the last few decades, the economy increased rapidly, but the rapid growth is at the cost of high consumption of resources and high pollution of environment. It is imperative to transform the economic growth pattern. Tax policy relating to venture capital is very important to build innovative country and encourage the development of venture capital. Based on the background, the paper researches the tax preference policy of venture capital in developed countries and in our country, and draws relevant conclusions.

Optimal Investment Problem for an Insurer and a Reinsurer

This paper studies the optimal investment problem for an insurer and a reinsurer. The basic claim process is assumed to follow a Brownian motion with drift and the insurer can purchase proportional reinsurance from the reinsurer. The insurer and the reinsurer are allowed to invest in a risk-free asset and a risky asset. Moreover, the authors consider the correlation between the claim process and the price process of the risky asset. The authors first study the optimization problem of maximizing the expected exponential utility of terminal wealth for the insurer. Then with the optimal reinsurance strategy chosen by the insurer, the authors consider two optimization problems for the reinsurer： The problem of maximizing the expected exponential utility of terminal wealth and the problem of minimizing the ruin probability. By solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, the authors derive the optimal reinsurance and investment strategies, explicitly. Finally, the authors illustrate the equality of the reinsurer＇s optimal investment strategies under the two cases.

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT WITH MULTIPLE RISKY ASSETS UNDER SHORT-SELLING PROHIBITION IN A PERIODIC ENVIRONMENT

In this paper, the surplus process is assumed to be a periodic risk model and the insurer is allowed to invest in multiple risky assets described by the Black-Scholes market model. Under shortselling prohibition, the authors consider the optimal investment from an insurer＇s point of view by maximizing the adjustment coefficent and the expected exponential utility of wealth at one period, respectively. It is shown that the optimal strategies of both of optimization problems are to invest a fixed amount of money in each risky asset.

Pricing Catastrophe Bond by Esscher Transform

This paper developed a model for pricing catastrophe bond whose trigger is loss index. In the model Esscher transform which is a facility usually used in actuarial science now provides an easy way to calculate Radon-Nikodym derivative so that the whole pricing process becomes easier to understand. At the end of this paper we use this model to price a China typhoon catastrophe bond which is also designed by us.

The Analyses of Risk Premium and the Model Revisions About Capital Asset Pricing Models

The pricing theories of capital assets are the principal part in the modern financial theories. Presently, the capital asset pricing model and the arbitrage pricing theory, including their evolutional forms, all don＇t embody the premium of non-system risks and non-factor risks. This paper analyses the risk reward of traditional capital assets pricing models, revises the traditional capital assets pricing models, and advances the revised models of capital assets pricing theories basing on full-risk reward.

Optimal Investment with Multiple Risky Assets for an Insurer with Modified Periodic Risk Process

This paper considers the optimal investment problem for an insurer in the sense of maximizing the adjustment coefficient of the risk process.The authors propose a modified periodic risk model in which the periodic risk process is perturbed by a standard Brownian motion.The insurer can invest in multiple risky assets and one risk-free asset and the correlations between the risky assets and the risk process are considered.Optimal strategy is obtained explicitly,which is a function of time and related to the risk process.The effects of market parameters on the optimal strategy are discussed and a numerical example is also given.