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土石坝漫顶失事模糊随机风险分析 被引量:3
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作者 许建 《水利建设与管理》 2015年第11期66-68,74,共4页
目前极端气候频发,土石坝漫顶失事事件时有发生。本文针对超标准洪水作用下土石坝漫顶失事事件发生问题,研究了随机风险率计算的蒙特卡罗方法,筒述了其求解过程,并利用可靠度的知识,引入模糊因子来对漫顶失事的模糊随机风险进行建模分... 目前极端气候频发,土石坝漫顶失事事件时有发生。本文针对超标准洪水作用下土石坝漫顶失事事件发生问题,研究了随机风险率计算的蒙特卡罗方法,筒述了其求解过程,并利用可靠度的知识,引入模糊因子来对漫顶失事的模糊随机风险进行建模分析。结果表明,该思路可行。随着超高临界值Z的增大,对降低土石坝漫顶破坏风险率的改善效果明显。从其安全判别分析方法和预测结果来看,该方法判别正确率较高,从而可以较科学地指导土石坝漫顶失事随机风险分析模型,有效减少土石坝漫顶失事事件的发生。 展开更多
关键词 土石坝 漫顶失事 模糊因子 随机风险分析
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CONTINUOUS AUXILIARY COVARIATE IN ADDITIVE HAZARDS REGRESSION FOR SURVIVAL DATA 被引量:3
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作者 SHI Xiaoping LIU Yanyan WU Yuanshan 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2014年第6期1247-1262,共16页
This paper considers the additive hazards iliary covariate information to improve the efficiency regression analysis by utilizing continuous aux- of the statistical inference when the primary covariate is ascertained ... This paper considers the additive hazards iliary covariate information to improve the efficiency regression analysis by utilizing continuous aux- of the statistical inference when the primary covariate is ascertained only for a randomly selected subsample. The authors construct a martingale based estimating equation for the regression parameter and establish the asymptotic consistency and normality of the resultant estimators. Simulation study shows that the proposed method can greatly improve the efficiency compared with the estimator which discards the auxiliary covariate information in a variety of settings. A real example is also provided as an illustration. 展开更多
关键词 Additive hazards regression continuous auxiliary covariate estimating equation kernelsmoothing survival analysis.
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