Stochastic modeling techniques have been widely applied to oil-gas reservoir lithofacies. Markov chain simulation~ however~ is still under development~ mainly because of the difficulties in reasonably defining conditi...Stochastic modeling techniques have been widely applied to oil-gas reservoir lithofacies. Markov chain simulation~ however~ is still under development~ mainly because of the difficulties in reasonably defining conditional probabilities for multi-dimensional Markov chains and determining transition probabilities for horizontal strike and dip directions. The aim of this work is to solve these problems. Firstly~ the calculation formulae of conditional probabilities for multi-dimensional Markov chain models are proposed under the full independence and conditional independence assumptions. It is noted that multi-dimensional Markov models based on the conditional independence assumption are reasonable because these models avoid the small-class underestimation problem. Then~ the methods for determining transition probabilities are given. The vertical transition probabilities are obtained by computing the transition frequencies from drilling data~ while the horizontal transition probabilities are estimated by using well data and the elongation ratios according to Walther＇s law. Finally~ these models are used to simulate the reservoir lithofacies distribution of Tahe oilfield in China. The results show that the conditional independence method performs better than the full independence counterpart in maintaining the true percentage composition and reproducing lithofacies spatial features.展开更多
AIM:To compare the impact of carbon dioxide(CO2) and air insufflation on patient tolerance/safety in deeply sedated patients undergoing colonoscopy.METHODS:Patients referred for colonoscopy were randomized to receive ...AIM:To compare the impact of carbon dioxide(CO2) and air insufflation on patient tolerance/safety in deeply sedated patients undergoing colonoscopy.METHODS:Patients referred for colonoscopy were randomized to receive either CO2 or air insufflation during the procedure.Both the colonoscopist and patient were blinded to the type of gas used.During the procedure,insertion and withdrawal times,caecal intubationrates,total sedation given and capnography readings were recorded.The level of sedation and magnitude of patient discomfort during the procedure was assessed by a nurse using a visual analogue scale(VAS)(0-3).Patients then graded their level of discomfort and abdominal bloating using a similar VAS.Complications during and after the procedure were recorded.RESULTS:A total of 142 patients were randomized with 72 in the air arm and 70 in the CO2 arm.Mean age between the two study groups were similar.Insertion time to the caecum was quicker in the CO2 group at 7.3 min vs 9.9 min with air(P = 0.0083).The average withdrawal times were not significantly different between the two groups.Caecal intubation rates were 94.4% and 100% in the air and CO2 groups respectively(P = 0.012).The level of discomfort assessed by the nurse was 0.69(air) and 0.39(CO2)(P = 0.0155) and by the patient 0.82(air) and 0.46(CO2)(P = 0.0228).The level of abdominal bloating was 0.97(air) and 0.36(CO2)(P = 0.001).Capnography readings trended to be higher in the CO2 group at the commencement,caecal intubation,and conclusion of the procedure,even though this was not significantly different when compared to readings obtained during air insufflation.There were no complications in both arms.CONCLUSION:CO2 insufflation during colonoscopy is more efficacious than air,allowing quicker and better cecal intubation rates.Abdominal discomfort and bloating were significantly less with CO2 insufflation.展开更多
A terrain-following coordinate （a-coordinate） in which the computational form of pressure gradient force （PGF） is two-term （the so-called classic method） has significant PGF errors near steep terrain. Using the ...A terrain-following coordinate （a-coordinate） in which the computational form of pressure gradient force （PGF） is two-term （the so-called classic method） has significant PGF errors near steep terrain. Using the covariant equations of the a-coordinate to create a one-term PGF （the covariant method） can reduce the PGF errors. This study investigates the factors inducing the PGF errors of these two methods, through geometric analysis and idealized experiments. The geometric analysis first demonstrates that the terrain slope and the vertical pressure gradient can induce the PGF errors of the classic method, and then generalize the effect of the terrain slope to the effect of the slope of each vertical layer （φ）. More importantly, a new factor, the direction of PGF （a）, is proposed by the geometric analysis, and the effects of φ and a are quantified by tan φ.tan a. When tan φ.tan a is greater than 1/9 or smaller than -10/9, the two terms of PGF of the classic method are of the same order but opposite in sign, and then the PGF errors of the classic method are large. Finally, the effects of three factors on inducing the PGF errors of the classic method are validated by a series of idealized experiments using various terrain types and pressure fields. The experimental results also demonstrate that the PGF errors of the covariant method are affected little by the three factors.展开更多
Objective To estimate the relative effect of early vs. late tracheotomy on clinical end-points in unselected intensive care unit （ICU） patients undergoing mechanical ventilation. Methods We searched electronic data...Objective To estimate the relative effect of early vs. late tracheotomy on clinical end-points in unselected intensive care unit （ICU） patients undergoing mechanical ventilation. Methods We searched electronic databases （up to February 27, 2013） for both randomized control trials and observational studies satisfying the predefined inclusion criteria.展开更多
In this paper,an electric system with two dichotomous resistors is investigated.It is shown that thissystem can display two stochastic resonances,which are the amplitude of the periodic response as the functions of th...In this paper,an electric system with two dichotomous resistors is investigated.It is shown that thissystem can display two stochastic resonances,which are the amplitude of the periodic response as the functions of thetwo dichotomous resistors strengthes respectively.In the limits of Gaussian white noise and shot white noise(i.e.,thetwo noises are both Gaussian white noise or shot white noise),no phenomena of resonance appear.By further study,we find that when the system is with three or more multiplicative telegraphic noises,there are three or more stochasticresonances.展开更多
Traditional gust load factor(GLF)method,inertial wind load(IWL)method and tri-component method(LRC+IWL)cannot accurately analyze the wind-induced responses of super-large cooling towers,so the real combination formula...Traditional gust load factor(GLF)method,inertial wind load(IWL)method and tri-component method(LRC+IWL)cannot accurately analyze the wind-induced responses of super-large cooling towers,so the real combination formulas of fluctuating wind-induced responses and equivalent static wind loads(ESWLSs)were derived based on structural dynamics and random vibration theory.The consistent coupled method(CCM)was presented to compensate the coupled term between background and resonant response.Taking the super-large cooling tower(H=215 m)of nuclear power plant in Jiangxi Province,China,which is the highest and largest in China,as the example,based on modified equivalent beam-net design method,the aero-elastic model for simultaneous pressure and vibration measurement of super-large cooling tower is firstly carried out.Then,combining wind tunnel test and CCM,the effects of self-excited force on the surface pressures and wind-induced responses are discussed,and the wind-induced response characteristics of background component,resonant component,coupled term between background and resonant response,fluctuating responses,and wind vibration coefficients are discussed.It can be concluded that wind-induced response mechanism must be understood to direct the wind resistant design for super-large cooling towers.展开更多
Objective： The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy in alleviating the endotracheal tube related discomfort and the safetyof intracufflidocaine （in different forms） with air and/or normal saline （NS） dur...Objective： The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy in alleviating the endotracheal tube related discomfort and the safetyof intracufflidocaine （in different forms） with air and/or normal saline （NS） during general anesthesia with tracheal intubation. Methods： Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed and Embase were searched for relevant studies. Thirteen randomized, controlled trials involving 1 010 patients were ultimately identified. A meta-analysis of all randomized controlled trials fulfilling the predefined criteria was performed. Random-effect model and subgroup studies were used when significant heterogeneity existed among those trials. Results： Compared with air and NS, intracufflidocaine could significantly alleviate the severity of sore throat at different time points （15min, 30min, lh, 2h, 3h, 6h, 12h and 24h aiter extubation） and the occurrence of cough, restlessness, postoperative nausea and vomiting, dysphonia and hoarseness. Besides intracufflidocaine brought about a significant prolongation of spontaneous ventilation time. It was worth mentioning that, compared withlidocaine or its hydrochloride form, alkalinized lidocainewas much more efficient in reducing the severity of sore throat and prolonging spontaneous ventilation time. Conclusion： The present meta-analysis indicates that intracuttlidocaine can significantly improve endotracheal tube tolerance and this improvement can be strengthened by alkalinization of lidocaine.展开更多
Venous thromboembolism （VTE） is the commonest cause of preventable death in hospitalized patients. Elderly patients have higher risk of VTE because of the high prevalence of predisposing co-morbidities and acute ill...Venous thromboembolism （VTE） is the commonest cause of preventable death in hospitalized patients. Elderly patients have higher risk of VTE because of the high prevalence of predisposing co-morbidities and acute illnesses. Clinical diagnosis of VTE in the elderly patient is particularly difficult and, as such, adequate VTE prophylaxis is of pivotal importance in reducing the mortality and morbidities of VTE. Omission of VTE prophylaxis is, however, very common despite continuous education. A simple way to overcome this problem is to implement universal VTE prophylaxis for all hospitalized elderly patients instead of selective prophylaxis for some patients only according to individual＇ s risk of VTE. Although pharmacological VTE prophylaxis is effective for most patients, a high prevalence of renal impairment and drug interactions in the hospitalized elderly patients suggests that a multimodality approach may be more appropriate. Mechanical VTE prophylaxis, including calf and thigh compression devices and/or an inferior vena cava filter, are often underutilized in hospitalized elderly patients who are at high-risk of bleeding and VTE. Because pneumatic compression devices and thigh length stockings are virtually risk free, mechanical VTE prophylaxis may allow early or immediate implementation of VTE prophylaxis for all hospitalized elderly patients, regardless of their bleeding and VTE risk. Although the cost-effectiveness of this Multimodality Universal STat （＇MUST＇） VTE prophylaxis approach for hospitalized elderly patients remains uncertain, this strategy appears to offer some advantages over the traditional ＇selective and single-modal＇ VTE prophylaxis approach, which often becomes ＇hit or miss＇ or not implemented promptly in many hospitalized elderly patients. A large clustered randomized controlled trial is, however, needed to assess whether early, multimodality, universal VTE prophylaxis can improve important clinical outcomes of hospitalized elderly patients.展开更多
Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent o...Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.展开更多
基金Project（2016YFB0503601） supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China Project（41730105） supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Stochastic modeling techniques have been widely applied to oil-gas reservoir lithofacies. Markov chain simulation~ however~ is still under development~ mainly because of the difficulties in reasonably defining conditional probabilities for multi-dimensional Markov chains and determining transition probabilities for horizontal strike and dip directions. The aim of this work is to solve these problems. Firstly~ the calculation formulae of conditional probabilities for multi-dimensional Markov chain models are proposed under the full independence and conditional independence assumptions. It is noted that multi-dimensional Markov models based on the conditional independence assumption are reasonable because these models avoid the small-class underestimation problem. Then~ the methods for determining transition probabilities are given. The vertical transition probabilities are obtained by computing the transition frequencies from drilling data~ while the horizontal transition probabilities are estimated by using well data and the elongation ratios according to Walther＇s law. Finally~ these models are used to simulate the reservoir lithofacies distribution of Tahe oilfield in China. The results show that the conditional independence method performs better than the full independence counterpart in maintaining the true percentage composition and reproducing lithofacies spatial features.
文摘AIM:To compare the impact of carbon dioxide(CO2) and air insufflation on patient tolerance/safety in deeply sedated patients undergoing colonoscopy.METHODS:Patients referred for colonoscopy were randomized to receive either CO2 or air insufflation during the procedure.Both the colonoscopist and patient were blinded to the type of gas used.During the procedure,insertion and withdrawal times,caecal intubationrates,total sedation given and capnography readings were recorded.The level of sedation and magnitude of patient discomfort during the procedure was assessed by a nurse using a visual analogue scale(VAS)(0-3).Patients then graded their level of discomfort and abdominal bloating using a similar VAS.Complications during and after the procedure were recorded.RESULTS:A total of 142 patients were randomized with 72 in the air arm and 70 in the CO2 arm.Mean age between the two study groups were similar.Insertion time to the caecum was quicker in the CO2 group at 7.3 min vs 9.9 min with air(P = 0.0083).The average withdrawal times were not significantly different between the two groups.Caecal intubation rates were 94.4% and 100% in the air and CO2 groups respectively(P = 0.012).The level of discomfort assessed by the nurse was 0.69(air) and 0.39(CO2)(P = 0.0155) and by the patient 0.82(air) and 0.46(CO2)(P = 0.0228).The level of abdominal bloating was 0.97(air) and 0.36(CO2)(P = 0.001).Capnography readings trended to be higher in the CO2 group at the commencement,caecal intubation,and conclusion of the procedure,even though this was not significantly different when compared to readings obtained during air insufflation.There were no complications in both arms.CONCLUSION:CO2 insufflation during colonoscopy is more efficacious than air,allowing quicker and better cecal intubation rates.Abdominal discomfort and bloating were significantly less with CO2 insufflation.
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[973 Program,grant number 2015CB954102]National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers41305095 and 41175064]
文摘A terrain-following coordinate （a-coordinate） in which the computational form of pressure gradient force （PGF） is two-term （the so-called classic method） has significant PGF errors near steep terrain. Using the covariant equations of the a-coordinate to create a one-term PGF （the covariant method） can reduce the PGF errors. This study investigates the factors inducing the PGF errors of these two methods, through geometric analysis and idealized experiments. The geometric analysis first demonstrates that the terrain slope and the vertical pressure gradient can induce the PGF errors of the classic method, and then generalize the effect of the terrain slope to the effect of the slope of each vertical layer （φ）. More importantly, a new factor, the direction of PGF （a）, is proposed by the geometric analysis, and the effects of φ and a are quantified by tan φ.tan a. When tan φ.tan a is greater than 1/9 or smaller than -10/9, the two terms of PGF of the classic method are of the same order but opposite in sign, and then the PGF errors of the classic method are large. Finally, the effects of three factors on inducing the PGF errors of the classic method are validated by a series of idealized experiments using various terrain types and pressure fields. The experimental results also demonstrate that the PGF errors of the covariant method are affected little by the three factors.
文摘Objective To estimate the relative effect of early vs. late tracheotomy on clinical end-points in unselected intensive care unit （ICU） patients undergoing mechanical ventilation. Methods We searched electronic databases （up to February 27, 2013） for both randomized control trials and observational studies satisfying the predefined inclusion criteria.
基金supported by SRF for ROCS,SEM,and K.C.Wong Magna Fund in Ningbo University
文摘In this paper,an electric system with two dichotomous resistors is investigated.It is shown that thissystem can display two stochastic resonances,which are the amplitude of the periodic response as the functions of thetwo dichotomous resistors strengthes respectively.In the limits of Gaussian white noise and shot white noise(i.e.,thetwo noises are both Gaussian white noise or shot white noise),no phenomena of resonance appear.By further study,we find that when the system is with three or more multiplicative telegraphic noises,there are three or more stochasticresonances.
基金Projects(50978203,51208254)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(BK2012390)supported by Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,ChinaProject supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions,China
文摘Traditional gust load factor(GLF)method,inertial wind load(IWL)method and tri-component method(LRC+IWL)cannot accurately analyze the wind-induced responses of super-large cooling towers,so the real combination formulas of fluctuating wind-induced responses and equivalent static wind loads(ESWLSs)were derived based on structural dynamics and random vibration theory.The consistent coupled method(CCM)was presented to compensate the coupled term between background and resonant response.Taking the super-large cooling tower(H=215 m)of nuclear power plant in Jiangxi Province,China,which is the highest and largest in China,as the example,based on modified equivalent beam-net design method,the aero-elastic model for simultaneous pressure and vibration measurement of super-large cooling tower is firstly carried out.Then,combining wind tunnel test and CCM,the effects of self-excited force on the surface pressures and wind-induced responses are discussed,and the wind-induced response characteristics of background component,resonant component,coupled term between background and resonant response,fluctuating responses,and wind vibration coefficients are discussed.It can be concluded that wind-induced response mechanism must be understood to direct the wind resistant design for super-large cooling towers.
文摘Objective： The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy in alleviating the endotracheal tube related discomfort and the safetyof intracufflidocaine （in different forms） with air and/or normal saline （NS） during general anesthesia with tracheal intubation. Methods： Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed and Embase were searched for relevant studies. Thirteen randomized, controlled trials involving 1 010 patients were ultimately identified. A meta-analysis of all randomized controlled trials fulfilling the predefined criteria was performed. Random-effect model and subgroup studies were used when significant heterogeneity existed among those trials. Results： Compared with air and NS, intracufflidocaine could significantly alleviate the severity of sore throat at different time points （15min, 30min, lh, 2h, 3h, 6h, 12h and 24h aiter extubation） and the occurrence of cough, restlessness, postoperative nausea and vomiting, dysphonia and hoarseness. Besides intracufflidocaine brought about a significant prolongation of spontaneous ventilation time. It was worth mentioning that, compared withlidocaine or its hydrochloride form, alkalinized lidocainewas much more efficient in reducing the severity of sore throat and prolonging spontaneous ventilation time. Conclusion： The present meta-analysis indicates that intracuttlidocaine can significantly improve endotracheal tube tolerance and this improvement can be strengthened by alkalinization of lidocaine.
文摘Venous thromboembolism （VTE） is the commonest cause of preventable death in hospitalized patients. Elderly patients have higher risk of VTE because of the high prevalence of predisposing co-morbidities and acute illnesses. Clinical diagnosis of VTE in the elderly patient is particularly difficult and, as such, adequate VTE prophylaxis is of pivotal importance in reducing the mortality and morbidities of VTE. Omission of VTE prophylaxis is, however, very common despite continuous education. A simple way to overcome this problem is to implement universal VTE prophylaxis for all hospitalized elderly patients instead of selective prophylaxis for some patients only according to individual＇ s risk of VTE. Although pharmacological VTE prophylaxis is effective for most patients, a high prevalence of renal impairment and drug interactions in the hospitalized elderly patients suggests that a multimodality approach may be more appropriate. Mechanical VTE prophylaxis, including calf and thigh compression devices and/or an inferior vena cava filter, are often underutilized in hospitalized elderly patients who are at high-risk of bleeding and VTE. Because pneumatic compression devices and thigh length stockings are virtually risk free, mechanical VTE prophylaxis may allow early or immediate implementation of VTE prophylaxis for all hospitalized elderly patients, regardless of their bleeding and VTE risk. Although the cost-effectiveness of this Multimodality Universal STat （＇MUST＇） VTE prophylaxis approach for hospitalized elderly patients remains uncertain, this strategy appears to offer some advantages over the traditional ＇selective and single-modal＇ VTE prophylaxis approach, which often becomes ＇hit or miss＇ or not implemented promptly in many hospitalized elderly patients. A large clustered randomized controlled trial is, however, needed to assess whether early, multimodality, universal VTE prophylaxis can improve important clinical outcomes of hospitalized elderly patients.
文摘Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.
