Application of discrete choice model in trip mode structure forecast:a case study of Bengbu

In order to find the main factors that influence the urban traffic structure,a relational model between the travelers＇ characteristics and the trip mode choice is built.The data of urban residents＇ characteristics are obtained from statistical data,while the trip mode split data is collected through a trip survey in Bengbu.In addition,the discrete choice model is adopted to build the functional relationship between the mode choice and the travelers＇ personal characteristics,as well as family characteristics and trip characteristics.The model shows that the relationship between the mode split and the personal,as well as family and trip characteristics is stable and changes little as the time changes.Deduced by the discrete model,the mode split result is relatively accurate and can be feasibly used for trip mode structure forecasts.Furthermore,the proposed model can also contribute to find the key influencing factors on trip mode choice,and restructure or optimize the urban trip mode structure.

多港口区域泊位资源的最优配置与分配

在区域港口发展一体化的背景下,通过调整不同班轮公司的船舶挂靠港口,研究了多港口区域泊位资源的配置与分配问题;为提高泊位利用率,将不同班轮公司组合形成稳定班轮集群,并将多港口区域泊位资源与不同班轮集群之间进行最优匹配,以泊位总数最少和船舶挂靠港口调整最小为目标建立集划分模型,设计了基于排队论和合作博弈理论的三阶段优化方法;以珠江三角洲区域的3个港口(中国香港港、盐田港和蛇口港)和4个班轮公司的船舶挂靠该区域多港口为例进行算例分析。数值分析结果表明:三阶段优化方法可以使这4个班轮公司的船舶总平均排队长度由23.569 1艘减少至22.930 2艘,即多港口区域的泊位资源整合可以有效缓解港口拥挤和船舶排队;3个港口服务4个班轮公司船舶需配置的泊位数由31减少至27,说明多港口区域的泊位资源的合理配置与分配,不仅可以提高泊位资源利用率,也可以减少不同港口的泊位资源的重复建设;从泊位服务船舶数量的角度,服务不同的班轮集群的船舶对港口的吸引力不同,说明港口可以选择合适的班轮公司作为服务对象来提高泊位运营效率。