长江上游六流域强降水面雨量特征分析

为满足长江流域水文气象预报服务需要,利用2001～2011年气象站点逐日雨量实况资料,以长江上游岷沱江、嘉陵江、乌江、干流宜宾至重庆、干流重庆至万县、干流万县至宜昌流域强降水面雨量为研究对象,研究其频次分布、极值分布特征。结果表明:长江上游六大流域强降水面雨量出现频次具有明显的季节变化和年际变化特征;冬季频次几乎为零,夏季频次最多,春季猛增,秋季陡降;不同流域强降水面雨量等级分布差异较大、极值分布差异明显;重庆至万县、万县至宜昌两个流域月极大值明显大于其他流域,岷沱江流域月极大值明显小于其他流域。

都汶线太平驿沟泥石流雨量特征及其发展趋势研究

采用现场调查结合遥感解译的方法,在收集2008—2011年都汶公路沿线17次典型泥石流降雨资料的基础上,分析太平驿沟泥石流发育特征及降雨特征,研究降雨条件变化规律及发展趋势。研究表明:太平驿沟泥石流降雨条件整体表现出雨量大、历时长、激发雨强低的特点,前期累计雨量与激发雨强均呈逐年增加趋势,再次暴发整体大规模泥石流可能性低,后期泥石流防治工程应重点对支沟进行拦挡和清淤。

湖南省南部水库强降水面雨量特征分析

文章利用湖南南部水库流域内2001~2010年气象站点逐日雨量实况资料,对双牌水库流域、东江水库流域的强降水日面雨量的频次分布、极值分布特征进行统计分析。结果表明,流域强降水日面雨量出现频次具有明显的季节变化和年际变化规律特征:冬季频次最少,夏季频次最多,春季急增,秋季急降;相邻的流域强降水面雨量等级分布存在差异、极值分布趋势相近,流域月极大值也有差异。

四川省降雨灾情时空分布及其与雨量相关特征分析

利用四川省2002—2020年降雨灾情数据和156个国家气象观测站及5727个区域气象观测站逐日、逐小时降雨资料,分析四川省降雨灾情时空分布及其与雨量特征的联系。结果表明:四川省近年来降雨灾情数量增长明显,盆地西部、南部灾情数量最多,密度最大,凉山州和盆地东北部死亡人数最多。灾害主要发生在6—9月,灾情分布有从盆地东北部、南部向西部发展,最后到东北部的趋势。盆地在有大暴雨出现时灾害发生可能性最大,致灾频率50%以上,暴雨致灾频率20%~40%;攀西地区暴雨出现时致灾频率20%~30%;川西高原暴雨天气过程较少,大雨出现时致灾频率最大,为10%~30%。最大小时雨量盆地区在10 mm以下的灾害主要发生在盆南和盆东北,盆西在各个雨量等级范围内占比都较大,攀西地区灾害主要集中在10~40 mm,川西高原为20 mm以下。最大日降雨量小于50 mm的灾害主要分布在盆南,超过300 mm的主要发生在盆西北,50~100 mm以盆南和盆西南为主,攀西地区50~100 mm占比最大,川西高原为25~50 mm。

引发南宁市内涝的暴雨及风场特征

利用南宁市区内中尺度自动站及本站人工站观测降雨资料,分析致涝暴雨的临界雨量。利用实况探空资料重点分析和探讨了环境风场分布与触发机制,得到有益结论,为准确预报、防御内涝灾害提供参考依据。

计算机技术在暴雨统计参数等值线绘制中应用

文章介绍了利用计算机、地理信息系统技术、自主研发软件进行暴雨统计参数处理、频率计算、等值线图绘制,发挥计算机在数据维护管理、科学计算、空间信息分析处理等方面功能和速度优势的同时,采用人机对话方式,根据专家经验检查绘图过程中每项成果的合理性。

北江流域清城洪水水位短期预报方法

对北江流域面雨量分布特征与洪水组合特性进行了研究,用非线性曲线的数据拟合和卡尔曼滤波方法,建立了面雨量与洪水水位预报系统,为北江防汛部门提供准确的降水和河流水位预报。

Climate as the Early Warning of Outbreaks of Leptospirosis in the District of Sampang Madura Island Indonesia

In Indonesia, most transmission of leptospirosis occurs through the rat under conditions of high rainfall or flooding. Sampang is endemic leptospirosis, during March-May 2013, there were 55 patients with 8 of them died. The purpose of this study was to analyze risk factors for outbreaks leptospirosis by climatic factors. Study is cross-sectional design of variable causes or risks that occur due to the object of research are measured simultaneously. The results showed that the distribution of events is based on epidemiological characteristics of leptospirosis in districts Sampang both rainy and dry season. Analysis of climatic factors show support to the continuation of leptospirosis whose temperatures ranged from 29.35 ~C-30.62 ~C, humidity range between 63.4%-80.5%. Rainfall ranges from 183-190 ram. Incidence of leptospirosis in Sampang shows the distribution of leptospirosis cases from 18 subdistricts, 14 subdistriets are at risk of the occurrence of leptospirosis. Results obtained rat trapping species caught in the neighborhood residential home patients were mice （Rattus tanezumi and Rattus novergicus） and the identification of the leptospira in rat urine sewers rat positive standing of the potential risk of leptospirosis in the community. The conclusions are climatic conditions, rainfall remarkable effecting on the incidence of leptospirosis.

Climate Characters of Summer Drought in Mountain City and the Effect on Flowers and Trees

[Objective] The aim was to provide references for development of industries engaging in flowers and trees in Beipei area in Chongqing. [Method] The occurring trend, intensity trend of summer drought, relationship of intensity with rainfall and extremely highest temperature, occurring trend during initial period of summer drought and the effects in mountain cities were analyzed, based on information on lasting period, rainfall, average temperature, extremely highest temperature of sum- mer drought in Beipei area in mountain cities during 1981-2010 and, growth condi- tion and phenological phenomena of Michelia champaca during 2005-2007. [Result] The occurring probability of summer drought in mountain cities was 57% and the probabilities of light, moderate, heavy and extreme drought were 30%, 10%, 7% and 10%; intensity of summer drought was none of linear relation with rainfall and ex- tremely highest temperature. In summer drought, daily average rainfall was less than 0.9 ram; extremely highest temperature was 35.0-45.0 ℃ with probability at 30%; initial period of summer drought was from later June to middle August and of extreme drought was later June-later July; the ending period was early September. During drought, when the extremely highest temperature （〉35.0 ℃） occurred in three days within a Hou, flowers and trees were affected by the hot drought and when the extreme temperature （〉40.0 ℃） occurred in three days within a Hou, the plants were seriously affected. [Conclusion] Based on characters of summer drought, pre- cautions can be taken to reduce effects of summer drought on flowers and trees with the help of weather forecast.