Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. ...Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends （＋0.11℃decade） reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming （＋0.7℃/decade） trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model （SRM） based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamfiow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5%-40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.展开更多
Snowmelt is an important component of any snow-fed river system.The Jhelum River is one such transnational mountain river flowing through India and Pakistan.The basin is minimally glacierized and its discharge is larg...Snowmelt is an important component of any snow-fed river system.The Jhelum River is one such transnational mountain river flowing through India and Pakistan.The basin is minimally glacierized and its discharge is largely governed by seasonal snow cover and snowmelt.Therefore,accurate estimation of seasonal snow cover dynamics and snowmeltinduced runoff is important for sustainable water resource management in the region.The present study looks into spatio-temporal variations of snow cover for past decade and stream flow simulation in the Jhelum River basin.Snow cover extent(SCE) was estimated using MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor imageries.Normalized Difference Snow Index(NDSI) algorithm was used to generate multi-temporal time series snow cover maps.The results indicate large variation in snow cover distribution pattern and decreasing trend in different sub-basins of the Jhelum River.The relationship between SCE-temperature,SCE-discharge and discharge-precipitation was analyzed for different seasons and shows strong correlation.For streamflow simulation of the entire Jhelum basin Snow melt Runoff Model(SRM) used.A good correlation was observed between simulated stream flow and in-situ discharge.The monthly discharge contribution from different sub-basins to the total discharge of the Jhelum River was estimated using a modified version of runoff model based on temperature-index approach developed for small watersheds.Stream power - an indicator of the erosive capability of streams was also calculated for different sub-basins.展开更多
Scattering of surface waves by the edge of a small undulation on a porous bed in an ocean of finite depth, where the free surface has an ice-cover being modelled as an elastic plate of very small thickness, is investi...Scattering of surface waves by the edge of a small undulation on a porous bed in an ocean of finite depth, where the free surface has an ice-cover being modelled as an elastic plate of very small thickness, is investigated within the framework of linearized water wave theory. The effect of surface tension at the surface below the ice-cover is neglected. There exists only one wave number propagating at just below the ice-cover. A perturbation analysis is employed to solve the boundary value problem governed by Laplace＇s equation by a method based on Green＇s integral theorem with the introduction of appropriate Green＇s function and thereby evaluating the reflection and transmission coefficients approximately up to first order. A patch of sinusoidal ripples is considered as an example and the related coefficients are determined.展开更多
Avalanches are one of the most natural hazard in the mountain areas and therefore, identification of avalanche hazard is necessary for planning future development activities. The study area falls under the internation...Avalanches are one of the most natural hazard in the mountain areas and therefore, identification of avalanche hazard is necessary for planning future development activities. The study area falls under the international boundary region which generally covered by the snow(38%) on high altitude regions of the western part of Himalayas. Avalanches are triggered in study area during snowfall resulting in loss of human life, property and moreover the transportation and communication affected by the debris which ultimately delays the relief measures. Therefore in this study three major causative parameters i.e terrain, ground cover and meteorological have been incorporated for the identification of avalanche hazard zones(AHZ) by integrating Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP) method in Geographical Information System(GIS). In the first part of study, avalanche sites have been identified by the criteria related to terrain(slope, aspect and curvature) and ground cover. Weights and ratings to these causative factors and their cumulative effects have been assigned on the basis of experience and knowledge of field. In the second part of the study, single point interpolation and Inverse Distance Weighted(IDW) method has been employed as only one weather station falls in study area. Accordingly, it has been performed to generate the meteorological parameter maps(viz. air temperature and relative humidity) from the field observatories and Automatic Weather Stations(AWS) located at Baaj OP in Uri sector. Finally, the meteorological parameter maps were superimposed on the terrain-based avalanche hazard thematic layers to identify the dynamic avalanche hazard sites. Conventional weighted approach and Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP) method have been implemented for the identification of AHZ that shows approximately 55% area under maximum hazard zone. Further, the results were validated by overlapping the existing registered avalanche sites. The sites were identified through field survey and avalanche data card followed by its delineation from the toposheet(1:50,000 scale). Interestingly study found that 28% area under moderate and maximum AHZ correlated well with registered avalanche sites when they were overlapped. The accuracy for such works can be increased by field survey under favorable weather condition and by adding data from more number of AWS for predicting avalanche hazards in mountainous regions.展开更多
文摘Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends （＋0.11℃decade） reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming （＋0.7℃/decade） trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model （SRM） based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamfiow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5%-40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.
文摘Snowmelt is an important component of any snow-fed river system.The Jhelum River is one such transnational mountain river flowing through India and Pakistan.The basin is minimally glacierized and its discharge is largely governed by seasonal snow cover and snowmelt.Therefore,accurate estimation of seasonal snow cover dynamics and snowmeltinduced runoff is important for sustainable water resource management in the region.The present study looks into spatio-temporal variations of snow cover for past decade and stream flow simulation in the Jhelum River basin.Snow cover extent(SCE) was estimated using MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor imageries.Normalized Difference Snow Index(NDSI) algorithm was used to generate multi-temporal time series snow cover maps.The results indicate large variation in snow cover distribution pattern and decreasing trend in different sub-basins of the Jhelum River.The relationship between SCE-temperature,SCE-discharge and discharge-precipitation was analyzed for different seasons and shows strong correlation.For streamflow simulation of the entire Jhelum basin Snow melt Runoff Model(SRM) used.A good correlation was observed between simulated stream flow and in-situ discharge.The monthly discharge contribution from different sub-basins to the total discharge of the Jhelum River was estimated using a modified version of runoff model based on temperature-index approach developed for small watersheds.Stream power - an indicator of the erosive capability of streams was also calculated for different sub-basins.
文摘Scattering of surface waves by the edge of a small undulation on a porous bed in an ocean of finite depth, where the free surface has an ice-cover being modelled as an elastic plate of very small thickness, is investigated within the framework of linearized water wave theory. The effect of surface tension at the surface below the ice-cover is neglected. There exists only one wave number propagating at just below the ice-cover. A perturbation analysis is employed to solve the boundary value problem governed by Laplace＇s equation by a method based on Green＇s integral theorem with the introduction of appropriate Green＇s function and thereby evaluating the reflection and transmission coefficients approximately up to first order. A patch of sinusoidal ripples is considered as an example and the related coefficients are determined.
文摘Avalanches are one of the most natural hazard in the mountain areas and therefore, identification of avalanche hazard is necessary for planning future development activities. The study area falls under the international boundary region which generally covered by the snow(38%) on high altitude regions of the western part of Himalayas. Avalanches are triggered in study area during snowfall resulting in loss of human life, property and moreover the transportation and communication affected by the debris which ultimately delays the relief measures. Therefore in this study three major causative parameters i.e terrain, ground cover and meteorological have been incorporated for the identification of avalanche hazard zones(AHZ) by integrating Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP) method in Geographical Information System(GIS). In the first part of study, avalanche sites have been identified by the criteria related to terrain(slope, aspect and curvature) and ground cover. Weights and ratings to these causative factors and their cumulative effects have been assigned on the basis of experience and knowledge of field. In the second part of the study, single point interpolation and Inverse Distance Weighted(IDW) method has been employed as only one weather station falls in study area. Accordingly, it has been performed to generate the meteorological parameter maps(viz. air temperature and relative humidity) from the field observatories and Automatic Weather Stations(AWS) located at Baaj OP in Uri sector. Finally, the meteorological parameter maps were superimposed on the terrain-based avalanche hazard thematic layers to identify the dynamic avalanche hazard sites. Conventional weighted approach and Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP) method have been implemented for the identification of AHZ that shows approximately 55% area under maximum hazard zone. Further, the results were validated by overlapping the existing registered avalanche sites. The sites were identified through field survey and avalanche data card followed by its delineation from the toposheet(1:50,000 scale). Interestingly study found that 28% area under moderate and maximum AHZ correlated well with registered avalanche sites when they were overlapped. The accuracy for such works can be increased by field survey under favorable weather condition and by adding data from more number of AWS for predicting avalanche hazards in mountainous regions.
