The potential predictability and skill of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent(SWE)are explored by using a suite of ensemble hindcast experiments with the fourth-generation IAP AGCM(IAP AGCM4)and observations for the...The potential predictability and skill of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent(SWE)are explored by using a suite of ensemble hindcast experiments with the fourth-generation IAP AGCM(IAP AGCM4)and observations for the period 1982–2012.IAP AGCM4 is generally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of Eurasian spring SWE;nevertheless,the model overestimates the SWE over Eurasia,possibly because of positive precipitation biases in wintertime.IAP AGCM4 can successfully capture the long-term trend and leading pattern of Eurasian spring SWE.Additionally,the spring SWE anomalies are generally predictable in many regions over Eurasia,especially at high latitudes;moreover,IAP AGCM4 exhibits a remarkable prediction skill for spring SWE anomalies over Eurasia in many years during 1982 to 2012.In order to reveal the relative impacts of SST anomalies and atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal predictability of Eurasian spring SWE,two additional sets of experiments are carried out.Overall,atmospheric initial anomalies have a dominant role,though the impact of SSTs is not negligible.This study highlights the importance of atmospheric initialization in seasonal climate forecasts of spring SWE anomalies,especially at high latitudes.展开更多
By using daily air temperature and precipitation data, and the weather phenomena data of daily snowfall from 98 meteorological stations over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), this paper performs an "at-risk" eval...By using daily air temperature and precipitation data, and the weather phenomena data of daily snowfall from 98 meteorological stations over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), this paper performs an "at-risk" evaluation on snowfall and accumulated snow over the QTP under current climate situation and future climate warming condition. When rainfall, snowfall, or accumulated snow weather phenomena occur, critical values are determined based on dally air temperature and precipitation for current climate conditions. Air temperature of 0 ℃ is defined as the critical value of temperature for rainfall or snowfall, while 0 ℃ air temperature and 4.0 mm (autumn) or 3.0 mm (spring) snowfall amounts are defined as the critical values for accumulated snowfall. Analyses based on the above critical values disclose that under current climate condition, stations with "at-risk" accumulated snow account for 33% and 36% of all stations, and the "at-risk" snowfall stations reach 78% and 81% in autumn and spring, respectively. Spatially, most stations with "at-risk" accumulated snow are located on the southern and eastern edge of the QTP, and stations with "at-risk" snowfall are also apparent at the northern edge. If the air temperature increases by 2.5 ℃ in 2050, only the snowfall at a few "at-risk" snowfall stations will transform into rainfall, while most "at-risk" accumulated snow stations will face the problem that snowfall is hardly accumulated. Additionally, most stations will become "at-risk" accumulated snow stations, indicating that both the snow depth and the snow cover duration will decline in most areas of the QTP, including a delay of the start date and an advancing of the end date of snow cover.展开更多
Snow data collection systems in the western United States were originally designed to forecast water supply and may be subject to several sources of bias. In addition to climate change and weather modification effects...Snow data collection systems in the western United States were originally designed to forecast water supply and may be subject to several sources of bias. In addition to climate change and weather modification effects, site-specific effects may be introduced from vegetation changes, site physical changes, measurement technique, and sensor changes. This paper examines changes in Utah's snowpack conditions over the past decade compared with all previous measurement years, focusing on the 15 snow courses with the longest observational record within the state of Utah. Although patterns in snowpack data consistent with those that would be expected due to temperature h as greater declines at lower elevations and latitudes--were not identified, snow water equivalent decreased at sites with significant increases in vegetation coverage. Additionally, we provide a list of 22 snow courses in Utah that are best-suited for long-term climate analysis.展开更多
This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipit...This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and snow depth. Results show that annual mean temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.35℃ per decade, most notably in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and in winter. Annual rainfall had no obvious linear trend, while rainy days had a significant decreasing trend. So, the rain intensity increased. High-temperature days had a weak increasing trend, and low-temperature days and cold wave showed significant decreasing trends with rates of 3.9 d per decade and -0.64 times per decade, respectively. Frequency and spatial scope of low-temperature hazard reduced significantly. Warm days and warm nights significantly increased at 1.0 and 2.4 d per decade, while cold days and cold nights decreased significantly at -1.8 and -4.1 d per decade, respectively. The nighttime warming rate was much higher than that for daytime, indicating that nighttime warming had a greater contribution to the overall warming trend than daytime warming. The annual mean wind speed, gale days, and sunshine duration had significant decreasing trends at rates of-0.21 m s-1 per decade, -4.0 d per decade and -43.3 h per decade, respectively. The snow cover onset dates postponed at a rate of 1.2 d per decade, and the snow cover end date advanced at 1.5 d per decade, which leads to shorter snow cover duration by -2.7 d per decade. Meanwhile, the maximum snow depth decreased at -0.52 cm per decade. In addition, the snow cover duration shows a higher correlation with precipitation than with temperature, which suggests that precipitation plays a more important role in maintaining snow cover duration than temperature.展开更多
This paper focuses on obtaining an asymptotic solution for coupled heat and mass transfer problem during the solidification of high water content materials. It is found that a complicated function involved in governin...This paper focuses on obtaining an asymptotic solution for coupled heat and mass transfer problem during the solidification of high water content materials. It is found that a complicated function involved in governing equations can be approached by Taylor polynomials unlimitedly, which leads to the simplification of governing equations. The unknown functions involved in governing equations can then be approximated by Chebyshev polynomials. The coefficients of Chebyshev polynomials are determined and an asymptotic solution is obtained. With the asymptotic solution, the dehydration and freezing fronts of materials are evaluated easily, and are consistent with numerical results obtained by using an explicit finite difference method.展开更多
Accurate quantitative global scale snow water equivalent information is crucial for meteorology, hydrology, water cycle and global change studies, and is of great importance for snow melt-runoff forecast, water resour...Accurate quantitative global scale snow water equivalent information is crucial for meteorology, hydrology, water cycle and global change studies, and is of great importance for snow melt-runoff forecast, water resources management and flood control. With land surface process model and snow process model, the snow water equivalent can be simulated with certain accuracy, with the forcing data as input. However, the snow water equivalent simulated using the snow process models has large uncertainties spatially and temporally, and it may be far from the needs of practical applications. Thus, the large scale snow water equivalent information is mainly from remote sensing. Beginning with the launch of Nimbus-7 satellite, the research on microwave snow water equivalent remote sensing has developed for more than 30 years, researchers have made progress in many aspects, including the electromagnetic scattering and emission modeling, ground and airborne experiments, and inversion algorithms for future global high resolution snow water equivalent remote sensing program. In this paper, the research and progress in the aspects of electromagnetic scattering/emission modeling over snow covered terrain and snow water equivalent inversion algorithm will be summarized.展开更多
A database of Antarctic 10 m firn temperature was constructed using available borehole temperature measurements with data quality control to extend knowledge of Antarctic climate. Slopes from a high-resolution digital...A database of Antarctic 10 m firn temperature was constructed using available borehole temperature measurements with data quality control to extend knowledge of Antarctic climate. Slopes from a high-resolution digital elevation model and the main ice divide were used to delineate main drainage sectors across Antarctica. In each drainage sector, a quantitative relationship between temperature and latitude, longitude and altitude was established using available tim temperature data. Quantitative relationships incorporating other factors affecting Antarctic air temperature such as atmospheric circulation and small-scale to- pography were used to derive a 10-km resolution grid map of surface temperature. The resulting temperature patterns presented a reasonable depiction of both large and small-scale variations in Antarctic 10 m firn temperature. This map is useful for many spatial variation studies, Antarctic ice sheet models, and comparison with satellite-derived temperature data and outputs of atmospheric general circulation models.展开更多
基金This work was jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA19030403]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41575080].
文摘The potential predictability and skill of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent(SWE)are explored by using a suite of ensemble hindcast experiments with the fourth-generation IAP AGCM(IAP AGCM4)and observations for the period 1982–2012.IAP AGCM4 is generally capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of Eurasian spring SWE;nevertheless,the model overestimates the SWE over Eurasia,possibly because of positive precipitation biases in wintertime.IAP AGCM4 can successfully capture the long-term trend and leading pattern of Eurasian spring SWE.Additionally,the spring SWE anomalies are generally predictable in many regions over Eurasia,especially at high latitudes;moreover,IAP AGCM4 exhibits a remarkable prediction skill for spring SWE anomalies over Eurasia in many years during 1982 to 2012.In order to reveal the relative impacts of SST anomalies and atmospheric initial conditions on the seasonal predictability of Eurasian spring SWE,two additional sets of experiments are carried out.Overall,atmospheric initial anomalies have a dominant role,though the impact of SSTs is not negligible.This study highlights the importance of atmospheric initialization in seasonal climate forecasts of spring SWE anomalies,especially at high latitudes.
基金supported by the opening fund from the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences(SKLCS 08-07)the National Postdoctoral Scientific Foundation (20080440342)
文摘By using daily air temperature and precipitation data, and the weather phenomena data of daily snowfall from 98 meteorological stations over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), this paper performs an "at-risk" evaluation on snowfall and accumulated snow over the QTP under current climate situation and future climate warming condition. When rainfall, snowfall, or accumulated snow weather phenomena occur, critical values are determined based on dally air temperature and precipitation for current climate conditions. Air temperature of 0 ℃ is defined as the critical value of temperature for rainfall or snowfall, while 0 ℃ air temperature and 4.0 mm (autumn) or 3.0 mm (spring) snowfall amounts are defined as the critical values for accumulated snowfall. Analyses based on the above critical values disclose that under current climate condition, stations with "at-risk" accumulated snow account for 33% and 36% of all stations, and the "at-risk" snowfall stations reach 78% and 81% in autumn and spring, respectively. Spatially, most stations with "at-risk" accumulated snow are located on the southern and eastern edge of the QTP, and stations with "at-risk" snowfall are also apparent at the northern edge. If the air temperature increases by 2.5 ℃ in 2050, only the snowfall at a few "at-risk" snowfall stations will transform into rainfall, while most "at-risk" accumulated snow stations will face the problem that snowfall is hardly accumulated. Additionally, most stations will become "at-risk" accumulated snow stations, indicating that both the snow depth and the snow cover duration will decline in most areas of the QTP, including a delay of the start date and an advancing of the end date of snow cover.
文摘Snow data collection systems in the western United States were originally designed to forecast water supply and may be subject to several sources of bias. In addition to climate change and weather modification effects, site-specific effects may be introduced from vegetation changes, site physical changes, measurement technique, and sensor changes. This paper examines changes in Utah's snowpack conditions over the past decade compared with all previous measurement years, focusing on the 15 snow courses with the longest observational record within the state of Utah. Although patterns in snowpack data consistent with those that would be expected due to temperature h as greater declines at lower elevations and latitudes--were not identified, snow water equivalent decreased at sites with significant increases in vegetation coverage. Additionally, we provide a list of 22 snow courses in Utah that are best-suited for long-term climate analysis.
基金supported by the Special Climate Change Research Program of China Meteorological Ad-ministration (No.062700s010c01)the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (No.201206024)
文摘This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and snow depth. Results show that annual mean temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.35℃ per decade, most notably in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and in winter. Annual rainfall had no obvious linear trend, while rainy days had a significant decreasing trend. So, the rain intensity increased. High-temperature days had a weak increasing trend, and low-temperature days and cold wave showed significant decreasing trends with rates of 3.9 d per decade and -0.64 times per decade, respectively. Frequency and spatial scope of low-temperature hazard reduced significantly. Warm days and warm nights significantly increased at 1.0 and 2.4 d per decade, while cold days and cold nights decreased significantly at -1.8 and -4.1 d per decade, respectively. The nighttime warming rate was much higher than that for daytime, indicating that nighttime warming had a greater contribution to the overall warming trend than daytime warming. The annual mean wind speed, gale days, and sunshine duration had significant decreasing trends at rates of-0.21 m s-1 per decade, -4.0 d per decade and -43.3 h per decade, respectively. The snow cover onset dates postponed at a rate of 1.2 d per decade, and the snow cover end date advanced at 1.5 d per decade, which leads to shorter snow cover duration by -2.7 d per decade. Meanwhile, the maximum snow depth decreased at -0.52 cm per decade. In addition, the snow cover duration shows a higher correlation with precipitation than with temperature, which suggests that precipitation plays a more important role in maintaining snow cover duration than temperature.
基金Supported by Major State Basic Research Development Program of China ("973" Program, No. 2007CB714001)
文摘This paper focuses on obtaining an asymptotic solution for coupled heat and mass transfer problem during the solidification of high water content materials. It is found that a complicated function involved in governing equations can be approached by Taylor polynomials unlimitedly, which leads to the simplification of governing equations. The unknown functions involved in governing equations can then be approximated by Chebyshev polynomials. The coefficients of Chebyshev polynomials are determined and an asymptotic solution is obtained. With the asymptotic solution, the dehydration and freezing fronts of materials are evaluated easily, and are consistent with numerical results obtained by using an explicit finite difference method.
基金funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program for Space Sciences(Grant No.XDA04061200)of the Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2015CB953701)
文摘Accurate quantitative global scale snow water equivalent information is crucial for meteorology, hydrology, water cycle and global change studies, and is of great importance for snow melt-runoff forecast, water resources management and flood control. With land surface process model and snow process model, the snow water equivalent can be simulated with certain accuracy, with the forcing data as input. However, the snow water equivalent simulated using the snow process models has large uncertainties spatially and temporally, and it may be far from the needs of practical applications. Thus, the large scale snow water equivalent information is mainly from remote sensing. Beginning with the launch of Nimbus-7 satellite, the research on microwave snow water equivalent remote sensing has developed for more than 30 years, researchers have made progress in many aspects, including the electromagnetic scattering and emission modeling, ground and airborne experiments, and inversion algorithms for future global high resolution snow water equivalent remote sensing program. In this paper, the research and progress in the aspects of electromagnetic scattering/emission modeling over snow covered terrain and snow water equivalent inversion algorithm will be summarized.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40825017)Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. SKLCSZZ-2008-06)National Key Technology R & D Program (Grant No. 2006BAB18B01)
文摘A database of Antarctic 10 m firn temperature was constructed using available borehole temperature measurements with data quality control to extend knowledge of Antarctic climate. Slopes from a high-resolution digital elevation model and the main ice divide were used to delineate main drainage sectors across Antarctica. In each drainage sector, a quantitative relationship between temperature and latitude, longitude and altitude was established using available tim temperature data. Quantitative relationships incorporating other factors affecting Antarctic air temperature such as atmospheric circulation and small-scale to- pography were used to derive a 10-km resolution grid map of surface temperature. The resulting temperature patterns presented a reasonable depiction of both large and small-scale variations in Antarctic 10 m firn temperature. This map is useful for many spatial variation studies, Antarctic ice sheet models, and comparison with satellite-derived temperature data and outputs of atmospheric general circulation models.