The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these m...The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these methods is lower. This paper uses the grey system theory, and sets up grey forecasting model GM (1, 3) to coal requirement quantity. The forecasting result for the Chinese coal requirement quantity coincides with the actual values, and this shows that the model is reliable. Finally, this model are used to forecast Chinese coal requirement quantity in the future ten years.展开更多
As the main body of air traffic control safety,the air traffic controller is an important part of the whole air traffic control system. According to the relevant data of civil aviation over the years,a mapping model b...As the main body of air traffic control safety,the air traffic controller is an important part of the whole air traffic control system. According to the relevant data of civil aviation over the years,a mapping model between flight support sorties and air traffic controller demand is constructed by using the prediction algorithm of support vector regression(SVR) based on grid search and cross-validation. Then the model predicts the demand for air traffic controllers in seven regions. Additionally,according to the employment data of civil aviation universities,the future training scale of air traffic controller is predicted. The forecast results show that the average relative error of the number of controllers predicted by the algorithm is 1.73%,and the prediction accuracy is higher than traditional regression algorithms. Under the influence of the epidemic,the demand for air traffic controllers will decrease in the short term,but with the control of the epidemic,the demand of air traffic controllers will return to the pre-epidemic level and gradually increase. It is expected that the controller increment will be about 816 by 2028. The forecast results of the demand for air traffic controllers provide a theoretical basis for the introduction and training of medium and long-term air traffic controllers,and also provide method guidance and decision support for the establishment of professional reserve and dynamic control mechanism in the air traffic control system.展开更多
This paper proposes a selfsimilar local neurofuzzy （SSLNF） model with mutual informati onbased input selection algorithm for the shortterm electricity demand forecasting. The proposed self similar model is composed ...This paper proposes a selfsimilar local neurofuzzy （SSLNF） model with mutual informati onbased input selection algorithm for the shortterm electricity demand forecasting. The proposed self similar model is composed of a number of local models, each being a local linear neurofuzzy （LLNF） model, and their associated validity functions and can be interpreted itself as an LLNF model. The proposed model is trained by a nested local liner model tree （NLOLIMOT） learning algorithm which partitions the input space into axisorthogonal subdomains and then fits an LLNF model and its associated validity function on each subdomain. Furthermore, the proposed approach allows different input spaces for rule premises （validity functions） and consequents （local models）. This appealing property is employed to assign the candidate input variables （i.e., previous load and temperature） which influence shortterm electricity demand in linear and nonlinear ways to local models and validity functions, respectively. Numerical results from shortterm load forecasting in the New England in 2002 demonstrated the accuracy of the SSLNF model for the STLF applications.展开更多
文摘The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these methods is lower. This paper uses the grey system theory, and sets up grey forecasting model GM (1, 3) to coal requirement quantity. The forecasting result for the Chinese coal requirement quantity coincides with the actual values, and this shows that the model is reliable. Finally, this model are used to forecast Chinese coal requirement quantity in the future ten years.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71971114)。
文摘As the main body of air traffic control safety,the air traffic controller is an important part of the whole air traffic control system. According to the relevant data of civil aviation over the years,a mapping model between flight support sorties and air traffic controller demand is constructed by using the prediction algorithm of support vector regression(SVR) based on grid search and cross-validation. Then the model predicts the demand for air traffic controllers in seven regions. Additionally,according to the employment data of civil aviation universities,the future training scale of air traffic controller is predicted. The forecast results show that the average relative error of the number of controllers predicted by the algorithm is 1.73%,and the prediction accuracy is higher than traditional regression algorithms. Under the influence of the epidemic,the demand for air traffic controllers will decrease in the short term,but with the control of the epidemic,the demand of air traffic controllers will return to the pre-epidemic level and gradually increase. It is expected that the controller increment will be about 816 by 2028. The forecast results of the demand for air traffic controllers provide a theoretical basis for the introduction and training of medium and long-term air traffic controllers,and also provide method guidance and decision support for the establishment of professional reserve and dynamic control mechanism in the air traffic control system.
文摘This paper proposes a selfsimilar local neurofuzzy （SSLNF） model with mutual informati onbased input selection algorithm for the shortterm electricity demand forecasting. The proposed self similar model is composed of a number of local models, each being a local linear neurofuzzy （LLNF） model, and their associated validity functions and can be interpreted itself as an LLNF model. The proposed model is trained by a nested local liner model tree （NLOLIMOT） learning algorithm which partitions the input space into axisorthogonal subdomains and then fits an LLNF model and its associated validity function on each subdomain. Furthermore, the proposed approach allows different input spaces for rule premises （validity functions） and consequents （local models）. This appealing property is employed to assign the candidate input variables （i.e., previous load and temperature） which influence shortterm electricity demand in linear and nonlinear ways to local models and validity functions, respectively. Numerical results from shortterm load forecasting in the New England in 2002 demonstrated the accuracy of the SSLNF model for the STLF applications.
