场地条件影响的不确定性和震前预测地震灾害的必要性

本文根据理论分析和场地震害的实际调查资料,研究了场地条件的不确定性。结果表明:场地条件影响在强震和弱震、远震和近震中有一定的差别。最后,笔者还讨论了震前预测地震灾害的必要性。

西藏中部及其与青海邻近地区强震活动特征与玛尼7.5级地震预测研究

依据西藏中部强震活动特征及 1985年以来中国大陆强震活动新格局 ,于 1996年将藏北玛尼—唐古拉山口一带列为未来几年 71/4级地震危险区。这与刚刚发生的 1997 11 8玛尼 7 5级地震有较好的对应。再次表明采用活构造与强震研究相结合、震源区个性和地震带 (区 )共性相结合。

Anomaly detection of earthquake precursor data using long short-term memory networks

Earthquake precursor data have been used as an important basis for earthquake prediction.In this study,a recurrent neural network(RNN)architecture with long short-term memory(LSTM)units is utilized to develop a predictive model for normal data.Furthermore,the prediction errors from the predictive models are used to indicate normal or abnormal behavior.An additional advantage of using the LSTM networks is that the earthquake precursor data can be directly fed into the network without any elaborate preprocessing as required by other approaches.Furthermore,no prior information on abnormal data is needed by these networks as they are trained only using normal data.Experiments using three groups of real data were conducted to compare the anomaly detection results of the proposed method with those of manual recognition.The comparison results indicated that the proposed LSTM network achieves promising results and is viable for detecting anomalies in earthquake precursor data.

Anomalous Ionospheric foF2 Variations Observed Prior to the Dalbandin Earthquake in Pakistan

Ionosphereic foF2 variations are very sensitive to the seismic effect and results of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes seem to very hopeful for short-term earthquake prediction. On January 18,2011 at 20: 23 UT a great earthquake( M = 7. 2)occurred in Dalbandin( 28. 73° N,63. 92° E),Pakistan. In this study,we have tried to find out the features of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by using the hourly day time( 08. 00 a. m.- 05. 00 p. m.) data of critical frequency( foF2) obtained by three vertical sounding stations installed in Islamabad( 33. 78°N,73. 06°E),Multan( 32. 26°N,71. 51°E) and Karachi( 24. 89° N,67. 02° E), Pakistan. The results show the significant anomalies of foF2 in the earthquake preparation zone several days prior to the Dalbandin earthquake. It is also observed that the amplitude and frequency of foF2 anomalies are more prominent at the nearest station to the epicenter as compared to those stations near the outer margin of the earthquake preparation zone. The confidence level for ionospheric anomalies regarding the seismic signatures can be enhanced by adding the analysis of some other ionospheic parameters along with critical frequency of the layer F2.

Anomalies of Precursory Group and Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.

Short-term Earthquake Prediction in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region Using the Method of Modulated Earthquakes

By scanning modulated or un-modulated earthquakes spatio-temporally in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan,short-term non-stationary seismic precursory patterns were extracted with significant difference and the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies were analyzed as well as prediction efficiency of modulated small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios near the region of the epicenter were calculated and sorted by time. The results indicated that there were significant effects using the modulated earthquake method to predict earthquakes greater than MS6. 0 in a short time. Before the MS8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake,there were obvious short-term precursory seismicity gap patterns of modulated small earthquakes.

Abnormally large short-term and impending earthquake geomagnetic anomaly implies a possibility of earthquake pre-warning

The study found that strong magnetic anomalies repeatedly took place before big earthquakes. Based on geomagnetic record analysis results,we discussed a possible pattern of the magnetic anomalies prior to earthquake. In meizoseismal area or epicenter,in a time period of 36 h to about 10 min before earthquake,the exceptional big geomagnetic change increases with the magnitude of earthquake. We calculated that,in a place of 1 km from the epicenter,the magnetic anomaly before destructive earthquakes of Ms 6～9 can reach to 102～104 nT(the magnitude of earth magnetic field is 104 nT) ,rather than the magnitude of 10 nT from seismomagnetic effect theories since 1960s. From this we speculated the abnormal magnetic ULF near epicenter before earthquake seems to be an "intermittent magnetic eruption". Accordingly,we proposed that geomagnetic induction earthquake alarm can be a new pre-warning method to surmount hardship in solving the puzzledom of earthquake imminent prediction.