变暖背景下青藏高原夏季风变异及其对中国西南气候的影响

利用1951—2012年逐月NECP/NCAR-Ⅰ再分析资料和1960—2012年逐月中国西南地区116站常规气象要素资料,基于青藏高原地区夏季600 hPa涡度场特征,定义了新的青藏高原夏季风强度和位置指数,讨论在全球变暖背景下,青藏高原季风变化对中国西南地区气候的影响。青藏高原季风强度整体增强,在20世纪90年代末达到峰值后逐渐减弱,与北半球气温变化具有较好的一致性,位置变化相对独立。夏季青藏高原季风强度和中心经度位置对中国西南地区气候有显著影响。当青藏高原季风偏强时,西南地区水汽异常辐合,以阴天为主,日照偏短,蒸发减弱,气温日较差明显减小,降水偏多;上升运动在川渝地区发展深厚,云贵地区仅限于600 hPa以下,川渝地区气象要素变化更显著。当青藏高原季风位置偏东时,西南全区受异常下沉运动控制,气温偏高,四川中、西部和贵州、广西等地出现较强的水汽异常辐散,气温显著偏高,相对湿度偏低,降水偏少。进入21世纪以来,青藏高原季风强度和中心经度的反位相叠加,加剧了西南地区的干旱化。新的青藏高原季风指数不仅能反映青藏高原地区的季风环流特征,而且对中国西南气候变化具有较好的指示意义,可为中国汛期气候预测提供理论依据和技术支持。

青藏高原夏季风和南海夏季风低频振荡的关系

利用1948-2010年NCEP/NCAR全球大气逐日平均的再分析资料分析了青藏高原夏季风和南海夏季风大气低频振荡的可能关系。结果表明,夏半年高原地区和南海地区季风均存在明显的30~50天的振荡周期,并且两者在这个振荡周期上存在明显的位相关系,即南海夏季风的低频振荡比青藏高原夏季风提前约3/4个位相,对500 h Pa和850 h Pa低频风场的研究也得出同样的结果。两者存在明显位相关系的原因之一可能是3月下旬开始南海向青藏高原地区的低频输送。

青藏高原夏季风和北半球夏季季节内振荡对中国西南地区雨季旱涝的影响及协同作用

中国西南地区旱涝变化受多种天气系统影响,青藏高原夏季风(Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon,QTPSM)和北半球夏季季节内振荡(boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation,BSISO)等次季节系统的强弱都会导致中国西南地区雨季旱涝变化,但目前这2个系统的协同作用机制尚缺乏系统性研究。因此,本文利用1981—2020年美国国家海洋与大气管理局气候预报中心日降水量和美国国家环境预报中心日再分析资料等,采用青藏高原季风指数(QTPM index,QTPMI)和BSISO指数,分析QTPSM和BSISO对中国西南地区雨季旱涝的影响及协同作用机制。结果表明:(1)QTPSM的强度与中国西南地区雨季降水量呈反相关,活跃阶段的QTPSM(active QTPSM,AQ)抑制西南地区降水,抑制阶段的QTPSM(inactive QTPSM,IAQ)促进西南地区降水。(2)在BSISO第一模态的5、6相位和第二模态的3、4相位期间,中国西南地区雨季极端降水发生概率增大;而在BSISO第一模态的2、3相位和第二模态的6、7相位期间,中国西南地区雨季极端降水发生概率减小。(3)在协同作用中,BSISO第二模态的6、7相位和QTPSM组合对中国西南地区雨季旱涝影响最大,降水正距平分布范围最广;当BSISO相位与AQ组合转为与IAQ组合时,中国西南地区雨季降水正距平大值区由北部转为南部。(4)在AQ组合相位中,中国西南地区雨季对流层中层盛行东南风,低层东西两侧均为“一高一低”的环流配置,促使印度洋、西太平洋水汽输送至西南地区北部,形成水汽辐合区;在IAQ组合相位中,中国西南地区雨季对流层中层盛行偏北风,低层受强气旋环流控制,促使印度洋水汽持续输送至西南地区南部,形成水汽辐合带。

青藏高原地表参数的被动微波遥感反演研究

利用被动微波遥感数据TMI和GAME-Tibet加强观测期的地面观测数据,改进和发展了一个被动微波遥感反演地表温度、土壤湿度和植被含水量的三维查表算法(3-D LUT),并在青藏高原中部中尺度范围内进行了反演试验.对1998年7月1日的数据进行了个例处理,给出了3个地表参数的空间分布结果.进一步考虑了高原对流云对反演结果的影响,对5个月的TMI数据进行了10天的合成处理,利用合成图像运行算法得到了10天平均的结果.结果显示1998年5-9月5个月的土壤湿度反演结果的时空分布与实际情况符合较好;从选取的几个测站的数据比较看,去云处理后得到的土壤湿度反演结果有了明显改善.

Thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and tropical Indian Ocean and its relationship to the South Asian summer monsoon

The land-sea thermal contrast is an important driver for monsoon interannual variability and the monsoon onset.The thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical Indian Ocean at the mid-upper troposphere is proposed as a thermal contrast index(TCI)for South Asian monsoon.The authors investigate the TCI associated with South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)intensity and SASM onset.It is observed that the TCI considering the Tibetan Plateau and tropical Indian Ocean demonstrates a stronger and closer correlation with SASM intensity(0.87)than either the Tibetan Plateau(0.42)or tropical Indian Ocean(-0.60)singly.It is implied that the TCI could preferably represent the impact of land-sea thermal condition on SASM activity.Further analysis reveals that the evolution of TCI is related to the SASM onset.The TCI is almost always larger in early onset years than it is in late onset years during the period before SASM onset.In addition,the change of the pentad-by-pentad increment of TCI leads the SASM variation.The correlation coefficient between the TCI increment and SASM index reaches a maximum when the TCI increment leads by 15 pentads.The results of this study show that the TCI plays an important role in SASM activities and is a potential indicator for SASM onset forecasting.

Exploring the relationship between the cloud-top and tropopause height in boreal summer over the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent region

The distribution characteristics of cloud-top and tropopause height in the tropics and subtropics in boreal summer are analyzed based on CALIPSO data for the period 2008-2012.The maximum values of cloud-top vertical cumulative frequency above the tropopause （CTAT） are concentrated in three tropical regions：the Asian summer monsoon region,Central America,and western Africa.The contributions to the area-weighted CTAT frequency in the three regions from the Northern Hemisphere are 49.0%,13.5%,and 12.4%,respectively.Moreover,the contribution of troposphere-to-stratosphere transport （TST） in the Asian monsoon region to global TST can be far greater than 50%,according to analysis of the continuous equation,velocity potential,and divergent wind from ERA-Interim data.Furthermore,the Asian summer monsoon circulation system controls the distribution of the cloud top.On the south side of the Tibetan Plateau,the maximum frequency of the cloud top,more than 10% per 500 m vertically,is most likely to appear in the core of the high-level easterlyjet near the tropopause height （16.5 km）.Over the Tibetan Plateau,the maximum frequency of the cloud top,greater than 3% per 500 m vertically,is suppressed below 11 km,far away from the thermodynamic tropopause height but close to the dynamic tropopause height of 2 PVU （potential vorticity units）.

The Relationship between Precipitation and Airflow over the Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer

Based on the observation data and the reanalysis datasets, the variability and the circulation features influencing precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are investigated. Taking into account the effects of topography, surface winds are deconstructed into flow-around and flow-over components relative to the TP. Climatologically, the flow-around component mainly represents cyclonic circulation in the TP during the summer. The transition zone of total precipitation in the summer parallels the convergence belt between the southerlies and the northerlies of the flow-over component. The leading mode of rainfall anomalies in the TP has a meridional dipole structure, and the first principal component (PC1) mainly depicts the variation of rainfall in the southern TP. The wet southern TP experiences strengthened flow-over, which in turn mechanistically favors intensified ascent forced by the flow-over component. In addition, variations in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) have an important role in influencing the flow over the southern TP, and the ISM ultimately impacts the precipitation over southern TP.

Two types of summertime heating over the Asian large-scale orography and excitation of potential-vorticity forcing I. Over Tibetan Plateau

Based on numerical simulation, this study explored the characteristics and interactions of surface sensible heating and atmospheric latent heating over the main part of the Tibetan Plateau, i.e., terrain at elevations >2 km in summer. The impacts of these two types of heating on local vertical motion and monsoonal meridional circulation were compared. Theoretical analysis and numerical experimentation demonstrated that by changing the configuration of the upper-tropospheric air temperature and circulation, the two types of heating could generate both minimum absolute vorticity and abnormal potential vorticity forcing near the tropopause, enhance the meridional circulation of the Asian summer monsoon, and produce an eastward-propagating Rossby wave train within the mid-latitude westerly flow. Consequently, the manifestations of these features were shown to influence the circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder water vapor and ozone profiles over the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent region during boreal summer

We present validation studies of MLS V2.2 and V3.3 water vapor(WV) and ozone profiles over the Tibetan Plateau(Naqu and Lhasa) and its adjacent region(Tengchong) respectively by using the balloon-borne Cryogenic Frost point Hygrometer and Electrochemical Concentration Cell ozonesonde. Coincident in situ measurements were selected to compare the MLS V2.2 and V3.3 WV and ozone profiles for understanding the applicability of the two version MLS products over the region. MLS V2.2 and V3.3 WV profiles respectively show their differences within ?2.2±15.7%(n=74) and 0.3±14.9%(n=75) in the stratosphere at and above 82.5 h Pa. Accordingly, at 100 h Pa, the altitude approaching the tropopuase height, differences are within 9.8± 46.0%(n=18) and 23.0±45.8%(n=17), and they are within 21.5±90.6%(n=104) and 6.0±83.4%(n=99) in upper troposphere. The differences of MLS ozone are within ?11.7±16.3%(n=135, V2.2) and 15.6±24.2%(n=305, V3.3) at and above 82.5 h Pa. At 100 h Pa, they are within ?3.5±54.4%(n=27) and ?8.7±41.6%(n=38), and within 18.0±79.1%(n=47) and 34.2±76.6%(n=160) in the upper troposphere. The relative difference of MLS WV and ozone profile has significant oscillation and scatter at upper troposphere and lower stratosphere partly due to the stronger gradients of WV and ozone concentrations here as well the linear interpolation of sonde data for the intercomparison. At and below 70 h Pa, the relative differences of MLS ozone are significantly larger over Lhasa during the Tibetan Plateau "ozone valley" season, which is also the Asian Summer Monsoon period. The MLS ozone differences over the three sites are similar in their vertical distributions during that period. A simple linear correlation analysis between MLS and sonde profiles indicates that the sensitivity of MLS profile products is related to concentrations at each pressure level. The MLS V3.3 product sensitivity is slightly improved for WV at and above 82.5 h Pa, whereas it is not obvious for ozone. The possible factors contributing to the differences of the MLS profile products of WV and ozone are discussed.

Can the tropical storms originated from the Bay of Bengal impact the precipitation and soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau?

This study investigates the impacts of tropical storms originated from the Bay of Bengal(BOBTSs) on the precipitation and soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) in April–June(AMJ) and September–December(SOND) during 1981–2011 based on the best track dataset provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Centre(JTWC). Results indicate that there are about 1.35 BOBTSs influence the TP in each year and most of them occurred in May and October, and the BOBTSs in AMJ influence the TP with larger extension and higher latitudes than those in SOND. The maximum regional precipitation induced by the BOBTSs accounts for more than 50% for the total precipitation in the corresponding month and about 20% for the season. Further analysis reveals that the surface soil moisture anomalies induced by the BOBTSs can persist only 20–25 days in AMJ, and the case is also true for the snow depth in SOND. Numerical simulations by using the regional climate model of Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) suggest that the soil moisture anomalies in the sub-surface can last 2 months whereas for the surface it can persist only about 20 days, which agrees well with the observation analysis. Overall, the effect of the preceding BOBTSs on the snow depth and soil moisture anomalies over the TP cannot maintain to summer, and there is no robust connection between the BOBTSs and summer precipitation anomalies in East China. Moreover, since the mid-1990 s, the spring rainfall induced by the BOBTSs over the TP seems to be enhanced to a certain degree because of the intensified BOBTSs.