钢丝网水泥薄壳渡槽可靠度分析

文章将可靠度理论应用于钢丝网水泥薄壳渡槽安全度分析,对湖南省欧阳海灌区两座典型钢丝网水泥薄壳渡槽原现状的分析,建立了两"壳槽"的功能函数和极限状态方程,采用可靠度分析的改进一次二阶矩方法对两"壳槽"进行了可靠度分析和评价,为"壳槽"加固提供可靠依据。

Three-dimensional pseudo-dynamic reliability analysis of seismic shield tunnel faces combined with sparse polynomial chaos expansion

To address the seismic face stability challenges encountered in urban and subsea tunnel construction,an efficient probabilistic analysis framework for shield tunnel faces under seismic conditions is proposed.Based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis,an improved three-dimensional discrete deterministic mechanism,accounting for the heterogeneous nature of soil media,is formulated to evaluate seismic face stability.The metamodel of failure probabilistic assessments for seismic tunnel faces is constructed by integrating the sparse polynomial chaos expansion method(SPCE)with the modified pseudo-dynamic approach(MPD).The improved deterministic model is validated by comparing with published literature and numerical simulations results,and the SPCE-MPD metamodel is examined with the traditional MCS method.Based on the SPCE-MPD metamodels,the seismic effects on face failure probability and reliability index are presented and the global sensitivity analysis(GSA)is involved to reflect the influence order of seismic action parameters.Finally,the proposed approach is tested to be effective by a engineering case of the Chengdu outer ring tunnel.The results show that higher uncertainty of seismic response on face stability should be noticed in areas with intense earthquakes and variation of seismic wave velocity has the most profound influence on tunnel face stability.

STOCHASTIC BOUNDARY ELEMENT METHODS FOR 3D PROBLEMS WITH BODY FORCES AND ITS APPLICATION IN RELIABILITY OF TURBINE DISKS

The stochastic boundary element method(SBEM)is developed in this paper for 3D problems with body forces and reliability analysis of engineering structures.The integral equations of SBEM are established by the approach of partial derivation with respect to stochastic variables,considering the yield limit,rotation speeds and material density to be the fundamental stochastic variables.Through analyzing a numerical example and a turbo-disk of an aeroengine,the results show that the method developed is successful.

Tunnel face reliability analysis using active learning Kriging model——Case of a two-layer soils

This paper is devoted to the probabilistic stability analysis of a tunnel face excavated in a two-layer soil. The interface of the soil layers is assumed to be positioned above the tunnel roof. In the framework of limit analysis, a rotational failure mechanism is adopted to describe the face failure considering different shear strength parameters in the two layers. The surrogate Kriging model is introduced to replace the actual performance function to perform a Monte Carlo simulation. An active learning function is used to train the Kriging model which can ensure an efficient tunnel face failure probability prediction without loss of accuracy. The deterministic stability analysis is given to validate the proposed tunnel face failure model. Subsequently, the number of initial sampling points, the correlation coefficient, the distribution type and the coefficient of variability of random variables are discussed to show their influences on the failure probability. The proposed approach is an advisable alternative for the tunnel face stability assessment and can provide guidance for tunnel design.

Accurate estimation of soil shear strength parameters

The cost and safety of geotechnical engineering are highly depending on the accuracy of soil shear strength parameters.There are three methods often used to estimate soil shear strength parameters,i.e.,moment method,3-sigma rule and linear regression method.In this study,the accuracy of these three methods is compared.Traditional linear regression method(LRM)can only offer the mean of shear strength parameters.Some engineers misuse the standard error of shear strength indexes as the standard deviations.Such misuse may highly underestimate the uncertainty and induce high risk to the geotechnical design.A modified LRM is proposed to determine both the mean and variance of shear strength parameters.The moment method,three-sigma rule and LRM are used to analyze the tri-axial test data in Xiaolangdi Hydraulic Project and three numerical shear strength tests.The results demonstrate that:1)The modified LRM can offer the most accurate estimation to shear strength parameters;2)A dimensionless formula is much preferred in LRM rather than a dimensional formula.The stress ratio formula is much better than stress relation in the shear strength parameter analysis.The proposed method is applicable to shear strength parameter analysis for tri-axial test data,direct shear test and the un-drained shear strength test of stratified clay.

Hybrid reliability model for fatigue reliability analysis of steel bridges

A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of the S-N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.

System reliability analysis of seismic pseudo-static stability of rock wedge based on nonlinear Barton–Bandis criterion

Based on the nonlinear Barton–Bandis(B–B)failure criterion,this study considers the system reliability of rock wedge stability under the pseudo-static seismic load.The failure probability(Pf)of the system is calculated based on the Monte−Carlo method when considering parameter correlation and variability.Parameter analysis and sensitivity analysis are carried out to explore the influence of parameters on reliability.The relationships among the failure probability,safety factor(Fs),and variation coefficient are explored,and then stability probability curves of the rock wedge under the pseudo-static seismic load are drawn.The results show that the parameter correlation of the B–B failure criterion has a significant influence on the failure probability,but correlation increases system reliability or decreases system reliability affected by other parameters.Under the pseudo-static seismic action,sliding on both planes is the main failure mode of wedge system.In addition,the parameters with relatively high sensitivity are two angles related to the joint dip.When the coefficient of variation is consistent,the probability of system failure is a function of the safety factor.

New algorithm of mine slope reliability based on limiting state hyper-plane and its engineering application

Due to the influence of joint fissure, mining intensity, designed slope angle, underground water and rainfall, the failure process of mine slope project is extremely complicated. The current safety factor calculation method has certain limitations, and it would be difficult to obtain the reliability index when the performance function of reliability analysis is implicit or has high order terms. Therefore, with the help of the logistic equation of chaos theory, a new algorithm of mine slope reliability based on limiting state hyper-plane is proposed. It is shown that by using this new reliability algorithm the calculation of partial derivative of performance function is avoided, and it has the advantages of being simple and easy to program. The new algorithm is suitable for calculating the reliability index of complex performance function containing high order terms. Furthermore, the limiting state hyper-plane models of both simplified Bishop's and Janbu's method adaptive to slope project are obtained, and have achieved satisfactory effect in the study of mine slope stability in Dexing copper open pit.

Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system's failure for concrete gravity dam

Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.

Reliability Analysis Based on a Direct Ship Hull Strength Assessment

A method of reliability analysis based on a direct strength calculation employing the von Mises stress failure criterion is presented here. The short term strain distributions of ship hull structural components are identified through the statistical analysis of the wave-induced strain history and the long term distributions by the weighted summation of the short term strain distributions. The wave-induced long term strain distribution is combined with the still water strain. The extreme strain distribution of the response strain is obtained by statistical analysis of the combined strains. The limit state function of the reliability analysis is based on the von Mises stress failure criterion, including the related uncertainties due to the quality of the material and model uncertainty. The reliability index is calculated using FORM and sensitivity analysis of each variable that has effects on the reliability is also discussed.

Research on Seismic Reliability and Damage of Reinforced Concrete Frame

This paper first introduces the basic principle of seismic risk analysis, and then put forward the basic concept of structures global seismic fragility, aiming at the existing problems of traditional analysis method, combined the method of analytical approximation degree of structure reliability with Performance-Based Seismic Design （PBSD）, put forward the analysis method of structural reliability and the performance of the global seismic fragility, are calculated by using the finite element reliability method of structures global seismic fragility. Taking the maximum interlamination relative deformation as indicators of overall performance, we analyze seismic fragility of five storey RC frame structure, rendering the seismic fragility curves corresponding to different performance requirements and different earthquake action.

Reliability and sensitivity of bogie frame of high-speed train with strength degradation

High-speed bogie frame is a key mechanical component in a train system. The reliability analysis of the bogie is necessary to the safety of high-speed train. Reliability analysis of a bogie frame was considered. The equivalent load method was employed to account for random repeated loads in structural reliability analysis. Degradation of material strength was regarded as a Gamma process. The probabilistic perturbation method was, then, employed for response moment computation. Example of a high-speed train bogie structure under time-variant load was employed for reliability and sensitivity analyses. Monte-Carlo simulation verifies the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in time-variant reliability analysis. The analysis results show that the reliability calculation considering the strength degradation and repeated load is closer to the practicality than the method of considering reliability calculation only. Its decreasing velocity is faster than the traditional reliability. The reliability sensitivity value changes over time. The analysis results provide a variation trend of reliability and sensitivity to design and usage of bogie frame.

aging structures in the presence of incomplete deterioration information

The performance of an aging structure is commonly evaluated under the framework of reliability analysis, where the uncertainties associated with the structural resistance and loads should be taken into account. In practical engineering, the probability distribution of resistance deterioration is often inaccessible due to the limits of available data, although the statistical parameters such as mean value and standard deviation can be obtained by fitting or empirical judgments. As a result, an error of structural reliability may be introduced when an arbitrary probabilistic distribution is assumed for the resistance deterioration. With this regard, in this paper, the amount of reliability error posed by different choices of deterioration distribution is investigated, and a novel approach is proposed to evaluate the averaged structural reliability under incomplete deterioration information, which does not rely on the probabilistic weight of the candidate deterioration models. The reliability for an illustrative structure is computed parametrically for varying probabilistic models of deterioration and different resistance conditions, through which the reliability associated with different deterioration models is compared, and the application of the proposed method is illustrated.

Wind Turbine Gearbox Reliability Analysis Based on the System Level Stress-Strength Model

In order to estimate the reliability of wind turbine gearbox based on the system level, a generalized stress-strength model is introduced. Considering that the system works properly under a variety of random stresses which affect every component, the total stress on the system is given by a known linear combination of the stresses of all components. Then the strength of the system can be viewed as a linear combination of the strengths of relative components. In this model, stress and strength are independent of each other. Reliability of the system is the probability that strength exceeds stress. Finally, the reliability of wind turbine gearbox is estimated by the multivariable reliability calculation method. The corresponding result is compared with the results of reliability in the extreme cases(completely dependent and completely independent) by the traditional evaluation method.

Dependence patterns associated with the fundamental diagram:a copula function approach

Randomness plays a major role in the interpretation of many interesting traffic flow phenomena,such as hysteresis,capacity drop and spontaneous breakdown. The analysis of the uncertainty and reliability of traffic systems is directly associated with their random characteristics. Therefore,it is beneficial to understand the distributional properties of traffic variables. This paper focuses on the dependence relation between traffic flow density and traffic speed,which constitute the fundamental diagram (FD). The traditional model of the FD is obtained essentially through curve fitting. We use the copula function as the basic toolkit and provide a novel approach for identifying the distributional patterns associated with the FD. In particular,we construct a rule-of-thumb nonparametric copula function,which in general avoids the mis-specification risk of parametric approaches and is more efficient in practice. By applying our construction to loop detector data on a freeway,we identify the dependence patterns existing in traffic data. We find that similar modes exist among traffic states of low,moderate or high traffic densities. Our findings also suggest that highway traffic speed and traffic flow density as a bivariate distribution is skewed and highly heterogeneous.