“一带一路”背景下资源型联合投资策略选择研究

“一带一路”沿线国家资源分布不均衡且相互依存度高,资源型海外投资成为沿线国家保证经济安全的重要路径。文章通过构建鞍点概率模型和算例仿真,探究不同参数条件下中国国有企业和民营企业联合投资概率的最优调节方法。研究表明:联合投资的合作收益、合作成本、违约金等市场机制因素对联合投资概率有一定影响但不能达到预期;搭配政府打造合作平台、实施财税激励等宏观调节措施能有效地提升企业联合投资概率;进一步考虑适度调节合作方的初始投资比例可以有效促进联合投资主体向积极合作的方向演化,以上因素复合牵引对联合投资概率的影响更为显著。研究丰富了企业海外投资影响因素的研究,对企业投资策略选择以及政府宏观政策实施具有现实意义。

CONFIDENCE LOWER LIMITS FOR RESPONSE PROBABILITIES UNDER THE LOGISTIC RESPONSE MODEL

The lower confidence limits for response probabilities based on binary response data under the logistic response model are considered by saddlepoint approach.The high order approximation to the conditional distribution of a statistic for an interested parameter and then the lower confidence limits of response probabilities are derived.A simulation comparing these lower confidence limits with those obtained from the asymptotic normality is conducted.The proposed approximation is applied to two real data sets.Numerical results show that the saddlepoint approximations are much more accurate than the asymptotic normality approximations,especially for the cases of small or moderate sample sizes.