Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks tha...Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.展开更多
A test items knowledge library system of for adaptive learning is proposed in this paper. The first step is to carry out the quantity and quality analysis of the test items by using the Bloom＇s revised taxonomy and s...A test items knowledge library system of for adaptive learning is proposed in this paper. The first step is to carry out the quantity and quality analysis of the test items by using the Bloom＇s revised taxonomy and scale anchoring respectively to produce the characteristics for test items. A smoothing method of arbitrary anchoring revised from scale anchoring is first proposed to make tests more accurate in distinguishing test levels. In addition, raised three dimensional indicators based on the Bloom＇s revised taxonomy are adopted to validate test contents and therefore it concretely describes the examining function of items. The items obtained have the precise and concrete properties; an item knowledge library is therefore constructed combining teaching materials and items using the technologies of ontology and knowledge management. Finally, a knowledge library system of test items is established to achieve the purpose of adaptive learning for learners.展开更多
Getting the right people in the right place at the right time has always been a major organizational challenge. In ancient times this process seems to have been accomplished based on the scheme of arrangements being c...Getting the right people in the right place at the right time has always been a major organizational challenge. In ancient times this process seems to have been accomplished based on the scheme of arrangements being contained in the leader＇s mind and instructions communicated verbally. Modem approaches to solving the twin challenges of first thinking through the ＇plan＇ and then communicating the plan to the people who need to do ＇the right work, at the right time, in the right place＇ use sophisticated graphics, charts, diagrams, and computa- tions. This paper traces the development of the concepts most project managers take for granted including bar charts and critical path schedules from their origins （which are far earlier than most people think） through to the modem day. The first section of the paper looks at the development of concepts that allow the visualization of time and other data. The second looks at the shift from static representations to dynamic modeling through the emergence of computers, dynamic calculations and integrated data from the 1950s to the present time.展开更多
文摘Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.
文摘A test items knowledge library system of for adaptive learning is proposed in this paper. The first step is to carry out the quantity and quality analysis of the test items by using the Bloom＇s revised taxonomy and scale anchoring respectively to produce the characteristics for test items. A smoothing method of arbitrary anchoring revised from scale anchoring is first proposed to make tests more accurate in distinguishing test levels. In addition, raised three dimensional indicators based on the Bloom＇s revised taxonomy are adopted to validate test contents and therefore it concretely describes the examining function of items. The items obtained have the precise and concrete properties; an item knowledge library is therefore constructed combining teaching materials and items using the technologies of ontology and knowledge management. Finally, a knowledge library system of test items is established to achieve the purpose of adaptive learning for learners.
文摘Getting the right people in the right place at the right time has always been a major organizational challenge. In ancient times this process seems to have been accomplished based on the scheme of arrangements being contained in the leader＇s mind and instructions communicated verbally. Modem approaches to solving the twin challenges of first thinking through the ＇plan＇ and then communicating the plan to the people who need to do ＇the right work, at the right time, in the right place＇ use sophisticated graphics, charts, diagrams, and computa- tions. This paper traces the development of the concepts most project managers take for granted including bar charts and critical path schedules from their origins （which are far earlier than most people think） through to the modem day. The first section of the paper looks at the development of concepts that allow the visualization of time and other data. The second looks at the shift from static representations to dynamic modeling through the emergence of computers, dynamic calculations and integrated data from the 1950s to the present time.
