To minimize the deviations of the net present values of project payment for both the owner and the client and optimize project payment schedules, a Nash equilibrium model based on game theory was set up and a genetic ...To minimize the deviations of the net present values of project payment for both the owner and the client and optimize project payment schedules, a Nash equilibrium model based on game theory was set up and a genetic algorithm was developed to work out the Nash equilibrium solution with a two-stage backward inductive approach that requires the client responds to the owner’s payment schedule with an activity schedule so as to maximize the client’s net present value of cash flows. A case study demonstrated that a payment schedule at the Nash equilibrium position enables both the owner and the client to gain their desirable interests, thus is a win-win solution for both parties. Despite the computation time of the proposed algrithm in need of improving, combining Nash equilibrium and genetic algorithm into a complete-information dynamic-game model is a promising method for project management optimization.展开更多
Time, cost and quality are the three main targets to be controled in project management. However, the control and management of time and cost risk are usually carried out respectively, which will bring such problems a...Time, cost and quality are the three main targets to be controled in project management. However, the control and management of time and cost risk are usually carried out respectively, which will bring such problems as the delay of schedule by reason of the impracticability of cash flow, the money difficulties caused by delay of schedule and so on. In order to control and manage the time and cost risk effectively and simultaneously, a time & cost risk control model based on schedule programme was established with the use of the quantitativemodels of BCWS, BCWP and ACWP in this paper. Subsequently, the analysis of variance for the whole project and the single activity was introduced on the basis of BCWS, BCWP and ACWP so that the project can be controlled and managed effectively. Furthermore, an example given behind in detail expressly illustrated that the model set up above was practicableto project management. However, the method of optimizing the cash flow based on time and cost risk to obtain BCWS should be considered properlyand carefully with respect to the different circumstances of the project, and an efficient and adequate interval report system should be set up on the site of the project.展开更多
The paper provides an empirical insight into the significance of shared cognition reflected in the perception of key actors in selected construction projects. It has explored how clients, consultants and contractors p...The paper provides an empirical insight into the significance of shared cognition reflected in the perception of key actors in selected construction projects. It has explored how clients, consultants and contractors prioritize causes of cost overrun in building projects in Tanzania and measured the statistical variance in their order of rank. A total of 55 respondents were selected from public projects that had experienced cost overruns. The results show an inclination of the top 4 causes of cost overrun being technical and originate from internal sources. The Spearman correlation coefficient established a strong positive correlation in the ranking of causes of cost overrun in construction project by clients, consultants and contractors, suggesting a shared cognition is in place for the project team. The outcome provides a good base for contemplating success of mitigation measures for cost overruns and reiterates the significance for a shared cognition for project team success.展开更多
Pakistan has been suffering from a chronic deficit in the current account for many decades. Current account deficit strengthens the foreign currency against the home currency which makes imports of good and services m...Pakistan has been suffering from a chronic deficit in the current account for many decades. Current account deficit strengthens the foreign currency against the home currency which makes imports of good and services more expensive as compared to exports and causes devaluation of home currency. The main objective of this paper is to find out how the current account deficit is influenced by different economic factors. Our regression model’s estimated results indicate that the percentage change in the volume of imports, foreign direct investments and total consumption are positively correlated and, on the other hand, exports, workers remittance, growth in agriculture and manufacturing are negatively correlated with the current account balance of Pakistan during the observed period 1972-2001.展开更多
Regarding construction projects, no project is implemented exactly as planned. Changes in construction projects are common due to the dynamic nature of the construction process. It is necessary to use effective and ap...Regarding construction projects, no project is implemented exactly as planned. Changes in construction projects are common due to the dynamic nature of the construction process. It is necessary to use effective and appropriate tools by project management to support decision-making and control changes during all stages of project implementation. This study examined the effects of change orders through technical programs on construction projects in Jordan and focused on how to overcome these effects by making usual orders that can be handled by each of the contracting parties. Also, this study added an advantage by not addressing the negative effects of change orders, but it provided many positive effects of change orders by using technical programs method, which has not been yet researched in Jordanian studies in particular, and in global studies in general. The researcher used descriptive analytical method by interviews to collect data through nine questions to a random sample of 30 engineers selected form constructions projects in Jordan. The results related to the study questions on the effect of change orders through technical programs on construction projects in Jordan showed that, most of the study samples confirm that change orders through technical programs decrease the cost of the projects, cause no need for more materials, cause no delay in the completion schedule, enhances the quality of work, and increase the productivity of the work force. The study recommended applying integrated change management system with technical supports form different technologies, developing effective innovative and practical solution to manage change orders and increase training programs to qualify and increase engineering skills in dealing with ICT （information and communication technologies） program.展开更多
Agricultural comprehensive development project is an important component of our country＇s financial expenditure. Making a reasonable evaluation of comprehensive agricultural development projects is not only to guaran...Agricultural comprehensive development project is an important component of our country＇s financial expenditure. Making a reasonable evaluation of comprehensive agricultural development projects is not only to guarantee high quality of project implementation, but also of practical significance to the enhancement of our country＇ s comprehensive agricultural production capacity. Being based on the present situation and characteristics of the project, this paper has raised the general thinking about the overall performance evaluation for the project and analyzed the dimension factors in the evaluation system.展开更多
Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks tha...Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.展开更多
While trauma registries provide the mechanisms to collect comprehensive, timely and accurate data related to the injuries and evaluate trauma care systems, they have not been established in most developing countries. ...While trauma registries provide the mechanisms to collect comprehensive, timely and accurate data related to the injuries and evaluate trauma care systems, they have not been established in most developing countries. On the other hand, in complex projects that have large aims, a logical framework approach （LFA） can help summarize and describe the multiple branches of the project systematically, and elucidate the main goals, extensive objectives, activities and expected outcomes. Therefore a LFA can be used to design and guide trauma registry project management, to integrate the cultural, clinical and capacity variations among countries; and to ensure early alignment of the project＇s design and evaluation.展开更多
基金Funded by the Science Research Program of Hebei Province under Grant No. 2002135.
文摘To minimize the deviations of the net present values of project payment for both the owner and the client and optimize project payment schedules, a Nash equilibrium model based on game theory was set up and a genetic algorithm was developed to work out the Nash equilibrium solution with a two-stage backward inductive approach that requires the client responds to the owner’s payment schedule with an activity schedule so as to maximize the client’s net present value of cash flows. A case study demonstrated that a payment schedule at the Nash equilibrium position enables both the owner and the client to gain their desirable interests, thus is a win-win solution for both parties. Despite the computation time of the proposed algrithm in need of improving, combining Nash equilibrium and genetic algorithm into a complete-information dynamic-game model is a promising method for project management optimization.
文摘Time, cost and quality are the three main targets to be controled in project management. However, the control and management of time and cost risk are usually carried out respectively, which will bring such problems as the delay of schedule by reason of the impracticability of cash flow, the money difficulties caused by delay of schedule and so on. In order to control and manage the time and cost risk effectively and simultaneously, a time & cost risk control model based on schedule programme was established with the use of the quantitativemodels of BCWS, BCWP and ACWP in this paper. Subsequently, the analysis of variance for the whole project and the single activity was introduced on the basis of BCWS, BCWP and ACWP so that the project can be controlled and managed effectively. Furthermore, an example given behind in detail expressly illustrated that the model set up above was practicableto project management. However, the method of optimizing the cash flow based on time and cost risk to obtain BCWS should be considered properlyand carefully with respect to the different circumstances of the project, and an efficient and adequate interval report system should be set up on the site of the project.
文摘The paper provides an empirical insight into the significance of shared cognition reflected in the perception of key actors in selected construction projects. It has explored how clients, consultants and contractors prioritize causes of cost overrun in building projects in Tanzania and measured the statistical variance in their order of rank. A total of 55 respondents were selected from public projects that had experienced cost overruns. The results show an inclination of the top 4 causes of cost overrun being technical and originate from internal sources. The Spearman correlation coefficient established a strong positive correlation in the ranking of causes of cost overrun in construction project by clients, consultants and contractors, suggesting a shared cognition is in place for the project team. The outcome provides a good base for contemplating success of mitigation measures for cost overruns and reiterates the significance for a shared cognition for project team success.
基金Sponsored by the National Center of Technology, Policy and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology.
文摘Pakistan has been suffering from a chronic deficit in the current account for many decades. Current account deficit strengthens the foreign currency against the home currency which makes imports of good and services more expensive as compared to exports and causes devaluation of home currency. The main objective of this paper is to find out how the current account deficit is influenced by different economic factors. Our regression model’s estimated results indicate that the percentage change in the volume of imports, foreign direct investments and total consumption are positively correlated and, on the other hand, exports, workers remittance, growth in agriculture and manufacturing are negatively correlated with the current account balance of Pakistan during the observed period 1972-2001.
文摘Regarding construction projects, no project is implemented exactly as planned. Changes in construction projects are common due to the dynamic nature of the construction process. It is necessary to use effective and appropriate tools by project management to support decision-making and control changes during all stages of project implementation. This study examined the effects of change orders through technical programs on construction projects in Jordan and focused on how to overcome these effects by making usual orders that can be handled by each of the contracting parties. Also, this study added an advantage by not addressing the negative effects of change orders, but it provided many positive effects of change orders by using technical programs method, which has not been yet researched in Jordanian studies in particular, and in global studies in general. The researcher used descriptive analytical method by interviews to collect data through nine questions to a random sample of 30 engineers selected form constructions projects in Jordan. The results related to the study questions on the effect of change orders through technical programs on construction projects in Jordan showed that, most of the study samples confirm that change orders through technical programs decrease the cost of the projects, cause no need for more materials, cause no delay in the completion schedule, enhances the quality of work, and increase the productivity of the work force. The study recommended applying integrated change management system with technical supports form different technologies, developing effective innovative and practical solution to manage change orders and increase training programs to qualify and increase engineering skills in dealing with ICT （information and communication technologies） program.
文摘Agricultural comprehensive development project is an important component of our country＇s financial expenditure. Making a reasonable evaluation of comprehensive agricultural development projects is not only to guarantee high quality of project implementation, but also of practical significance to the enhancement of our country＇ s comprehensive agricultural production capacity. Being based on the present situation and characteristics of the project, this paper has raised the general thinking about the overall performance evaluation for the project and analyzed the dimension factors in the evaluation system.
文摘Projects delay and cost overrun have become general facts in the construction industry. Project cost risk analysis considers the different costs associated with a project and focuses on the uncertainties and risks that may affect these costs. An implementation of PRM （project risk management） process on regional construction project has been carried out to maximize the likelihood of project meeting its objectives within its constraints. Qualitative and quantitative risk analyses have been carried out. The qualitative analysis is presented in a table that shows top ranked risks in Libyan construction projects based on probability-impact grid technique. In quantitative risk analyses, Mont Carlo simulation technique has been conducted to quantify and evaluate the overall level of risk exposure associated with the project completion cost. A project simulation uses a model that translates cost uncertainties into their potential impact on project objectives. A frequency curve model that represents simulation results of project completion costs has been constructed. The frequency curve model shows all possible outcomes of expected project cost at different probabilities. Project manager or decision maker can select the appropriate project budget. If a probability of 0.95 confident project budget is selected that means cost overrun risk can be minimized to a probability of 0.05. It is very helpful for project manager to take decisions based on information that shows project completion cost and its associated probability rather than usin single information of estimated cost.
文摘While trauma registries provide the mechanisms to collect comprehensive, timely and accurate data related to the injuries and evaluate trauma care systems, they have not been established in most developing countries. On the other hand, in complex projects that have large aims, a logical framework approach （LFA） can help summarize and describe the multiple branches of the project systematically, and elucidate the main goals, extensive objectives, activities and expected outcomes. Therefore a LFA can be used to design and guide trauma registry project management, to integrate the cultural, clinical and capacity variations among countries; and to ensure early alignment of the project＇s design and evaluation.
